| April 26, 2022

The Case for Private Networks in India

The recent recommendation from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) around providing an enabling framework for enterprises to build their own private networks is in line with other 5G markets, where governments are looking to drive the digitization of key industries. However, Indian operators see this as limiting their return on investment in the 5G spectrum. Looking at the example of private networks across Europe, and Germany in particular, we believe that Indian telcos shouldn’t see TRAI’s proposal as a threat. Rather, they should use the buzz around the spectrum for verticals as a way to get enterprises interested in digitalization.

The overall financial health of the Indian telecom industry remains fragile. Furthermore, operators’ ability to invest in upgrading their network is negatively impacted by low average revenue per user (ARPU) levels and high regulatory costs. As a result, India’s mobile performance is affected. According to the Speedtest Global Index™, in March 2022 India ranked 120 (out of 142 countries) with a 13.67 Mbps median mobile download speed vs. the global average of 29.96 Mbps. The 5G network rollout will require intensive capital  investment and allowing enterprises to have access to dedicated spectrum can potentially limit operators’ 5G-addressable revenue.

The case for 5G in manufacturing

On the consumer side, 5G will boost Indian mobile performance, as we have postulated in our recent article, new 5G launches in Asia Pacific point to a potential 10x increase in median download speeds (5G vs 4G-LTE). However, 5G will also deliver socioeconomic benefits in India, on account of a number of 5G use cases that could enable new applications across all sectors. According to GSMA Intelligence, 5G is expected to contribute around $455 billion to the Indian economy over the next 20 years, accounting for more than 0.6% of GDP by 2040. One of the sectors that stands to benefit from 5G is the manufacturing sector, representing 20% of the total benefit. Retail, ICT and agricultural sectors should also benefit.

The Indian government has already zeroed in on making India’s manufacturing sector more competitive on a global scene. As such, the “Make in India” goal is to make India self-reliant and also to increase the share of the manufacturing sector to 25% of GDP “in the coming years.”

As of now, this is a distant goal. China is still the world’s manufacturing superpower, accounting for 29% of global manufacturing output in 2020, followed by Japan (17%) and Germany (5%). All of these countries have embarked on digitization strategies.

In addition, manufacturing companies look to optimize and control production processes, improve safety, and reduce costs in order to maximize the return on investment. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated existing challenges and pain points for manufacturers, highlighting the need to improve supply-chain resilience and boost production speed and flexibility. However, even before the pandemic, the manufacturing sector was undergoing digital transformation – the so-called fourth industrial revolution or Industry 4.0, referring to the use of technologies such as machine learning, edge computing, IoT, digital twins, and new networks to aid automation and enable data exchange.

According to Ericsson, typical revenue increases when manufacturers digitize their processes come from increased throughput and quality (2–3%), while typical cost savings originate from improved capital efficiency (5–10%) and decreased manufacturing costs (4–8%). A proportion of manufacturers will need dedicated network resources to meet their transformation goals and ensure data isolation and security. According to the GSMA Intelligence Enterprise in Focus 2020 survey, 22% of manufacturers require location-specific coverage (e.g. factory, campus).

Historically, Wi-Fi has been the connectivity choice for private networks. However, mobile technologies such as 4G/LTE and 5G are better suited to Operational Technologies’ network requirements of high volume, high reliability, mobility, and always-on operations. 5G and 5G Standalone in particular offers the most benefits related to eMBB, massive IoT, and critical IoT. Additionally, enterprises decided to deploy proprietary networks to have more control over their networks; the increased security offered by isolating their data from public networks is an attractive benefit.

Private networks aren’t new 

A number of countries are looking to private networks to address Industry 4.0 objectives and awarding spectrum for vertical use e.g. Germany, Japan and France. According to GSA data, as of February 2022 there were 656 organizations deploying LTE or 5G private mobile networks. GSA’s data points to the manufacturing sector as a strong adopter of private mobile networks, with 111 identified companies involved in known pilots or deployments, which is up from 51 at the start of 2021.

Dedicated spectrum available for private mobile networks has already been allocated in France, the United States, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Germany is considered to be a poster child for Industry 4.0. Afterall, the term “Industry 4.0” was coined at Hannover Messe over a decade ago. It is therefore only natural to look to Germany and its approach to private networks. In Germany, the national regulatory authority (BnetzA) is promoting industrial policy and reserved 100 MHz in the 3,700-3,800 MHz for local networks, noting that the spectrum can be used in particular for Industry 4.0. “By awarding spectrum for local 5G networks, we are creating scope for innovation for enterprises,” stated Jochen Homann, Bundesnetzagentur President. As of April 15, 2022, the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) received a total of 208 applications for the allocation of frequencies for local 5G networks and granted the same amount.

We have commented on how the private networks landscape is developing in Europe here. Simply assigning spectrum to verticals isn’t enough to drive market adoption. In an upcoming analysis, we will discuss how the French government has prioritized 5G as an avenue to drive digital transformation of the economy via a number of funds. According to the GSA, there were a total of 66 private networks all together in France, Germany, and Japan, despite enterprises being able to acquire spectrum since 2019.

Despite the 208 applications that BNetzA received, the GSA has counted 45 private networks in Germany, with a majority distributed between three verticals: manufacturing (14), power and water utilities (11), and devices testing and lab as a service (seven).

It is important to note that globally, as per the latest GSA data, only 21% of networks were 5G only, and mostly composed of test networks. Until the 5G device ecosystem matures, the majority of private networks will remain 4G/LTE, though using equipment that is 5G ready. Only after the availability of industrial-feature-rich 5G release 16 chipsets, which will happen in the next few years, will the 5G deployments move beyond trials and proof of concept into full scale deployments. Germany is an outlier here: 5G and 5G SA are making headways in Germany. Audi, KUKA, Volkswagen, and Siemens take an active role in testing and deploying 5G SA private networks utilizing localized spectrum in the 3500 MHz band (n78).

The many routes to market

TRAI has proposed an enabling framework for enterprises to build their own private networks via a range of deployment scenarios, including spectrum leasing and dedicated spectrum. The Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) representing major telecom companies such as Bharti Airtel Ltd, Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd, and Vodafone Idea Ltd. opposed this, stating that TRAI should: “Disallow private enterprise networks for the financial viability and orderly growth of the telecom industry, which is more than capable of delivering  these services to businesses”.

Yes and no. Operators can utilize various deployment models, from public dedicated networks through hybrid networks (network slicing, public/private campus, private RAN with public core) to private networks. Within these various models, network slicing and edge computing add the benefits of QoS, privacy, security, and specific SLAs.

When it comes to private networks, the typical rules of engagement no longer apply, and with network virtualization continuing, the ecosystem of vendors has expanded beyond traditional telco players. Just recently Cisco entered this crowded market that already consists of operators, hyperscalers, startups, and equipment vendors. Amazon’s introduction of AWS Private 5G network is a good example of the growing “coopetition” trend. In some cases, AWS would work with operators to provide 5G core and edge computing capabilities, while in some others, it could compete to offer end-to-end solutions. Nokia is looking to address the enterprise demand in India via working with network operators, but also by working directly with enterprises, as Ricky Corker, Chief Customer Experience Officer, Nokia recently stated.

We can draw lessons by looking at the approach that European operators took when addressing the enterprise opportunity. Deutsche Telekom has been offering campus network solutions for enterprises since 2019, and now operates more than ten such local networks based on 5G non-standalone technology or LTE across Germany. In January 2022, the operator expanded its offering to include location-specific 5G mobile networks for companies based on 5G Standalone Technology (5G SA), powered by the Ericsson Private 5G portfolio. The operator can also position itself as a systems integrator (SI) for 5G private networks for Industry 4.0 by utilizing T-Systems’ credentials and its deal with AWS.

Similarly, Vodafone takes an active role in deploying private networks, and distinguishes three degrees of industrial control depending on a private network setup.

In the first scenario, a dedicated mobile private network (MPN) brings total control to the enterprise because everything stays on site. There is no interoperability with public networks. This is particularly well suited for mission- or business-critical applications that don’t need to interface with the public internet.

The second option is a hybrid private network, which is a blend of public and private infrastructure. It enables interoperability with public networks for those devices and users which move outside the private network, while at the same time giving the end user a choice regarding where the data is stored.

The third option, a virtual private network, uses a dedicated slice of a public 5G network. End-user control over the setup is reduced, but compared to the public network it has a dedicated network resource, and allows for greater data isolation, security and privacy, and further SLA customization (availability and reliability). According to Marc Sauter, head of mobile private networks for Vodafone’s business division, network slicing hinges on future releases of the 5G standard, available from next year. “That is when virtual private networks will be more relevant, and a new market will open up with smaller customers.” Vodafone is also very vocal about the importance of the ecosystem, and working on innovation. In its innovation hub in Milan, Vodafone works with developers and startups, and large companies can play around with 5G use cases.

Leveraging existing credentials and forming partnerships to go beyond core competencies can open up new markets for operators. Partners’ ecosystem is key, and to be successful,  operators need to partner across the ecosystem. As enterprises’ needs vary, having a broad portfolio of vendors that can address various verticals, technological, and coverage needs will only stimulate the growth of the market.

Indian telcos have already embarked on this journey. Airtel has partnered with Tech Mahindra for a joint 5G innovation lab to develop “Make in India” use cases for the local and global markets, including customized enterprise-grade private networks. These services will combine Airtel’s integrated connectivity portfolio of 5G ready mobile network, fiber, SDWAN, and IoT along with Tech Mahindra’s SI capabilities.Meanwhile, Vodafone Idea (Vi) joined forces with A5G Networks to enable industry 4.0 and smart mobile edge computing in India. They have jointly set up a pilot private network in Mumbai using existing 4G spectrum.

Rather than seeing spectrum for verticals as a threat, operators can use it as a way to get enterprises, in particular manufacturing companies, interested in digitalization. According to the FICCI-EFESO survey, 36% of organizations will implement “Use of Industry 4.0 technologies for predicting failures in machines, products and processes” in the next 1-2 years, while 22% have already done so. The opportunity is there for the taking.

To learn more about how Ookla® has worked with operators and industries to help plan for 5G growth, contact us.

Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.

| April 13, 2022

The Mixed Picture for 5G in Europe

Ookla® recently hosted a webinar on “Why is 5G in Europe Falling Behind, and what can we do about it?” We gathered representatives from two of Europe’s leading 5G operators, Three UK and KPN, to talk about their approach to 5G and some of the challenges they have faced. We were also joined by industry experts from the U.K. regulator Ofcom, leading equipment vendor Ericsson, as well as Counterpoint Research. Here is our summary of some of the key takeaways from that webinar.

5G makes headways in Europe … uptake disappoints 

Operators’ lack of interest in 5G cannot be blamed. According to GSMA Intelligence, a majority of European countries (34 out of 50) have already deployed 5G, and just over half of operators in the region (92 out of 173) have launched 5G networks. 

However, looking at 5G uptake measured as the proportion of 5G connections of total connections) Europe performs poorly with only 2.5% as of Q4 2021 according to GSMA intelligence. This places it well behind North America, China, Japan, and South Korea. While adoption will pick up over the next couple of years, Europe will still lag behind other regions. 

Factors driving 5G adoption


The best way to express the key takeaways from the discussion is to think about the factors that affect 5G adoption:

  • Network. This covers spectrum assignments, network roll out, and market structure 
  • Devices. Here this includes consumer devices such as smartphones, but as 5G scales there will be more dedicated industrial 5G devices in the market and other connected consumer devices e.g. AR/VR.
  • Use cases. The fact of the matter is that technology for the technology’s sake won’t sell. Unless there are appealing use cases leveraging the technology the end users will remain unconvinced. These could range from delivering broadband access to rural areas via 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) or private 5G networks for manufacturing plants. 

The many flavors of 5G

The fact that “5G is not one size fits all,” was highlighted throughout the panel. The key to understanding 5G is understanding the spectrum and there are two key considerations to keep in mind: speed performance and geographical coverage.

While mmWave is capable of delivering super-fast speeds — much faster than those that sub-6 GHz spectrum can support — sub-6 GHz signals are able to travel farther than mmWave, cover a greater geographical region, and provide deeper penetration within buildings. 

Operators’ 5G performance depends heavily on their 5G spectrum holdings. In some cases, in the absence of dedicated 5G spectrum or to supplement existing spectrum, operators can use Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS) to use the same spectrum band for different RAN technologies, which are allocated in real time – this in turn impacts 5G performance. 

Market structure and the role of government

The optimal market structure and role of governments in supporting the rollout of 5G remains a heavily debated topic. As Brian Potterill from Ofcom pointed out, governments and regulators are not in the best position to decide on targets, and that investment decisions should be left to the market to decide. As a result, Ofcom pursues a light-tough approach to 5G, working to enable the market to remain competitive. In addition, he downplayed the role of 5G targets, given the different flavors of 5G networks and the fact that unless tied to license obligations, they wouldn’t be binding. Despite this, the EU maintains key targets on 5G rollout for member states, a position we critiqued in our report 5G in Europe: EU Targets Require a Rethink.

For Gabriel Solomon of Ericsson, the main reason why Europe is falling behind on 5G lies in the investment environment, given the weighted average cost of capital remains higher than the return on invested capital in the region. He noted that there are huge sums of public money being made available via the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility, some of which is being directed by member states at improving connectivity. Beyond this investment, he outlined three main levers governments have to help spur 5G deployment:

  1. Spectrum. There is a need for a trade off between spectrum fees and incentives for operators to deploy networks more widely.
  1. Removing barriers to deployment. This is clearly an issue, with the EC recently announcing a new Connectivity Infrastructure Act designed to make barriers to passive infrastructure and backhaul much more available and affordable. In the U.K., the Government recently announced new plans to slash red tape from 5G roll out in a bid to help spur deployment. 
  1. Market structure. Half of European markets have four or more mobile operators. There is a clear desire for further mobile network consolidation which operators see as key in helping improve the investment case for 5G deployment. During Three UK’s recent 2021 results announcement, Robert Finnegan, Three UK’s Chief Executive Officer, warned that despite achieving positive results, “the U.K. market with four operators continues to remain dysfunctional and requires a structural change to improve the overall quality of infrastructure that U.K. customers should expect.”

KPN: The tale of 5G Availability

Within Europe, the Netherlands comes top in terms of 5G Availability (the proportion of users of 5G capable devices who spend a majority of their time on 5G networks). Only six European markets had 5G Availability above 20% by Q4 2021. Not surprisingly, the U.S. is in the lead with almost 50% 5G Availability, having started 5G deployment in the 600 MHz (low band) range. 

Erik Brands from KPN explained that they had a good starting point with over 99% nationwide 4G LTE coverage. In 2019, KPN embarked on a nationwide network modernization — a full upgrade of all equipment on every site, installing all available frequencies and making it technology neutral so they refarm frequencies by software. As a result KPN scores well on 5G coverage, partially because they have access to low band 5G spectrum (700 MHz). They have managed to extend 5G coverage to more than 80% of the country, including rural areas. Some of this is driven by the coverage requirement as part of the 700MHz licenses: a minimum speed of 8 Mbps in 98% of the cases in each municipality of the country in 2022.

While KPN scores well on 5G Availability, 5G performance is not yet at gigabit levels. This is mainly caused by the lack of available spectrum in the C-band, which is currently occupied by Inmarsat and local licenses. The Netherlands is very late clearing this band and it still isn’t clear when it is going to be auctioned. In time, KPN will need this spectrum to maintain quality and to enable other applications. KPN currently sees mmWave, which is also not available yet, as addressing more niche use cases that require very high bandwidth.

Three UK: “We can’t run as fast as we want to”

Three UK has a very “data hungry” customer base —  while their subscribers account for around 15% of the UK population, the network is carrying 30% of the traffic. Three UK benefited from having the largest, dedicated 5G spectrum — 140 MHz of frequency across several 5G spectrum bands, including a 100 MHz block of continuous spectrum in the 3.3-3.8 GHz band, which positions it well in terms of median download speeds compared to other U.K. operators — read our latest article to find out more about 5G in The U.K.

In order to fulfill their customers’ demand, the operator has embarked on a network transformation journey, consisting of upgrading all sites over time to 5G. They are also deploying C-band with Massive MIMO on 60% of all sites — targeting all major cities, towns and even villages covering 85-90% of total traffic on their network — Anil Darji, Three UK’s Chief Network Architect, called it “a capacity play.” In the remaining 40% of sites, which are rural and mostly coverage driven, the operator will utilize DSS and potentially refarm some of the 4G spectrum to 5G NR — this is “a coverage play” to get the 5G capabilities like reduced latency out there. 

Both operators pointed to a number of constraints in terms of deployment, including planning, regulation, site landlords, and aging infrastructure. Anil Darji mentioned that even once planning approval has been granted for a new site, some local councils can look to delay deployment through the process of requiring application for road closures. Three UK’s strategy is to upgrade all its sites and to build new macro sites to respond to growing demand. However, recent planning reforms fell short in terms of allowing them to deploy taller sites required for the deployment of all 4G & 5G spectrum, and he called for more government support and reforms to the planning process.

European 5G smartphone sales picked up strongly in 2021 

Jan Stryjak of Counterpoint Research struck a positive note on 5G smartphone sales in Europe, noting that 5G now accounts for a majority of smartphone sales in the region. However, Europe lags behind other advanced markets in smartphone adoption with the latest data for Q4 2021 showing 5G smartphones accounted for 60% of smartphone sales vs. 73% in North America and 79% across China, Japan and South Korea. Within Europe itself there is wide variation, with the U.K. having the highest ratio globally at 83%, while some Eastern European markets come in below 40%. 

5G is also moving down the smartphone price tiers. It is ubiquitous in the premium tiers (wholesale price of over $700) boosted by the iPhone 12 in Q4 2020 and iPhone 13 in Q4 2021, accounts for the majority in the mid tier ($250 – $499) and growing, where it is driven mostly by the Samsung A series. It is even growing fast in the budget tiers too ($100 – $249), thanks to affordable 5G devices from the likes of realme and Xiaomi sub-brand Redmi.

In time, smartphone sales will translate into a larger installed base of 5G devices and share of overall subscriptions. 

The importance of 5G use cases cannot be overlooked  

The vast majority of European 5G networks are Non Standalone (NSA), meaning that they still rely on the 4G LTE core network and therefore don’t offer the full advantage of 5G. So far, only four operators across three countries deployed 5G Standalone (SA), partially because most operators started 5G deployment by utilizing DSS, where 5G SA is less relevant. As operators move to focus more on massive MIMO using mid-band spectrum (which delivers a step change in capacity and throughput) then the functionality of SA becomes more attractive to use. Not surprisingly, the GSA says 46 operators across 27 counties are planning to deploy 5G SA. 5G SA also enables additional 5G capabilities beyond high speed such as  Ultra-Reliable Low-Latency Communication (URLLC)  and virtual network functions such as network slicing, which will in turn, enable new 5G use cases. 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is also one of key use cases for consumers, in areas with limited fiber rollout across Europe. 

Brian Potterill of Ofcom sees connectivity as enabling economic growth and productivity and in this context more connectivity is good, and 5G plays an important role as it enables higher bandwidth and lower latency. He says that it is important that regulators allow the market to function effectively and also sees regulators and governments playing an important role in helping to understand how customers — both consumers and enterprises — can take advantage of 5G and different use cases, and helping to bridge the information gap.

All in all, there is a clear agreement that “build it and they will come attitude” does not work with 5G, there is a need to educate the customers on the benefits that 5G brings and attract them with innovative use cases to persuade them to upgrade, both their devices and tariffs.

See the full webinar recording here.

Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.

| March 30, 2022

5G in The U.K.: Calls for Consolidation Grow

Key Takeaways

  • Operator Three UK led the U.K. market for 5G performance with a median download speed of 258.80 Mbps in Q3-Q4 2021.
  • EE led on 5G Availability at 19.3% during Q3-Q4 2021, but this remains low at a market level.
  • Like other European markets, the requirement to remove network equipment from Chinese vendors has negatively impacted the speed of 5G deployments in the U.K.
  • Based on the number of people per 5G base station, the U.K. lags behind other 5G pioneer markets, indicating a change in deployment is required.
  • U.K. regulator Ofcom has highlighted the need to drive greater mobile network capacity to meet future demand, with the release of mmWave spectrum and further network densification key levers. However, attention is likely to turn once again to market consolidation to help accelerate network densification — an area where Ofcom has felt the need to clarify its position.

5G network investment accelerating

The United Kingdom (U.K.) was among the first markets to launch 5G globally, with EE launching the 5G in May 2019. Since then, despite U.K. operators ramping up 5G investment, the market has been on par with many other European markets in terms of 5G performance, but the U.K. still lags behind 5G pioneers like South Korea and China as we saw in Q1-Q2 2021.

According to the Ofcom’s Connected Nations 2021 report, 5G network investment in the U.K. is accelerating, hitting £330 million in 2020 — an increase of over £150 million (88%) vs. 2019. Dense urban areas are mostly supported by high capacity C-band spectrum (awarded in 2018 and in 2021), increasingly augmented by hotspot deployments in suburban areas and around main transport corridors. The number of mobile base stations providing 5G services more than doubled last year — from 3,000 sites in 2020 to over 6,500 sites in 2021. Based on the U.K.’s population as of 2020, this would equate to over 10,000 people per 5G base station, placing it well behind South Korea, China, the EU average, and even the U.S. according to the EU 5G Observatory’s International Scoreboard.

In order to reduce costs and optimize network deployment, the U.K.’s mobile network operators already deploy and run a portion of their radio access network (RAN) via network sharing agreements. Mobile Broadband Network Limited (MBNL), is a 50-50 joint venture between EE and Three UK, to manage the design and operation of their shared network. Additionally, Cornerstone Telecommunications Infrastructure Limited (CTIL) is a 50-50 joint venture between O2 and Vodafone that owns and oversees the operators’ passive tower infrastructure. 

O2 and Vodafone announced in 2019 that they would share 5G- active equipment, such as radio antennas, in order to reduce the time to launch and cost effectively deploy 5G. This excludes around 2,700 sites in densely populated areas (in over 20 cities) where the operators will maintain separate active RAN components to give them greater autonomy and enable more flexibility to meet customer requirements. In January 2021, Vodafone transferred its 50% share to Vantage Towers.

Ofcom highlights need for greater network capacity

A recent discussion paper by U.K. regulator Ofcom illuminated its future approach to mobile markets, and while it shied away from further regulation, it did highlight the need to plan for more network capacity to meet future demand. Additionally, Ofcom’s discussion paper highlighted releasing further spectrum, looking to technological advances to improve spectral efficiency, and the need for further network densification. However, the challenge for operators lies in supporting the level of network investment required given the current mobile market structure in the U.K..

There is a clear desire for further mobile network consolidation in the U.K. and elsewhere in Europe, with recent examples including the agreed joint venture between MasMovil and Orange in Spain, and Iliad’s recent bid for Vodafone Italy. The last time the U.K. market saw mobile consolidation was in 2010 with the merger of T-Mobile and Orange to form EE. Since then, subsequent attempts to drive further mobile consolidation — Three UK’s planned merger with O2 in 2016 — have been blocked by Ofcom and the European Commission. During Three UK’s  recent 2021 results announcement, Robert Finnegan, Three UK’s Chief Executive Officer, warned that despite achieving positive results, “the U.K. market with four operators continues to remain dysfunctional and requires a structural change to improve the overall quality of infrastructure that U.K. customers should expect.”

Ofcom’s latest discussion paper alludes to a potential softening in its stance on mobile mergers, indicating that it would be “informed by the specific circumstances of that particular merger, taking into account how markets are evolving.” Given the strong move towards convergence, such as BT’s acquisition of EE and the more recent O2 and Virgin Media merger, further market consolidation cannot be ruled out. 

Freeing up further spectrum for 5G use remains a priority

Since early 5G deployments, all four operators in the U.K. have been utilizing mid-band spectrum for 5G, which is considered a spectrum “sweet spot” that offers both fast speeds and broad geographic coverage. In April 2021, every operator boosted their spectrum holdings across the 700 MHz and 3.6-3.8 GHz spectrum bands. O2, for example, has started using low-band spectrum for 5G, and has recently committed to invest at least £10 billion in the U.K., delivering 5G to over 2,000 sites across the country in 2021. The operator’s 5G coverage currently extends to 300 towns and cities and is set to reach 50% of the U.K.’s population with its 5G services in 2023. 

Operators have been also re-farming their legacy 2G and 3G spectrum for 5G and utilizing dynamic spectrum sharing (DSS) to facilitate dynamic use of 4G and 5G in the same bands. In December 2021, the government also announced the goal of switching off 2G and 3G networks by 2033 to free up spectrum for 5G. Ofcom’s recently published discussion paper on mobile networks and spectrum, identifies a large amount of mobile spectrum in the mmWave frequencies, which if allocated, will help boost network capacity. The regulator will consult on proposals to enable mmWave band in Q1 2022/23.

On the road to 5G standalone networks 

5G is currently rolled out in a non-standalone (NSA) mode in the U.K., meaning that it still relies on the 4G LTE core network. We expect all operators to upgrade to 5G standalone (SA) in time, with 5G core networks and 5G RAN, especially as additional 5G capabilities proliferate such as ultra-low latency communication (URLC)  and virtual network functions such as network slicing which will enable new 5G use cases. Operators in the U.K. are already trialing 5G SA:  in June 2021 Vodafone launched a commercial pilot of 5G SA in London, Manchester, and Cardiff, which built on an earlier trial carried out with Coventry University in the summer of 2020. In March 2022, Vodafone and Ericsson completed the U.K.’s first 5G SA network slicing trial. It was a lab demonstration of 5G network slicing with on-demand quality of service control for virtual reality use case in a retail store. The slice guaranteed a download speed of 260 Mbps and latency of 12 milliseconds. It isn’t clear when Vodafone plans to commercially launch 5G SA but Vodafone Germany became the first operator to launch 5G SA in Europe last year.

The recent 5G SA collaboration between EE, the BBC, and Ericsson, “The Green Planet AR Experience,” showcased the unique capabilities of 5G SA and edge computing. Additionally, EE plans to extend 5G coverage to 90% of the U.K. geographical area by 2028, which will be facilitated by the migration to a cloud-based core and the launch of 5G SA by 2023. EE is also planning to sell 5G SA in a way that will resonate with the customers and bring “technology to them in a really human way”. This is a move away from EE advertising the benefits of 5G as being able to get a real-time close shave with a robotic arm. However, Marc Allera, CEO of BT Consumer (EE’s parent company), does not rule out metaverse as a possible proposition blending entertainment, sports broadcasting, gaming, and e-commerce. 

Security worries pave the road to Open RAN 

Huawei kit needs to be removed from a number of European countries, including the U.K. In July 2020, in response to U.S. sanctions against Huawei, the Department for Digital, Culture, Media, and Sport (DCMS) announced that it overturned its earlier decision to exclude Huawei’s access from core and sensitive networks and, instead, completely remove Huawei’s kit from the U.K.’s 5G networks by the end of 2027. The government further pushed Open RAN expectations in December 2021 by setting a goal of having 35% of its telecom network traffic carried over Open RAN by 2030. This target is an aspirational one, rather than a hard mandated quota and is apparently supported by all mobile operators. It does come with a £250 million funding to support and accelerate the development of open and interoperable RAN, which is significantly less than €2 billion the German government has  specifically dedicated for Open RAN as part of €50 billion Package for the Future.

In January 2022, Vodafone switched on the U.K.’s first 5G Open RAN site in Bath, Somerset, which is the first of 2,500 planned sites and marks the beginning of the first scaled Open RAN project in Europe. EE’s parent company, BT Group, is more skeptical about the technology, with Neil McRae, MD of Architecture and Strategy and chief architect at BT Group, reminding the MWC 2022 audiences that there are different paths operators can take to drive down costs and improve performance. Nonetheless, BT is trialing Open RAN in Hull to see how the technology can improve the customer experience of EE’s 5G network. We have discussed the current progress on Open RAN across Europe in our latest article 5G in Europe: Reflecting on the Progress So Far and Mapping the Future and reflected on the discussions on this topic at MWC 2022 here. 

U.K. compared to its European peers 

In our recent post “5G in Europe: Reflecting on the Progress So Far and Mapping the Future”, we looked at how different European countries stacked up against each other and international peers. Using Speedtest Intelligence®,  we compared 5G in the U.K. against its peers’ 5G performance.France (190.17 Mbps) and Switzerland (188.27 Mbps) topped our list with the fastest median 5G download speeds  during the second half of 2021, followed by the U.K. (176.22 Mbps), Ireland (162.46 Mbps), Germany (155.87 Mbps), and Netherlands (142.55 Mbps). Interestingly, despite all of the French operators launching 5G service in December 2020, relatively late compared to other analyzed countries, they achieved top median download speeds due to substantial network investments. 

Switzerland, however, had the fastest median upload speed over 5G at 35.51 Mbps during Q3-Q4 2021, followed by the Netherlands (31.29 Mbps), Germany (25.80 Mbps), Ireland (21.20 Mbps), France (15.19 Mbps), and the U.K. (14.79 Mbps). 

The Netherlands had the highest 5G Availability among the U.K’s peers

The ranking shifts when it comes to 5G Availability — the percentage of users on 5G-capable devices that spend most of the time with access to 5G networks. The Netherlands had the highest 5G Availability at 45.3%, followed by Switzerland (32.2%), the U.K. (12.4%), Ireland (11.7%), and France (11.5%). 

The telecom regulator Ofcom in its Connected Nations report stated that the uptake of 5G-enabled handsets across the U.K. increased from 800,000 in 2020 to over six million in September 2021, accounting for around 10% of all devices. This is still far behind South Korea, which was the first country to commercialize 5G in 2019 and where the number of smartphone users on the 5G network reached roughly 20.2 million in November 2021, equivalent to 28% of mobile subscriptions.

According to Counterpoint Research, the U.K. is the leader in Western Europe in terms of 5G penetration of smartphone sales. In Q4 2021, 83% of smartphones sold in the U.K. were 5G enabled, compared to the regional average of 73%. In time, this will translate into a larger install base of 5G devices and share of overall subscriptions. 

Three UK was the fastest 5G operator in the U.K.

Three UK had the fastest median 5G download speed among top operators, achieving 258.80 Mbps during Q3-Q4 2021, far ahead of Vodafone (170.39 Mbps), EE (166.87 Mbps), and O2 (139.61 Mbps). Median 5G upload speeds across all operators were very similar with Vodafone at 17.86 Mbps, EE at 15.89 Mbps, Three UK at 13.94 Mbps, and O2 at 11.47 Mbps during Q3-Q4 2021. Three UK benefited from having the largest, dedicated 5G spectrum — 140MHz frequency across several 5G spectrum bands, including 100 MH block of continuous spectrum in the 3.3-3.8 GHz band. Three UK’s 5G coverage extended to more than a third of the U.K. population across 370 towns and cities with 2,500 live sites. The operator launched fixed wireless access (FWA) 5G services in August 2019, followed by mobile 5G services in February 2020, which were built upon the 5G-ready, cloud-native core network provided by Nokia in July 2019. Three UK has invested over £2 billion to transform its network and IT infrastructure, as part of a five-year program. 

EE leads on 5G Availability 

EE had the highest 5G Availability at 19.3% during Q3-Q4 2021, ahead of Three UK (14.4%), Vodafone (9.8%), and O2 (7.8%). In a bid to extend its 4G LTE network coverage, EE has deployed small cells to boost capacity in high-demand areas. Soon, the operator will begin trials to extend the use of small cells to 5G networks by upgrading Nokia’s AirScale portfolio.

5G in the U.K. is rapidly expanding and we’ll be following the market closely

Mobile operators are actively expanding 5G networks and the 5G adoption in the U.K. is growing, stimulated by greater smartphone availability and operators’ innovative services. We’ll be watching 5G performance closely in the U.K. using Speedtest Intelligence. If you want to learn more about how Speedtest Intelligence can help you benchmark your 5G performance against competitors, please inquire here.

Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.

| March 24, 2022

Why Is 5G in Europe Falling Behind and What Can We Do About It? [Webinar] 

5G performance across Europe has been a mixed story. While some operators offer lightning fast speeds exceeding 300 Mbps, 5G Availability, the percent of users on 5G-capable devices that spend the majority of their time on 5G, remains low. It is not a surprise, Europe lags behind North America and Asia Pacific in terms of 5G adoption. 

Register for our April 6 webinar to learn more about the current state of 5G in Europe relative to other leading markets.

In our article, “5G in Europe: Reflecting on the Progress So Far and Mapping the Future” we examined how European countries and players compared against their international peers, looked at the factors that influence 5G adoption, and laid out recent trends including private 5G and network virtualization. There is no denying that regulatory fragmentation across the European Union (EU) hampers its ability to achieve block-wide targets. The “Special Report 03/2022: 5G roll-out in the EU: delays in deployment of networks with security issues remaining unresolved” from the European Court of Auditors (ECA) warns that Europe is falling behind the targets set in the 2016 Action Plan. Furthermore, security concerns have had a knock-on effect both on the network and handset side of the 5G equation.

But… is it all bad news? Not at all. Almost 100% of premium smartphones sold in Q4 2021 were 5G enabled according to Counterpoint Research, and the proportion of 5G-enabled smartphones across all price ranges has continued to rise. Should we expect adoption to rapidly accelerate now that more lower-end smartphones are 5G enabled? Are operators doing enough to encourage consumers to upgrade to 5G? What more can regulators do to help drive 5G adoption? 5G isn’t only a consumer play and there is a larger enterprise opportunity at stake — are European operators ready to take advantage of 5G and its many use cases?

Ookla is hosting a webinar on Wednesday, April 6 at 7 a.m. PDT (10 a.m. EDT / 3 p.m. BST / 2 p.m. GMT) that will provide a deep dive into the European 5G market landscape. We’ll draw upon a panel of experts to highlight the outlook for the region and strategies to stimulate 5G growth. Don’t miss it! A recording will be provided for registrants who can’t make the live presentation. Click here to register for the webinar now.

Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.

| March 23, 2022

Ireland Puts 5G in the Fast Lane

The Irish government has recently launched a new national digital strategy, “Harnessing Digital – The Digital Ireland Framework,” to drive and enable digital transformation of the Irish economy and society. The government committed to enhance digital infrastructure by making connectivity available to everyone, including bringing 5G to all populated areas by 2030. We analyzed Speedtest Intelligence® data from Q3-Q4 2021 to see how Irish 5G speeds compared to those of Ireland’s regional peers and examined how Irish operators’ 5G networks performed across the country and against each other. 

Ireland has already awarded mid-band 5G spectrum 

Ireland was one of the first countries to assign spectrum in the 3.4 GHz – 4.2 GHz band, C-band spectrum, which is considered a sweet spot for 5G as it strikes a good balance between capacity and coverage. In June 2017, the Irish regulator, ComReg, granted new 3.6 GHz licenses to five operators for a total of €78m, consisting of €60.5m in upfront fees and around €17.7m in spectrum usage fees. The following companies purchased a total of 350 MHz of TDD spectrum, which has been assigned at a regional basis: 

  1. Vodafone Ireland received 85 MHz in rural regions and 105 MHz in the cities. The operator launched 5G services across five Irish cities in August 2019. 
  2. Eir Ireland obtained 80MHz in the rural regions and 85 MHz in the cities, and went live with 5G in December 2019.
  3. Three Ireland was the only operator to receive a nationwide spectrum — 100 MHz nationally — and switched on its 5G network in September 2020. 
  4. Imagine Communications Ireland (Imagine), a fixed wireless operator, won 60 MHz in each of Ireland’s rural provinces. This will offer fixed wireless broadband to homes that are outside of the high speed broadband coverage and within the National Broadband Plan intervention area. 
  5. Airspan Spectrum Holdings (Airspan), a new entrant to the Irish market focused on smart utilities, transportation, and public safety, obtained 25 MHz in rural regions and 60 MHz in cities. It has since been rebranded to Dense Air Limited. 

Provisional spectrum assignment in the 700 MHz band 

A decision has been made at the European level to allow operators to use the 694-790 MHz frequency band (the 700 MHz frequency band) across Europe. In Ireland, RTÉ has been utilizing this band to broadcast national digital terrestrial television (DTT) but that license expired in March 2020. In order to free up the 700 MHz spectrum bands, services had to vacate these frequencies. 

New regulation under the Wireless Telegraphy Act introduced in April 2020, allowed for the temporary assignment of licenses in the 700 MHz band to “help alleviate congestion on the telecommunications networks during the exceptional and extraordinary situation raised by the Covid-19 situation.” Initially, awarded for the period of three months, the temporary licenses have been extended to an indeterminate date when a spectrum auction will take place. Awarding a permanent 700 MHz license is critical, as low-band spectrum has very good propagation characteristics, which enable a wider geographic coverage footprint. This will be key to achieving the goal of covering populated areas with 5G by 2030.

Ireland 5G performance compared to its European peers 

In our recent post “5G in Europe: Reflecting on the Progress So Far and Mapping the Future”, we looked at how different European countries stacked up versus each other and international peers. Here we compare 5G in Ireland against its peers’ 5G. During the second half of 2021, France (190.17 Mbps) and Switzerland (188.27 Mbps) topped our list with the fastest median 5G download speed, followed by the United Kingdom (176.22 Mbps), Ireland (162.46 Mbps), Germany (155.87 Mbps), and Netherlands (142.55 Mbps). Interestingly, despite all of the French operators launching 5G service in December 2020, relatively late compared to other analyzed countries, they achieved top median download speeds due to substantial network investments. 

Switzerland, however, had the fastest median upload speed over 5G at 35.51 Mbps during Q3-Q4 2021, followed by the Netherlands (31.29 Mbps), Germany (25.80 Mbps), Ireland (21.20 Mbps), France (15.19 Mbps), and the U.K. (14.79 Mbps). 

The Irish regulator, ComReg published the number of mobile 5G subscribers for the first time in Q3 2021. 5G mobile voice and mobile broadband (MBB) subscriptions increased 31.4% quarter over quarter from 298,479 in Q3 2021 to 392,082 in Q4 2021, accounting for 3.9% and 5.0% of subscriptions at the same time. However, operators are still looking for ways to stimulate market adoption. For instance, in order to increase 5G market adoption, eir has announced that as of November 1, 2021, 5G was enabled on all market mobile plans at no additional cost

Cork had the fastest 5G download and upload speeds in Ireland 

Cork was the clear winner for 5G speeds across Irish cities, with a median 5G download speed of 339.98 Mbps during Q3-Q4 2021, a 14% year-over-year increase for all operators combined. Cork also had a median 5G upload speed of 32.82 Mbps. Three Ireland’s 5G network in Cork reached a median download speed of 508.96 Mbps. Cork was ahead of the rest of the cities, which partially can be explained by being home to pharmaceutical and IT companies such as Apple, Amazon, and IBM. Cork also benefited from connectivity with the EXA Express undersea cable.

Three Ireland was the fastest 5G operator in Ireland 

Despite being the last operator to jump on the 5G bandwagon in September 2020, Three Ireland has raced to the top in terms of median 5G download speed — achieving 238.70 Mbps in the Q3-Q4 2021, a 20% year-over-year increase. The median 5G upload speeds across all operators were very similar at 19.89 Mbps (Vodafone) and 22.35 Mbps for 3, and 22.24 Mbps for eir during Q3-Q4 2021. However, 3 Ireland has been hard at work with Ericsson to transform its Radio Access Network (RAN), rebuilding over 1,000 deployments. 3 Ireland also has the advantage of being able to use some of its excess capacity in the 1.8 GHz band to deploy 5G in rural villages and towns, a strategy that can take advantage of favorable propagation relative to 3.6 GHz. 

Ericsson has been the partner of choice for Three, not only in terms of network roll out but also in terms of looking for new ways to monetize 5G. As such, in May 2021, Three Ireland joined Ericsson’s global Startup 5G program as the first communication provider. The goal of the program is to leverage 5G as a platform for innovation and thus stimulate 5G commercialization and monetization by introducing operators to startups in the area of immersive learning, augmented reality (AR), and virtual reality (VR) among other emerging technologies. 

In July 2021, Ericsson and Three Ireland extended their collaboration to the field of Industry 4.0. They launched a strategic partnership with Glanbia Ireland to install an indoor 5G network to increase manufacturing efficiency of the Glanbia’s cheese plant in Ballyragget, County Kilkenny. However, this isn’t the first 5G private network in Ireland. In March 2021, Vodafone in partnership with Irish Manufacturing Research (IMR) rolled out a private 5G Standalone (SA) network utilizing Ericsson’s equipment. IMR, a not-for-profit manufacturing and energy research organization, plans to test smart manufacturing 5G use cases such as automated production lines, predictive maintenance, mobile robots, cobots, and AR and VR. These demonstrations of 5G capabilities in the manufacturing context are important to showcase the value digital transformation can bring to the sector by deploying private networks and creating bespoke use cases that enable greater latency and security.

eir tops the charts for 5G Availability 

The picture is slightly different when it comes to 5G Availability — the percentage of users on 5G-capable devices that spend most of the time with access to 5G networks. 5G Availability across Ireland was 11.7% in Q3-Q4 2021. eir is a clear winner with 26.6%, ahead of 3 (8.2%) and Vodafone (6.4%). 

eir’s €1 billion national investment programme includes roll outs for fiber broadband and 5G networks, as well as the expansion of 4G LTE networks. The operator has expanded the 5G Availability of its 5G NSA (Non-Standalone) network by using spectrum in the 1800 MHz and 3.5 GHz. In October 2021, eir announced that its 5G network was available to more than 70% of the Irish population (across 336 towns and cities), and increased this to 430 towns and cities during Q4 2021. 

Vodafone, has also expanded 5G to its prepaid customer base and introduced a 5G broadband option in 2021, utilizing Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS) in the 2.1 GHz band in partnership with Ericsson. 

The Irish Government looks to 5G to help it to realize its digital transformation ambitions, and to position Ireland as a prime destination for international businesses. While it’s still early days in terms of 5G adoption in the market, the Irish mobile operators are actively expanding 5G network speeds and coverage. Learn more about how Speedtest Intelligence can help you benchmark your 5G performance against competitors.

Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.

| March 9, 2022

Ookla at MWC: the Analyst Take

Two years after its cancellation in 2020, Mobile World Congress (MWC) Barcelona returned to its original timeslot. The war in Ukraine cast a shadow over the event, with many speakers condemning the ongoing military action and calling for peace. Despite this, the show must be deemed a success, with in excess of 60,000 attendees, pointing to strong desire from industry players to meet, do business, and talk about the future of the industry. MWC 2022’s overall theme was “Connectivity Unleashed”, and looked to showcase how mobile connectivity is transforming industries and wider society. 

Our recent article, 5G Come of Age: Five Predictions for 2022, outlined our view on the major trends which would drive industry debate at MWC. A number of these were front and center of the show, including a major focus across the ecosystem on reducing the environmental impact of 5G, and on network deployment models (including private networks). The surprise was that there was little to no discussion of 6G, with much of the network technology debate centered on improvements to 5G. However, the mantle of longer-term technology “hot topic” has clearly shifted from 6G to the Metaverse. While still an emerging topic, there was clear excitement at the emergence of a true B2C use case for high-capacity, low-latency 5G networks.

All in all, it was great to be back. By convening players from across the industry, MWC helps drive industry debate more than any other telecom conference, while allowing those who follow the industry closely the opportunity to test viewpoints and assumptions, and also to take stock. We’ve summarized our key takeaways below. 

The race to Net Zero

Telecoms was one of the first industries to commit to Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050. Not surprisingly, it was a clear discussion topic and there were many sustainability related propositions on display. In fact, energy-efficiency KPIs are built into 5G and future 6G standards under IMT-2020 specifications. Asian operators that have already seen large 5G network build ups have shared their perspective on how decarbonisation efforts are not limited to network equipment, operations and data centers but also include office buildings. KT mentioned that it has decreased total power consumption 13%-23% from its 5G network radio units, achieving financial savings of 6.8 billion won (US$5.6 million) and removing 26,000 tonnes of CO2

Allison Kirkby, president and CEO of Telia shared how IoT can uncover sustainability and how going one step further and creating a circular economy can have further benefits. Telia’s data mapping project, which utilizes collated and anonymized data proved to be an effective tool to monitor the pandemic and can also be used to design efficient transport routes, therefore reducing emissions. 

Network equipment vendors also came with products that address sustainability goals. Nokia introduced its Liquid Cooling AirScale portfolio that reduced the energy required to cool a base station; while Ericsson announced seven new RAN products and solutions reducing power consumption by 25%. 

Open-RAN makes inroads

Open-RAN’s poster child, Rakuten Mobile, has discussed how its desire to “democratize wireless connectivity” led it down the Open-RAN path. Rakuten has announced that its subsidiary Rakuten Symphony and Cisco are joining focus and signing Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for a joint go to market offer combining Cisco mobile routing switching and automation portfolio and Rakuten’s Open-RAN, orchestration and full suite of Symworld application. It has also announced the acquisition of U.S.-based cloud native networking specialist Robin.io, an “application store for kubernetes.” 

There is, for sure, a lot of excitement about Open-RAN especially in Europe and we have discussed the current status of Open-RAN in our latest research. However, while Open-RAN is a great example of industry collaboration, there are still challenges that need to be addressed, such as integration and security, as pointed out by Fujitsu’s SVP, Greg Manganello. Open-RAN is also not the only way ahead, Neil McRae, MD of Architecture and Strategy and chief architect at BT Group, reminded the audiences that there are different paths operators can take to drive down costs and improve performance. 

Metaverse: Excitement but challenges aplenty

MWC has always been a forward-looking conference, but this year’s event was a little different. Instead of looking ahead to the next generation of network tech (6G), it was the Metaverse which permeated headlines, show media and many company booths. Examples at the booths we visited ranged from re-badged VR experiences (akin to those demoed at previous MWCs) to examples of volumetric video. Really these served to highlight that the concept of Metaverse is still in its early days. What’s refreshing for the industry is that with the Metaverse we are moving from what was hitherto a product push of new technology (5G/AR/VR etc), to an emerging set of use cases (both consumer and enterprise) which will then drive discussion of their technology requirements.

On Monday, February 27, Meta released a statement from its CEO Mark Zuckerberg, that “creating a true sense of presence in virtual worlds delivered to smart glasses and VR headsets will require massive advances in connectivity, bigger than any of the step changes we’ve seen before.” Some of these requirements will be met by continued advances in 5G, but will also inevitably feed into how 6G networks are framed. For network operators however, a familiar issue looms large — that of the business model to support the level of network investment Meta is calling for. Only a few weeks before MWC began, the CEOs of Europe’s largest operator groups (Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica, and Vodafone) released a statement calling the current situation unsustainable, and that “as things stand, network operators are in no position to negotiate fair terms with these giant platforms due to their strong market positions, asymmetric bargaining power and the lack of a level regulatory playing field.” 

While it’s early days, it will be interesting to see how the concept of the Metaverse shapes 5G and future network technology, but also more importantly how the industry solves this perennial business model dilemma.

Growing interest in private 5G networks

As 5G use cases came to the fore, so did the private 5G networks. A range of operators and vendors showcased their private networks offering at the show. Orange, Vodafone, Telstra, Verizon, and AT&T were just some of the telcos who were showcasing and discussing private 5G pointing to the importance of private networks as a way to address  enterprises’ needs. Vendors made a slew of announcements and partnerships. Qualcomm and Microsoft partnered up to deliver an End to End (E2E) private 5G solution consisting of Qualcomm’s 5G hardware with Azure Private MEC. Cisco announced its Private 5G as-a-Service that combines 5G, IoT, and Wi-Fi under one umbrella and introduces Open-RAN via a collaboration with JMA and Airspan. HPE combined a private 5G network with its Aruba WiFi networks promoted as ​​“5G in a box.” 

New devices announced despite chip shortages

MWC used to be very much a smartphone show. It is so much more now, with a range of connected devices from large (think cars) to small (sensors) on the show. Device OEMs Qualcomm, Oppo, Samsung, and others, had a few announcements such as Oppo’s Air Glass wearables, Nokia’s C-series, and Lenovo’s new ThinkPad x13. However, the connectivity that permeates every aspect of society heavily relies on chipsets. Most blame the COVID-19 pandemic for the disruption of the supply chains and the resultant chipset shortages, but Qualcomm president and CEO Cristiano Amon believes that this was unavoidable due to a growing number of connected devices. In his keynote speech, he welcomed the state involvement in the shape of the European Chips Act but also the Chips for America act as a way to increase the Western world manufacturing capacity. Qualcomm is still experiencing “more demand than supply” but it foresees this to lessen towards the end of the year.

Please get in touch if you’d like to speak to us about any of these industry trends.

Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.

| February 23, 2022

5G in Europe: Reflecting on the Progress So Far and Mapping the Future

Having recently published our five 5G predictions for 2022, we now turn our focus on the current 5G landscape in Europe, examining how European countries and players compare versus their international peers. We will also look at the factors that influence 5G adoption, e.g. spectrum assignments and recent trends in terms of private 5G and network virtualization. While a lot of progress have been made so far, and some operators offer lightning speeds, the picture is mixed across the continent and the ambitions set by the European Union remain just that. Ambitions. We have already reflected on the progress towards the EU’s 5G Action Plan targets in “5G in Europe: EU Targets Require a Rethink. In Special Report 03/2022: 5G roll-out in the EU: delays in deployment of networks with security issues remaining unresolved the European Court of Auditors (ECA) warns that Europe is falling behind the following targets set in the 2016 Action Plan: 

  • 5G to be rolled out across all urban areas and all major transport routes by 2025
  • Further amended in March 2021, to achieve EU-wide 5G coverage by 2030

The audit shows that there are delays in 5G network rollouts and in transposing the EU’s objectives into member states’ national 5G strategies or broadband plans. The ECA also warns that this could result in a digital divide between different parts of the EU in terms of quality and ability to access 5G services. 

In the article below we will examine the following:

  • Current 5G landscape in Europe
  • 5G performance across Europe 
  • Private 5G networks on the horizon 
  • Addressing the virtualization challenge at the EU level

Current 5G landscape in Europe

According to GSMA Intelligence data, 84 operators deployed 5G services in 31 countries as of January 2022. The State of Digital Communications report published by the European Telecommunications Network Operators’ Association (ETNO) states that the uptake of 5G in Europe accounts for only 2.8% of the total mobile connections, compared to 13.4% in the United States and 29.3% in South Korea: despite being available to 62% of the population.

​Spectrum plays a critical role in 5G deployments.

As per the EC 2016 5G Action Plan, countries across the EU were meant to make low-band spectrum available for use by June 30, 2020, and mid- and high-band spectrums by December 31, 2020. Yet, as the chart shows, four countries out of 30 analyzed are yet to assign spectrum. The delays related to spectrum assignment stem from multiple reasons ranging from the impact of COVID-19 on schedules to cross-border coordination with non-EU countries to weak demand from the operators’ side.  

3G network sunsetting advancing 

As operators look to optimize their network operations and costs and refarm spectrum for 4G and 5G, the pace of 2G/3G network shutdowns is increasing. However, the situation across Europe is more complicated than elsewhere. Based on public announcements, European operators will support 2G in the short term, phasing out 3G instead. The reasons for this are long term contracts with enterprises such as utility companies and automotive OEMs that need the 2G networks to be maintained but also eCall (emergency call) obligations. All new vehicle model types approved from March 31, 2018 and sold in the European Union are equipped with eCall, which uses circuit-switched services on 2G/3G network. 

A case in point being Vodafone U.K.’s recent announcement about phasing out 3G starting in 2023, while still offering 2G until the 2030s to support roaming and M2M/IoT devices. ​​Vodafone isn’t alone — Telefónica Deutschland (O2) announced last year it has accelerated the shutdown of its 3G network in various regions of Germany. 

5G performance across Europe

The important question is whether delays in spectrum assignments and supporting multiple network generations have affected the operators’ ability to deliver on 5G’s promise of faster speeds.

Comparing median 5G download speeds, it is apparent that the United Arab Emirates and South Korea are far ahead of the pack with over 500 Mbps median download speed in Q4 2021 according to Speedtest Intelligence®. However, Bulgaria, Norway, Saudi Arabia, and Sweden also made it to the 300 Mbps+ club.

In some cases, in the absence of dedicated 5G spectrum or to supplement existing spectrum, operators are using Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS) to use the same spectrum band for different RAN technologies, which are allocated in real time. For instance, Swisscom has announced that it covers 99% of the country’s population with 5G, which borrows spectrum from its LTE network. The operator said that its 5G service on the 3.5 GHz (C-band) spectrum reaches 62% of the Swiss population. C-band spectrum is considered a sweet spot for 5G, as it strikes a good balance between capacity and coverage. 

The picture is slightly different when it comes to 5G Availability — the percentage of users on 5G-capable devices that spend most of the time with access to 5G networks. Not surprisingly, the U.S. is in the lead with 50% 5G Availability, having had 5G networks for almost three years and a large pool of customers with 5G capable devices. Most recently after much ado, Verizon and AT&T have finally launched 5G in mid (C-band) in an effort to catch up with T-Mobile’s 5G performance.

Within Europe, the Netherlands comes first, followed by Cyprus and Bulgaria. During its Q4 2021 results announcement KPN announced that it has modernized over 4,000 sites to date, and that its 5G network already covers more than 80% of the population using 700 MHz spectrum. The operator’s 5G strategy is focused on enabling a wider ecosystem but also on providing differentiating services for B2B customers in specific industries. 

Telemach Slovenia topped the charts in terms of median download speeds over 5G in Q4 2021. The operator is combining existing LTE spectrum with the 3.5 GHz and 700 MHz spectrum awarded in April 2021. Another operator from the United Group, Vivacom Bulgaria, also fared very well in this ranking. In April 2021, the operator won 100 MHz in the 3.7-3.8 GHz band for BGN4.6 million (€2.35m) but it had already launched the 5G network before with a temporary license in November 2020. András Pali, Vivacom CTO in an interview stated that the operator plans to invest 120 million in infrastructure in 2021. Vivacom utilizes DSS combining frequencies in 1.8, 2.1 and 3.6 GHz bands for 5G, so there is no compromise between coverage and speed.  

Swedish operators perform well in the ranking – three out of the four national operators rank as the top 10 fastest European players. Whilst Cyta has came in as the seventh fastest 5G provider, the operator has been recognised as the fastest mobile network in Europe in November 2021.

Private 5G networks on the horizon in Europe

We postulated in our recent blog that 5G networks will become a platform for innovation.

Enterprises, however, have a range of choices to secure 5G spectrum:

  • Public networks with SLAs 
  • Public networks with network slicing or local infrastructure (edge computing) 
  • Private (non-standalone) network utilizing either their own or operator-owned spectrum.

Germany has been the hotbed for the localized spectrum. German industrial players such as Siemens and Bosch, who have been at the forefront of the Industry 4.0 movement, have already been awarded 5G spectrum and are experimenting with private 5G networks. For instance, Bosch put its first campus network into operation at its Industry 4.0 lead plant in 2020, and it is testing 5G applications at 10 plants worldwide. 

Other European countries have followed suit in assigning 5G spectrum for private networks including: France, the U.K., Sweden, Finland, and Croatia. It is important to note, though, that until the 5G devices ecosystem matures, the majority of private networks will continue to be 4G/LTE, despite using equipment that is 5G ready. Fortunately, private wireless using 4G/LTE can power the majority of OT use cases as it brings major improvements in capabilities vs legacy wireless technology. 

In its latest private networks (Q4 2021) count, Nokia sees a similar trend. According to the latest data shared by Nokia, 87% of customer networks were 4.9G/LTE, 13% were 5G only— mostly composed of test networks for universities and deployments in countries where the vertical spectrum is more suitable for 5G private wireless — while the remainder had both technologies — often made of customers running the main operations with 4G/LTE while trialing and validating 5G in their labs/part of their operation. Nokia also anticipates chipsets based on Release 16 to come to market in 2023, which is slightly later than previously expected. This will result in the ability to start validating Release 16 5G industrial features (reliable latency) to convince industrial OEMs of the capabilities of 5G. Release 17 and later releases are expected to power new innovative use cases and to integrate 5G in their systems/machines/etc., but the timeframe is not known at this point in time.

Vodafone is one of the operators that is upbeat on the potential for private networks in Europe stating that a million companies in Europe could benefit from private mobile networks by the end of the decade

Addressing the virtualization challenge at the EU level 

Networks are increasingly becoming virtualized and disaggregated. Rakuten was the first operator to disrupt the established RAN market and has been joined by Dish Network and German 1&1 Drillish, which is working with Rakuten and NEC. 

Open-RAN Deployments
Company Supplier Date Application Notes
KDDI (au) Samsung and Fujitsu 2022 Commercial 5G SA Open-RAN site powered by virtualized Radio Access Network (vRAN) in Kawasaki, Kanagawa prefecture
Vodafone UK Dell, Intel, Wind River and Samsung 2022 5G Open-RAN site in Bath, UK
BT Nokia 2022 RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC) Open-RAN trial in Hull, UK
Telefonica NEC 2021 Open-RAN trials Spain, Germany, U.K. and Brazil
Orange Samsung, Dell, Intel and Nokia 2021 Testing interoperability between components Open-RAN lab
Deutsche Telekom Dell, Fujitsu, Intel, Mavenir, NEC and Supermicro 2021 Multi-vendor, including massiveMIMO capabilities “O-RAN Town” in the city of Neubrandenburg, Germany
NTT DoCoMo Fujitsu, NEC and Nokia 2021 Multi-vendor interoperability for 4G and 5G base stations
1&1 Drillisch AG (greenfield) Rakuten and NEC 2021 Open-RAN 5G network Goal to serve 25% of the German population by 2025 and 50% by 2030 with Open-RAN network
Dish (greenfield) Altiostar, Mavenir and Fujitsu 2020 Open-RAN software integration
Rakuten (greenfield) 2020 Cloud native solutions

Many European markets have banned Chinese network equipment, and a number of European telcos are in the process of removing existing kits from their networks. Although this is good news for European vendors and smaller players, leading European operators voiced concerns that more actions are needed and have called for EU support. In November 2021, five leading telco groups: Deutsche Telekom (DT), Orange, Telefonica, Telecom Italia (TIM), and Vodafone Group, published a joint report to highlight the urgency of collaboration on Open RAN. The report, which is aimed at policymakers, EU member states and the wider ecosystem, concludes that in order for Europe to remain competitive in the 5G but also in the 6G era, Open RAN has to become a pillar of the Industrial Policy and Digital Compass strategy. The report also highlighted the risk of Europe falling behind the rest of the world — there are 13 major Open-RAN players compared to 57 elsewhere — with the majority of European telcos at the early stages of development without commercial relationships in place. These operators are active proponents of Open-RAN. In June 2021, they also voiced their Open-RAN technical priorities to foster ecosystem development. Open RAN Technical Priority Document represents the joint requirements of DT, Orange, TIM, Telefonica, and Vodafone, following the MOU they signed earlier. The whitepaper is designed to show vendors where to focus to enable European deployments based on operators’ timelines. It is important for telcos to work in collaboration with vendors so that everyone has a similar set of expectations — including support for “mix and match” integration models to avoid vendor lock-in.

The disaggregation and virtualization of RAN is closely linked with edge computing since Open-RAN can be deployed in a cloud environment using virtualized or containerized network functions. This opens up opportunities for further innovation. In recognition of that, the UK set a goal of having 35% of its telecom network traffic carried over Open-RAN by 2030. Vodafone switched on the first U.K. 5G Open-RAN site and opened a dedicated R&D center in Malaga, Spain to accelerate the digital, supported by the investment of €225 million over the next five years.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, chipset shortages have affected industries, and although telco has fared relatively well, sectors such as automotive have been much harder hit (car production has decreased by one third in 2021). However, the EU is looking to bring this dependency closer to home, providing significant funding in the form of the digital fund, to bring chip manufacturing to Europe. Intel has committed to spend €80bn expanding its EU manufacturing capacity and just recently the EC has proposed the European Chips Act to facilitate achieving is ambition of doubling the EU’s share in global production to 20% in 2030. This could have a major impact on 5G in Europe, so could have other initiatives to improve 5G infrastructure such as 5G coverage along cross-border corridors and 5G for smart communities. Lastly, access to skills and talent in emerging technologies (AI, ML) also suffers from uneven geographical spread. Partnerships will be critical and educational programmes will be needed to bring the talent home to ensure Europe doesn’t fall behind in this area too, especially when it comes to developer skills.

Ookla® will be at MWC Barcelona 2022 later this month. Come visit us at our Stand 2I28 in Hall 2, to talk with us about the 5G trend. 

Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.

| February 3, 2022

5G Comes of Age: Five Predictions for 2022

2022 will see work start on defining 5G-Advanced (Release 18), while further spectrum will be assigned for 5G use, new networks rolled out (including private 5G) as well as testing and deployment of Open RAN, standalone (SA) 5G, mmWave, and use of the public cloud. All of this investment stems from the fact that 5G has been deemed to be a transformative technology … but how close are we to that reality? In the lead up to Mobile World Congress (MWC), we reflect on what operators and the wider ecosystem will focus on at the event and beyond when it comes to 5G. If you’d like to know more about these trends and more, we are happy to discuss them in person at MWC or virtually.

As 5G scales, global average speeds will fall and disparities widen

5G continued to scale during 2021, with the Ookla® 5G Map™ recording 5G deployments in 116 countries as of December 31, 2021, up from 99 countries on the same date a year ago. 2022 will see further spectrum auctions in key 5G bands, and further launches, extending 5G’s geographic reach to large but lower-ARPU markets in Latin America, Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and developing areas in Asia Pacific. Characterized by higher population density, lower ARPU and lower levels of fiber backhaul penetration, growth in new markets is likely to drive global 5G median speeds downwards. At the same time, 5G will offer significantly faster speeds than current 4G networks provide in these regions, and in many cases, 5G will help relieve the pressure on over-congested networks. It will also lead to lower average prices for 5G smartphones globally as vendors target these new markets.

Over the course of 2022, we’ll witness further deployments of SA 5G and in mid- and high-frequency spectrum, which will see some markets like the United States begin to play catch-up internationally, while extending the lead of others. We already see huge variation in 5G performance between markets — more so than any cellular technology to date — and even between competing in-market operators. Our end of year wrap up piece on 5G, Growing and Slowing: The State of 5G Worldwide in 2021, examined city-level 5G network performance and found that Seoul, South Korea was the fastest 5G market in Q3 2021 with a median download speed of 530.83 Mbps, while Brasilia, Brazil underperformed, recording only 58.81 Mbps. While backhaul infrastructure can be a bottleneck, particularly in more developing markets, we see two key levers by which regulators and operators can help drive performance improvements: spectrum availability in a combination of low, mid, and high bands and the level of network densification. The recent launch of 5G in the C-band by Verizon Wireless in the U.S. is a prime example, with Ookla®  Speedtest Intelligence® data showing an uplift in early speeds, but still leaving it behind market leader T-Mobile. 

Reducing the environmental impact of 5G is top of the agenda

We’ve already seen considerable attention from vendors and operators as they look to optimize network energy use and this will continue to be a key focus point for 2022 and beyond. While 5G itself is more efficient than 4G per unit of traffic (90% according to a joint study by Nokia & Telefonica), the sheer level of traffic it will support is projected to increase total network energy consumption by approximately 160% by 2030 according to ABI Research. With energy costs at record highs globally and the environmental impact of related emissions rising (despite on-going moves to decarbonize energy grids), the need to make 5G networks more energy efficient is only increasing. 

Putting parts of the RAN to sleep when demand is low is one key energy saving method, where operators can use machine learning and AI to predict traffic patterns and power down individual radios in a MIMO deployment — or even put entire cell sites to sleep. Maintaining legacy networks puts additional pressure on operator margins, while also perpetuating inefficiencies in terms of energy use. Planned generational sunsetting for 2G and 3G will see further spectral assets being made available for 5G, while also transitioning legacy connections to the more efficient technology. 2021 has seen the largest number of networks sunset so far — with 33 set to be turned off according to GSMA Intelligence — and this trend will continue in 2022.

Spectrum ownership and deployment models fall under the spotlight  

2022 will start to see the effectiveness of new models of 5G spectrum and network ownership weighed, starting with the Single Wholesale Network (SWN). Governments and regulators worldwide see 5G as a means to accelerate the digital transformation of their industries and foster economic growth. That’s why we see them playing a much more visible role in the 5G era, looking to spur deployment by providing incentives, easing regulatory and planning bottlenecks, and ensuring timely access to key spectrum bands. We’re also seeing new and in some cases recycled spectrum and network ownership models come to the fore, with innovative models of spectrum assignment like the CBRS band in the U.S.  and the allocation of spectrum to verticals (e.g., manufacturing in Germany). 2021 has already seen a number of mobile private networks launched and this trend will continue in 2022. The Government of Malaysia, having allocated spectrum to a special purpose vehicle (the Digital Nasional Berhad ) to deploy a single wholesale 5G network, is now reconsidering its approach to 5G deployment, with a decision due by the end of January. All eyes will be on the outcome of this decision, given the checkered history of SWNs to date, but it could provide an interesting case study for other markets to consider when launching 5G if successful.

Standalone 5G’s improvements to latency and upload performance begin to bear fruit

Speedtest Intelligence data clearly shows that headline 5G download performance trumps upload performance for network operators. While historically demand has been largely asymmetric, the trend to remote working as a result of the pandemic and continued growth in social media use and video calling increases the reliance on network uplink performance. Over time, we’re likely to see network operators begin to place more emphasis on differentiating their performance across both download and upload speeds. However, in the short term, we’ll start to see upload performance enhancements driven by the implementation of carrier aggregation where it allows operators to migrate uplink and control channels to lower-frequency bands, thereby expanding the reach and capacity of 5G networks, as well as the introduction of 256QAM and MIMO for uplink connections. 

However, speed is just one side of the 5G story. Release 16 brings about additional capabilities in terms of latency and density. Starting in 2022, 5G technology will go beyond pockets of high-speed mobile broadband to deliver low latency, high density, industry specific applications that make use of cloud and edge technologies to deliver widely available and immersive 5G consumer capabilities. Even though there are no concrete timelines for 5G network slicing commercial solutions, Google’s  recent Android 12 announcement brought network slicing one step closer to becoming a commercial reality. Google has already been testing networking slicing with Nokia and Ericsson, and Taiwan’s Far EasTone has conducted proof-of-concept trials using Android 12 devices connected to multiple 5G slices utilizing URSP.

5G networks become a platform for innovation 

MWC will showcase the ways enterprises are utilizing 5G technologies to change business models and create new value. 5G has been designed as a platform play from its inception, bringing together cloud and edge technologies into compelling services. Networks are increasingly becoming virtualized, as telcos consider hosting non network-related applications and moving more assets (such as network functions) to the public cloud in order to increase flexibility and reduce costs. Over the course of 2022, we’re likely to see more operators follow in Dish’s footsteps, which in April 2021 contracted AWS to provide RAN and core infrastructure for its cloud-native, open 5G network. To make this happen at scale, partnerships between hyperscalers and the wider ecosystem is a necessity: AWS, Microsoft, and Google, are already recruiting operators to their respective clouds across core as well as edge estates, as exhibited by the large number of partnerships signed over the past year.

5G has also been designed with enterprises’ requirements in mind. As such, 5G’s improvements in terms of lower latency, faster transmission speeds, and increased network capacity (massive IoT) open the door to digital transformation of enterprises, and what’s more important, enable new use cases. 5G SA offers the most benefits, allowing support for a wide range of devices and applications with more demanding bandwidth requirements, including wireless robots and real-time video surveillance, compared to Wi-Fi and 4G. 

That’s the theory but how are things working out in practice? RootMetrics® recently measured the performance of T-Mobile’s 5G SA vs NSA in Las Vegas. T-Mobile’s 5G SA network delivered speeds over twice as fast as its speed on NSA 5G. In the future, 5G SA will also deliver time-sensitive networking for high-precision devices. As operator deployments of 5G SA networks scale, so too will enterprise adoption of advanced 5G features such as edge computing and network slicing. Operators are already looking for ways to innovate and monetize 5G, with Softbank leveraging its 5G Consortium, consisting of vertical players, experts, and 5G partners, “to support advanced healthcare, automated driving and other next-generation societal infrastructure”.  

Ookla will be at MWC Barcelona 2022 later this month. Come visit us at our Stand 2I28 in Hall 2, to talk with us about the future of 5G.

Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.