Sylwia Kechiche, formerly Principal Industry Analyst, Enterprise at Ookla. Previously Principal Analyst, IoT and Enterprise at GSMA Intelligence, where she was responsible for the development of IoT & Enterprise product, including market sizing, custom consulting, survey work and report writing.
In our recent analysis of 5G performance across Europe, we noted that challenger mobile operators often outperform incumbents — strong results from Three across its footprint are proof of that. This article examines the secret sauce behind Three’s performance across three European countries — the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Austria.
Key takeaways
Dedicated 5G spectrum matters. Three’s approach to spectrum is similar across the board — it uses dedicated 5G spectral resources, and it has access to at least 100 MHz contiguous spectrum in C-band, which is the ITU’s minimum technical requirement to meet 5G performance requirements.
Network investment pays off. Three continues to focus on 5G network investment, which in turn helped to drive 5G performance.
Sustainability futureproofs networks. Three looks at several energy efficiency initiatives, including smart network “sleeping mode” and retiring legacy technologies to create a network that’s ready for tomorrow’s demands.
Three leads on speeds
Austria, Ireland, and the U.K. belong to the 5G High Performers cluster, which means that they share many of the characteristics of 5G leaders — markets with median 5G download speeds typically greater than 300 Mbps — having made an adequate spectrum allocation for 5G use and fostered competition between operators, which has helped spur network investment. However, they lag behind 5G Leaders based on their level of network densification. Using Speedtest Intelligence® data, we analyzed 5G performance in Q1 2023 across Austria, Ireland, and the U.K. Three was a leading operator in each of these countries for median 5G download speed.
3UK was 2.2 times faster than the median 5G speed for the U.K., 3 Austria surpassed the country-level performance by 1.36 times, while Three Ireland was 64% faster than the median country-level 5G download speed. Three was a late entrant into the telecom scene — having launched 20 years ago in March 2003 — often skipping 2G network rollout and being the first company to introduce “All you Can Eat” plans.
Three’s approach to spectrum pays off
As our previous analysis shows, access to a dedicated 5G C-band spectrum enabled faster download speeds, especially if such spectrum is contiguous. The ITU minimum technical requirements to meet 5G performance requirements identify at least 100 MHz channels per operator. All Austrian operators have access to just that: 3 Austria 100 MHz spectrum and Magenta 110MHz, nationally. A1 has access to a block of 100-140 MHz in C-band, depending on the region.
Three Ireland was the only operator to receive a continuous block of 100 MHz spectrum nationally, both in urban and rural areas. Vodafone and eir have different spectrum holdings: Vodafone has 105 MHz in urban areas and 85 MHz in rural areas, eir 85 MHz (urban) and 80 MHz (rural). Imagine — a wireless broadband provider — holds 60 MHz spectrum in rural areas, Dense Air, 60 MHz in urban and 25 MHz in rural. Furthermore, Three uses a dedicated 5G spectrum instead of Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS), which explains its superior performance compared to other operators.
In the U.K., Three also holds an advantageous position regarding spectrum ownership — it has a block of 140MHz frequency across several 5G spectrum bands, including a 100 MHz block of continuous spectrum in the C-band. In addition, the operator has been working on adding 10 Gbps backhaul to its sites everywhere to boost the 5G experience.
5G Availability on the rise
Our research shows that access to low band spectrum in part impacts the operator’s 5G Availability but affordability and availability of 5G-capable smartphones are essential too. Ireland had top 5G Availability in Q1 2023 at 21.6%, increasing by 8.1 ppts year-on-year.
The number of 5G subscriptions has been on the rise in Ireland; ComReg reported a total of 988,164 5G mobile subscriptions in Q4 2022 — a 152% year-on-year increase — accounting for 11.1% of all subscriptions in Ireland. Three Ireland’s 5G network covers 85% of the Irish population. To expand the pool of 5G users, in January 2023, Three Ireland, as the first Irish mobile operator, offered 5G to all customers as standard at no additional fee, initially to new customers. Customers need a 5G-enabled device to access the 5G network and be within 5G network reach. Elaine Carey, Chief Commercial Officer (CCO) for 3 Ireland and 3 UK, said offering free 5G across all its mobile plans would provide customers with a “better-connected life.” Currently, Vodafone and Eir only offer 5G to customers with 5G-enabled plans. Our data shows that during Q1 2023, Three’s 5G Availability increased by 5.5 ppt while the country average increased only by 1.9 ppt, proving that the strategy paid off.
In the U.K., 5G Availability increased by 6.7 ppt, driven by the growing adoption of 5G smartphones and coverage. According to the Ofcom Connected Nations 2022 report, the pool of 5G capable devices increased from around 10% in 2021 to 20% in 2022, while data traffic carried over 5G tripled — from 3% of all traffic in 2021 to over 9% in 2022. In April 2023, as part of the new Wireless Infrastructure Strategy, the government set out its ambitions for all populated areas to be covered by “standalone” 5G by 2030, increasing from 77% of the population already having access to 5G from one provider using 5G NSA.
In Austria, 5G Availability passed the 15% mark in Q1 2023, up from 10% a year prior. Despite coverage obligations related to network deployment set out by the Federal Ministry for Digital and Economic Affairs (BMDW) in November 2019 as part of the operators’ 5G license, the 5G adoption is lackluster compared to other countries. For example, Drei Austria had to provide 5G coverage to at least 15% of the population in all provincial cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants by the end of 2020 and 40% by the end of 2023. Furthermore, Drei wants to increase its 5G coverage to three-quarters of all households and companies by the end of 2023 and provide 222 previously underserved communities with mobile broadband internet by using additional frequencies in the 700 and 1500 MHz bands for 5G. In September 2022, Drei Austria announced the launch of 5G SA, dubbed 5G+, making it available to 1.3 million homes and businesses. The company also offers mobile internet with a residential bandwidth guarantee, which it claims is the world’s first.
Network investment continues
In Ireland, Three worked on an ongoing network transformation program investing over €2 billion, including an €820 million investment in upgrading and expanding the network into Three’s digital transformation.
In March 2023, Drei announced a total investment program for 5G in Austria of €1.2 billion beyond 2025.”Our largest network offensive in the company’s history, which we announced last year, has got underway. We are investing 1.2 billion Euros in the nationwide expansion of our new 5G network beyond 2025,” said Drei CTO Matthias Baldermann during the 2022 results announcement. In Austria, Drei utilized new spectrum to the full extent, leading-edge equipment, and installed powerful massive MIMO antennas on each site — a new range with the new antenna. As a result, improvement in terms of performance and capacity for customers can be measured in improved consumer satisfaction.
Three UK has invested over £2 billion to transform its network and IT infrastructure as part of a five-year program. Over the past five years, Three has undergone an immense transformation — it was the first operator to deploy cloud core. There are 19 data centers across the U.K. — compared to the previous three core data centers. With 19 data centers, there is a good balance between what goes in each and what needs to serve the customer more quickly. The edge data center, collocated with other providers, deals with straight internet access and peering to get traffic from the networks to the source. It also comes with additional efficiency in terms of Capex and Opex — the cost of 19 data centers is the same as the three legacy ones.
From tower owners to tenants
Following the path of a general industry direction, Three has outsourced the management of its network assets. In November 2022, Spanish mobile tower operator – Cellnex Telecom – completed the acquisition of the U.K. telecoms tower assets of Three UK. This was the last one of the multi-country deals signed by CK Hutchinson and Cellnex in November 2020, whereby Cellnex acquired a total of 24,600 towers across the U.K., Italy, Ireland, Austria, Sweden, and Denmark for approximately €10 billion ($10.35 billion).
Not only performance but energy efficiency is also top of mind
In Ookla’s Take on Telco Trends in 2023, we have predicted that the quest for Net Zero becomes more urgent as cost-cutting and optimizing operations are top-of-mind for telcos in 2023 as energy prices and broader inflation remain high. We are already seeing operators look to sustainable solutions, such as wind and solar farmers, to supply sites with green energy instead of commercial electricity, partially to reduce costs. CK Hutchison Group Telecom 2022 Annual Results showcased a wider range of energy efficiency initiatives deployed across its European footprint.
Robert Finnegan, Chief Executive of Three Ireland and Three UK, said the company was satisfied with its 2022 financial performance despite the additional impacts of inflation and soaring energy costs. “As part of our sustainability strategy, we continued to invest in energy-saving initiatives across the network infrastructure in 2022, which helped mitigate against energy inflation.” Furthermore, across its footprint, Three has deployed various strategies such as smart network “sleeping mode” and energy efficiency equipment, the retirement of legacy technology, and the reduction of redundant assets through consolidation and active sharing, and thermal management. Three Ireland implemented “proof of concept” for on-site solar generation on mast sites as solar panels are more energy efficient and greener.
During the Connectivity Insights session at MWC 2023, Iain Milligan, Chief Network Officer of Three UK, shared that the operator is currently undergoing some trials with network vendors to address energy efficiency via a mix of features. From a hardware perspective — they deploy the most recent hardware, which brings efficiency; feature rollout in the radio also brings gains in multiple aspects. Lastly, analytics play an essential role, too, helping to identify peak usage times compared to quieter periods. All of these can bring 60% improvements.
We will continue to monitor 5G performance progress closely using Speedtest Intelligence. If you want to learn more about how Speedtest Intelligence can help you benchmark your 5G performance against competitors, please inquire here.
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5G is coming to Central Asia, begging the question: what is the current performance and availability of mobile networks? In this article, we will examine the state of mobile networks across five countries that comprise the Central Asian region: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Central Asia is a region comprising upper-middle and low-income countries, rich in natural resources and sharing a common history. The countries within the region recognize that they have to enable good connectivity to ensure people and the economy can benefit from digital transformation.
Key takeaways
Need for more market reforms. The International Telecommunication Union ICT Regulatory Tracker puts three of the five countries: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, as regulated public monopolies (G1). Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have more supportive regulatory environments, but none of the countries is fully transparent. According to the ICT, improved regulatory framework and performance correlate to increases in telecom investment, which positively affects coverage, price competitiveness, adoption levels, and GDP per capita.
Kazakhstan led on median download speeds. Kazakhstan topped the ranks in terms of mobile download speed, while Tele 2 Kazakhstan for median download speed across all Central Asia operators in Q4 2022.
Kyrgyzstan performed well on 4G Availability. Thanks to the supportive regulatory environment, Kyrgyzstan punches above its weight in terms of mobile performance and 4G Availability compared to other, richer neighbors.
Banking on digital transformation. Apart from Turkmenistan, Central Asian countries have initiatives to stimulate mobile adoption and drive digital transformation. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, in particular, invest in digital infrastructure to stimulate all facets of the digital economy.
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan shined the brightest for mobile across Central Asia
We used Speedtest Intelligence® data to compare performance across Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan had the fastest median mobile download speed at 22.44 Mbps during Q4 2022, and Kyrgyzstan topped the ranks for median upload speed at 9.78 Mbps.
Kyrgyzstan also came first in terms of 4G at 88.8%, up from 81.9% in Q2 2021. Tajikistan made the most progress with regard to 4G Availability — increasing by 12.8 ppt from 59.5% in Q4 2021 to 72.3% in Q4 2022, followed by Uzbekistan, which increased from 67.1% 4G Availability in Q4 2021 to 75.4% in Q4 2022. Turkmenistan had the lowest 4G Availability at 11.6% in Q4 2022, far behind its peers but up from a year prior (6.5% in Q4 2021).
Across Central Asia, where close to half of the population lives in rural areas, it is imperative to make sure that those communities are not left behind when it comes to fast and reliable internet. Speedtest Global Index™ shows that the “stans” still have a way to go to improve their ranking. Governments across Central Asia need to address the root cause of the poor connectivity, which partially stems from the lack of an open and competitive telecom market.
The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) ICT Regulatory Tracker sheds light on where Central Asia sits when it comes to regulatory environment — it provides a composite score derived from a set of 50 indicators across four pillars such as regulatory mandate, regulatory authority, regulatory regimen, and competitive framework, as follows:
G1: Regulated public monopolies — command and control approach
G2: Basic reform — partial liberalization and privatization across the layers
G3: Enabling investment, innovation, and access — dual focus on stimulating competition in service and content delivery, and consumer protection
G4: Integrated regulation — led by economic and social policy goal
The ITU puts three of the five countries: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, as regulated public monopolies (G1). Kazakhstan (G2) and Kyrgyzstan (G3) have more supportive regulatory environments, but none of the countries is fully transparent.
Central Asia embraces digitalization to level up
The availability and quality of mobile networks are crucial across Central Asia due to the low proliferation of fixed-line broadband and mobile being the only de-facto connectivity option, especially in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Access to mobile broadband enables a range of services, such as mobile banking and remote education, which are key to digital inclusion and supporting economic growth. All Central Asian countries, bar Turkmenistan, have put strategies in place to stimulate telecom infrastructure and the wider ecosystem.
ITU ranks Kazakhstan’s regulatory status as G2 means that basic reform took place, and the market is partially liberalized and privatized. Through the Digital Kazakhstan program, Kazakhstan set an ambitious goal to ensure 100% country coverage with high-quality internet and 95% home broadband adoption by 2025. Furthermore, in 2020, Beeline, Kcell, and Tele2 agreed to deploy a shared network to support the government’s “250+” project, which aims to extend high-speed internet to all villages of more than 250 residents. Each operator will build and operate the network in one area providing equal access to the shared infrastructure to the other parties. The five-year project will deliver 3G/4G service to 600,000 people in nearly 1,000 rural settlements. Also, the operators offer a special social tariff, “Tugan zher,” for less than 900 tenges ($1.88).
The Kyrgyz Republic, known as Kyrgyzstan, has the highest levels of mobile penetration across Central Asian countries — 159.9% with 2.94 SIMs per unique mobile subscriber, according to GSMA Intelligence. Despite being the second poorest country across CA, Kyrgyzstan came first regarding 4G Availability (the proportion of users of 4G-capable devices who spend most of their time on 4G networks). The National Development Strategy of the Kyrgyz Republic 2018-2040 is one initiative that facilitates digital transformation to hasten the country’s economic development. The State Communications Agency (SCA) stated in its annual report for 2021 that a total of 2,049 settlements across the country were covered by 4G LTE mobile networks at the end of 2021, equivalent to 96% of the country’s 2,130 officially registered cities, towns and villages. 2G mobile network technology extended to 2,088 locations (98%), while 3G networks were present in 2,081 (97%). Overall, 42 settlements (1.9%) were outside mobile network coverage, some due to a lack of power transmission lines.
At the end of 2020, Uzbekistan embarked on a “Digital Uzbekistan 2030” strategy to stimulate the country’s digital transformation across various industries. To achieve this, Uzbekistan is expanding its telecommunication infrastructure to improve communication quality and close the urban-rural divide (50% of the population lives in rural areas) by inking several partnerships. VEON, Beeline Uzbekistan’s parent company, announced in May 2022 that it would invest $250 million over the next five years to develop the communications infrastructure and ecosystem of digital services in Uzbekistan to support Digital Uzbekistan 2030.
Andrzej Malinowski, the CEO of Beeline Uzbekistan, acknowledges that “there is a clear understanding that (mobile) is a driver of the economy and the best way to further improve education level within the country. We want to enable remote education and build an education platform as a social project, make it zero-rated and available to all”.
VEON also announced it would advise and provide digitalization services to the Uzbek government during the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). In September 2022, state-backed Uzbektelecom signed eight contracts with Huawei and ZTE worth $506.8 million. The deal, backed by Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Information Technologies and Communications (MITC), to implement a telecommunication network and infrastructure across the western and eastern regions of the country in two phases to deliver expanded population coverage and QoS. Furthermore, Uzbektelecom has also signed a contract with four Japanese companies — NTT, NEC, Toyota Tsusho, and Internet Initiative Japan (IIJ) — to deploy a telecommunications infrastructure development project to provide data center and telecommunication infrastructure to enable “Digital Uzbekistan 2030”.
Tajikistan is the poorest country in Central Asia, with most of the population living in rural areas (72%). Unsurprisingly, the country ranked low on the Speedtest Global Index, taking 132nd place for mobile and 124th for fixed networks. According to the State Communication Service, only one-third of the population (3.3 million) used mobile Internet in Tajikistan in 2021. One of the reasons behind this is the high expense of mobile broadband subscriptions which costs on average 7.5% of monthly GNI per capita, as per data from the ITU, one of the highest in the region. It also has one of the largest (20 percentage points) gender gaps in mobile ownership. Tajikistan outlined its priorities in the National Development Strategy 2030, as it aims to leverage digital technologies to fight poverty, achieve energy independence, boost food security, and create new jobs for the population.
Turkmenistan, known for its autocratic government and large gas reserves, has the least developed telecommunications sector across Central Asia, partially because of the strong government control over most economic activities, including telecommunication which prevents foreign investment. ITU gave the country an overall score of 6.70 in 2022, second worst only to Djibouti. There is only one operator in the country, Altyn Asyr, which operates under the brand name TM Cell after MTS exited the market in 2019. The lack of competition harms telecommunication services’ availability, affordability, and quality. The treatment of MTS doesn’t encourage foreign investment, which the country desperately needs to build telecom infrastructure. In late 2021, Turkmenistan reportedly purchased equipment, software, and technical support from Huawei.
Tele 2 Kazakhstan topped median download speed; Mega Kyrgyzstan uploads
Tele 2 Kazakhstan achieved the fastest median mobile download speed across all of the operators in Central Asia in Q4 2022, of 27.25 Mbps, a slight uptick over Q4 2021 (26.13 Mbps median download speed). The only privately owned company in Kazakhstan, Beeline Kazakhstan, was the second fastest operator in Kazakhstan and third across Central Asia — the operator’s investment into mobile is paying off as it has increased its median download speed from 17.97 Mbps in Q4 2021 to 21.95 Mbps in Q4 2022. The operator reported 7.2 million 4G users in Q3 2022, a 25.5% year-on-year increase, translating into 69% 4G penetration of the total customer base (7 percentage points year over year). Beeline Kazakhstan is already the largest mobile operator in the country, with around 42% market share, and it is also the winner regarding mobile number portability.
Kyrgyz operators performed well on 4G Availability
4G Availability is a function of smartphone availability and affordability and 4G coverage. According to the National Statistics Office, smartphone shipments to Kyrgyzstan reached 968,000 units between January and July 2022, of which the majority (872,000) were from China, with an average price of $69. Affordable smartphone shipments, combined with the operators’ efforts to expand 4G LTE network coverage, resulted in Kyrgyz operators topping the 4G Availability rankings in Central Asia. The top-ranking operator regarding 4G Availability has had an eventful past couple of months. In December 2022, Megacom Kyrgyzstan, run by the state-owned Alfa-Telecom, started its rebranding campaign to MEGA following Megacom ownership transfer to the state-owned Kyrgyzstan State Development Bank. The operator announced that it expanded and upgraded its 2G, 3G, and 4G networks in seven regions and the capital of the Kyrgyz Republic. It plans to continue network coverage expansion across remote areas of Kyrgyzstan.
The second operator on the chart, Sky Mobile, operating under the Beeline Kyrgyzstan brand, announced In September 2022 that it has expanded its LTE network by deploying or upgrading 1,000 base stations. Additionally, between November 2021 and May 2022, Beeline Kyrgyzstan offered smartphones in installments for six or twelve months bundled with its mobile service package.
Tele2 and Kcell, controlled by the same company Kazakhtelecom, differ regarding 4G Availability. Kcell reported that the 4G/5G smartphone share of total subscribers was 72.8% in Q2 2022 (3.6% higher than a year prior), while LTE traffic accounted for 78.7% of all traffic. Kcell is actively working on expanding LTE coverage — it has increased from 65.1% in 2020 to 67.5% as of 1H 2022. At the end of end-2022, around Kazhtelecom’s twin subsidiaries: Kcell and Tele2-Altel, operated 14,000 cellular base stations. On the other hand, Beeline Kazakhstan, part of the VEON group, reported that it installed over 4,000 base stations during 2022, taking its total to more than 25,000 base stations. The operator also stated it provides 97% LTE coverage within each area where it has deployed 4G base stations.
Beeline Uzbekistan outperformed other Uzbek operators on 4G Availability; the operator stated that it covered 79% of the population with an LTE network in 2022, a 16% year-over-year increase. In Q3 2022, the operator reported a 40% year-over-year data revenue increase based on strong mobile data usage (+42.2% YoY). 4G users grew by almost 35% during Q3 2022 to 5.2 million, driven by an expanded network rollout and portfolio of digital products. The absence of big tech such as Spotify means Beeline can drive local content. Beeline Uzbekistan follows its parent company’s strategy of offering digital products and bundles, which helps with churn reduction and increased consumer loyalty — 33% of its customers are multiplayer consumers. My Beeline, its locally developed self-service app, had 2.6 million monthly active users (MAUs) — almost a third more than a year ago. Local entertainment platforms such as Beeline TV and Beeline Music had 1.2 million MAUs. Beeline has set up a wholly owned software house called BeeLab, which has been recently awarded a license from the Uzbekistan Central Bank to provide payment services. Beeline Uzbekistan subscribers can pay for a total of 500 services by using the Beepul mobile application. Mr Malinowski recognized a need to build an ecosystem around mobile payment to bring a third of the Uzbek population, currently unbanked, into the economy to enable a cashless society.
Megafon Tajikistan outran other Tajik operators in Q4 2022; its network investment can partially explain this — it announced that the number of 4G base stations increased by nearly 40% during 2022, while it added around 300 4G base stations until November 2022.
The International Finance Corporation (IFC), part of the World Bank, provided a $30 million loan to Tcell, the largest mobile operator in Tajikistan, to support its network expansion and improve connectivity across the country, especially in remote, less-densely populated areas of the country.
Almaty in Kazakhstan took the top spot in terms of mobile download speed
Given that Kazakhstan had the fastest mobile speed amongst its peers, it is not surprising that Almaty, the largest city in Kazakhstan, the country’s former capital, and financial and cultural center of Central Asia, was the top-ranked city in Q4 2022, with a median download speed of 25.78 Mbps and 11.06 Mbps upload speed. Tele2’s median download speed was 30.10 Mbps, just ahead of Beeline with 29.27 Mbps but double that of Kcell (12.39 Mbps download speed).
Despite Kyrgyzstan having the best 4G Availability across neighboring countries, this is not the case when it comes to capital cities; three cities share the honors here: 4G Availability in the Kazakh cities of Almaty and Astana, and the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, exceeded 84%.
4G for all, or 5G for a few?
Across the countries Beeline operates, its strategy is to primarily deploy 4G networks rather than to focus on 5G. This was particularly visible as Beeline didn’t participate in Kazakhstan’s latest 5G spectrum auction. In December 2022, the consortium of mobile operators Mobile Telecom Services (Tele2 and Altel brands) and Kcell (Kcell and Active brand), both controlled by Kazakhtelecom, won two 100 MHz blocks in the 3.6 – 3.7 GHz and 3.7 – 3.8 GHz spectrum band. In December 2022, the Minister of Digital Development announced that 75% of Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent and 60% of regional centers will be covered by 5G networks by 2027. The state-owned operator, Kazakhtelecom, already outlined its plans concerning the 5G services launch, with the first 486 base stations scheduled to be launched in Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent in 2023, ahead of a wider rollout of over 7,000 5G cell sites across the Kcell and Tele2-Altel networks by the end of 2025.
Operators across the rest of Central Asia, apart from Turkmenistan, followed suit. Mobile operators started to deploy and test 5G networks, although with limited geographic reach.
Surprisingly Tajikistan was one of the first countries in Central Asia to launch 5G. MegaFon Tajikistan was the first in Tajikistan to activate a 5G base station in Dushanbe in February 2020, followed by Tcell in August 2020, and ZET Mobile in 2021. Operators in Kyrgyzstan are piloting 5G as well. In September 2022, MegaCom, in partnership with Huawei and the Ministry of Digital Development, launched a 5G showcase zone in Bishkek. Nur Telecom (O!) opened a second demo zone in October 2022 in the city of Osh, in addition to the one in Bishkek.
Central Asian countries understand the benefits digital transformation brings, and some, such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, have initiatives to stimulate mobile adoption and drive the country’s digital transformation. Others need to take a hard look at the regulatory and competitive landscape to drive telecom market development.
Operators continue to modernize their networks and we are keeping a close eye on how the network deployments are progressing and the network performance end users experience. If you are interested in benchmarking your performance or if you’d like to learn more about internet speeds and performance in other markets around the world visit the Speedtest Global Index.
5G приходит в Центральную Азию, в связи с чем возникает вопрос: какова текущая производительность и доступность мобильных сетей? В этой статье мы рассмотрим состояние мобильных сетей в пяти странах, входящих в регион Центральной Азии: Казахстане, Кыргызстане, Таджикистане, Узбекистане и Туркменистане. Регион Центральной Азии объединяет страны с различным уровнем доходов, включая как высокий, так и низкий, а также обладающие богатыми природными ресурсами и имеющие общую историю. Страны региона признают, что они должны обеспечить хорошую связь, чтобы люди и экономика могли извлечь выгоду из цифровой трансформации.
Основные выводы
Необходимость дополнительных рыночных реформ.ICT Regulatory Tracker Международного союза электросвязи относит три из пяти стран, Таджикистан, Узбекистан и Туркменистан, к регулируемым государственным монополиям (G1). Казахстан и Кыргызстан имеют более благоприятную нормативно-правовую базу, но ни одна из стран не является полностью прозрачной. По данным ICT, улучшенная нормативно-правовая база и эффективность регулирующих органов коррелируют с увеличением инвестиций в телекоммуникации, что положительно влияет на покрытие, ценовую конкурентоспособность, уровень внедрения и ВВП на душу населения.
Казахстан лидирует по средней скорости загрузки. Казахстан возглавил рейтинг по скорости загрузки с мобильных устройств, а Tele 2 Kazakhstan — по средней скорости загрузки среди всех операторов Центральной Азии в четвертом квартале 2022 года.
Кыргызстан показал хорошие результаты по доступности 4G. Благодаря благоприятной нормативно-правовой среде Кыргызстан превосходит своих более богатых соседей с точки зрения скорости и доступности 4G.
Ставка на цифровую трансформацию. Помимо Туркменистана, в странах Центральной Азии есть инициативы по стимулированию внедрения мобильных устройств и цифровой трансформации. Узбекистан и Казахстан, в частности, инвестируют в цифровую инфраструктуру, чтобы стимулировать все аспекты цифровой экономики.
Казахстан и Кыргызстан имеют лучшую мобильную связь в Центральной Азии
Мы воспользовались данными Speedtest Intelligence®, чтобы сравнить скорость в странах Центральной Азии. В четвертом квартале 2022 года у Казахстана была самая высокая средняя скорость загрузки с мобильных устройств — 22,44 Мбит/с, а Кыргызстан возглавил рейтинг по средней скорости передачи — 9,78 Мбит/с.
Кыргызстан также занял первое место по доступности 4G с 88,8 % по сравнению с 81,9 % во втором квартале 2021 года. Таджикистан добился наибольшего прогресса в отношении доступности 4G, показав рост на 12,8 п. п. с 59,5 % в четвертом квартале 2021 года до 72,3 % в четвертом квартале 2022 года. Далее следует Узбекистан, в котором доступность 4G увеличилась с 67,1 % в четвертом квартале 2021 года до 75,4% в четвертом квартале 2022 года. В Туркменистане был самый низкий уровень доступности 4G — 11,6 % в четвертом квартале 2022 года, что значительно уступает показателям соседей, но выше, чем годом ранее (6,5 % в четвертом квартале 2021 года).
В Центральной Азии, где почти половина населения проживает в сельской местности, крайне важно, чтобы населению был доступен быстрый и надежный интернет. СогласноSpeedtest Global Index™, «станам» еще есть куда стремиться, чтобы улучшить свой рейтинг. Правительствам стран Центральной Азии необходимо устранить первопричину плохой связи, которая частично связана с отсутствием открытого и конкурентного рынка телекоммуникаций.
ICT Regulatory Tracker Международного союза электросвязи (ITU) проливает свет на положение Центральной Азии в том, что касается регулирования. Трекер предоставляет сводную оценку, полученную из набора 50 показателей по четырем основным элементам, таким как регулирующий мандат, регулирующий орган, режим регулирования и конкурентная среда, как показано ниже.
G1: регулируемые государственные монополии — командно-управленческий подход
G2: базовая реформа — частичная либерализация и многоуровневая приватизация
G3: обеспечение инвестиций, инноваций и доступа — двойной акцент на стимулирование конкуренции в сфере предоставления услуг и контента, а также на защиту прав потребителей
G4: интегрированное регулирование — направленное на достижение целей экономической и социальной политики
ITU относит три из пяти стран, Таджикистан, Узбекистан и Туркменистан, к регулируемым государственным монополиям (G1). Казахстан (G2) и Кыргызстан (G3) имеют более благоприятную нормативно-правовую базу, но ни одна из стран не является полностью прозрачной.
Центральная Азия проводит цифровую трансформацию, чтобы подняться на новый уровень
Доступность и качество мобильных сетей имеют решающее значение в Центральной Азии из-за низкого распространения стационарной широкополосной связи, а мобильная связь является фактически единственным вариантом выхода в сеть, особенно в Таджикистане, Туркменистане и Кыргызстане. Доступ к мобильной широкополосной связи позволяет предоставлять ряд услуг, таких как мобильный банкинг и дистанционное обучение, которые имеют ключевое значение для охвата цифровыми технологиями и поддержки экономического роста. Все страны Центральной Азии, за исключением Туркменистана, разработали стратегии по развитию телекоммуникационной инфраструктуры и расширению экосистемы.
ITU оценивает регулятивный статус Казахстана как G2, что означает, что основные реформы были проведены, а рынок частично либерализован и приватизирован. В рамках программыЦифровой Казахстан, Казахстан поставил перед собой амбициозную цель: к 2025 году на 100 % обеспечить страну качественным интернетом и на 95 % — домашним широкополосным доступом. Кроме того, в 2020 году компании Beeline, Kcell и Tele2 договорились развернуть общую сеть для поддержки государственного проекта «250+», целью которого является распространение высокоскоростного интернета на все села с населением более 250 жителей. Каждый оператор будет строить и эксплуатировать сеть в своей зоне, предоставляя равный доступ к общей инфраструктуре другим сторонам. Пятилетний проект предоставит услуги 3G/4G 600 000 человек почти в 1000 сельских населенных пунктов. Также операторы предлагают специальный социальный тариф «Туган жер» стоимостью менее 900 тенге (1,88 долл. США).
По данным GSMA Intelligence, Кыргызская Республика, известная как Кыргызстан, имеет самый высокий уровень проникновения мобильной связи среди стран Центральной Азии — 159,9 % с 2,94 SIM-карты на одного мобильного абонента. Несмотря на то, что Кыргызстан является второй беднейшей страной в Центральной Азии, он занял первое место по доступности 4G (по доле пользователей устройств с поддержкой 4G, которые проводят большую часть своего времени в сетях 4G).«Национальная стратегия развития Кыргызской Республики на 2018–2040 годы» является одной из инициатив, способствующих цифровой трансформации для ускорения экономического развития страны. Государственное агентство связи (SCA) в своемгодовом отчете за 2021 год сообщило, что на конец 2021 года мобильными сетями 4G LTE было покрыто 2049 населенных пунктов, что соответствует 96 % из 2130 официально зарегистрированных городов, поселков и сел страны. Технология мобильных сетей 2G распространилась на 2088 населенных пунктов (98 %), а сети 3G присутствовали в 2081 (97 %). Всего 42 населенных пункта (1,9 %) оказались вне зоны действия мобильной связи, в том числе из-за отсутствия линий электропередачи.
В конце 2020 года Узбекистан приступил к реализации стратегии «Цифровой Узбекистан — 2030», направленной на стимулирование цифровой трансформации страны в различных отраслях. Для этого Узбекистан расширяет свою телекоммуникационную инфраструктуру, чтобы улучшить качество связи и сократить разрыв между городом и деревней (50 % населения проживает в сельской местности) путем заключения нескольких партнерств. В мае 2022 года VEON, материнская компания Beeline Uzbekistan, объявила, что в течение следующих пяти лет инвестирует 250 миллионов долларов США в развитие коммуникационной инфраструктуры и экосистемы цифровых услуг в Узбекистане для поддержки стратегии «Цифровой Узбекистан — 2030».
Анджей Малиновский, генеральный директор Beeline Uzbekistan, признает, что «существует четкое понимание того, что (мобильная связь) является движущей силой экономики и лучшим способом помочь в улучшении уровня образования в стране. Мы хотим обеспечить дистанционное обучение и построить образовательную платформу как социальный проект, сделать ее безналоговой и доступной для всех».
В VEON также объявили, что будут консультировать и предоставлять услуги по цифровой трансформации правительству Узбекистана во время вступления страны во Всемирную торговую организацию (ВТО).В сентябре 2022 года поддерживаемая государством компания «Узбектелеком» подписала восемь контрактов с Huawei и ZTE на сумму 506,8 млн долларов США. Сделка, поддержанная Министерством информационных технологий и связи Узбекистана, предусматривает внедрение телекоммуникационной сети и инфраструктуры в западных и восточных регионах страны в два этапа, чтобы обеспечить расширенное покрытие для населения и высокое качество услуг. Кроме того, «Узбектелеком» также подписал контракт с четырьмя японскими компаниями — NTT, NEC, Toyota Tsusho и Internet Initiative Japan (IIJ) — на развертывание проекта развития телекоммуникационной инфраструктуры для предоставления центра обработки данных и телекоммуникационной инфраструктуры и поддержки стратегии «Цифровой Узбекистан — 2030».
Таджикистан — самая бедная страна в Центральной Азии, большая часть населения которой проживает в сельской местности (72 %). Неудивительно, что страна получила низкий рейтинг вSpeedtest Global Index, заняв 132-е место для мобильных и 124-е место для стационарных сетей. По данным Государственной службы связи, в 2021 году в Таджикистане только треть населения (3,3 млн человек) пользовалась мобильным интернетом. Одной из причин этого является высокая стоимость подписки на мобильный широкополосный интернет, которая в среднем составляет 7,5 % от месячного ВНД на душу населения (по данным ITU), что является одним из самых высоких показателей в регионе. В стране также наблюдается один из самых больших (20 процентных пунктов) гендерных разрывов в плане владения мобильными устройствами. Таджикистан обозначил свои приоритеты в Национальной стратегии развития до 2030 года, она направлена на использование цифровых технологий для борьбы с бедностью, достижения энергетической независимости, повышения продовольственной безопасности и создания новых рабочих мест для населения.
Туркменистан, известный своим авторитарным правительством и большими запасами газа, имеет наименее развитый телекоммуникационный сектор в Центральной Азии, отчасти из-за сильного государственного контроля над большей частью экономической деятельности, включая телекоммуникации, что препятствует иностранным инвестициям. Союз ITU дал стране общий балл 6,70 в 2022 году, что является вторым худшим показателем после Джибути. В стране действует только один оператор «Алтын Асыр», который, после того, как компания «МТС» ушла с рынка в 2019 году, работает под торговой маркой TM Cell. Отсутствие конкуренции негативно сказывается на зоне покрытия, доступности и качестве телекоммуникационных услуг. Уход «МТС» не способствует привлечению иностранных инвестиций, в которых страна остро нуждается для создания телекоммуникационной инфраструктуры. Сообщается, что в конце 2021 года Туркменистан приобрел оборудование, программное обеспечение и техническую поддержку у Huawei.
Tele 2 Казахстан лидирует по средней скорости загрузки; Mega Кыргызстан — передачи
Оператор Tele 2 Казахстан показал самую высокую среднюю скорость загрузки мобильного интернета среди всех операторов в Центральной Азии в четвертом квартале 2022 года, которая составила 27,25 Мбит/с, что немного превышает среднюю скорость загрузки за четвертый квартал 2021 года (26,13 Мбит/с). Единственная частная компания в Казахстане, Beeline Казахстан, была вторым самым быстрым оператором в Казахстане и третьим в Центральной Азии — инвестиции оператора в мобильную связь окупаются, поскольку он увеличил среднюю скорость загрузки с 17,97 Мбит/с в четвертом квартале 2021 года до 21,95 Мбит/с в четвертом квартале 2022 года. Оператор сообщил о 7,2 млн пользователей 4G в третьем квартале 2022 года, что на 25,5 % больше, чем в прошлом году, и соответствует 69 % проникновению 4G от общей клиентской базы (7 процентных пунктов в годовом исчислении). Beeline Казахстан уже является крупнейшим оператором мобильной связи в стране с долей рынка около 42 %, а также лидером по переносимости мобильных номеров.
Кыргызские операторы показали хорошие результаты по доступности 4G
Доступность 4G зависит от наличия и доступности смартфонов, а также покрытия 4G. По данным Национального статистического управления, поставки смартфонов в Кыргызстан в период с января по июль 2022 года достигли 968 000 единиц, из которых большая часть (872 000) были из Китая, по средней цене 69 долларов США. Поставки доступных смартфонов в сочетании с усилиями операторов по расширению покрытия сети 4G LTE привели к тому, что кыргызские операторы заняли первое место в рейтинге доступности 4G в Центральной Азии. У оператора, занимающего первое место в отношении доступности 4G, последние пару месяцев были насыщенными событиями. В декабре 2022 года оператор Megacom Кыргызстан, управляемый государственной компанией «Альфа-Телеком», начал ребрендинг в MEGA после передачи права собственности на Megacom государственному банку развития Кыргызстана. Оператор объявил о расширении и модернизации своих сетей 2G, 3G и 4G в семи регионах и столице Кыргызской Республики. Он планирует продолжить расширение покрытия сети в отдаленных районах Кыргызстана.
Второй оператор в таблице, Sky Mobile, работающий под брендом Beeline Кыргызстан, объявил в сентябре 2022 года, что он расширил свою сеть LTE, развернув или модернизировав 1000 базовых станций. Кроме того, в период с ноября 2021 года по май 2022 года Beeline Кыргызстан предлагал смартфоны в рассрочку на шесть или двенадцать месяцев в комплекте с пакетом услуг мобильной связи.
Операторы Tele2 и Kcell, оба контролируемые компанией «Казахтелеком», имеют разные показатели доступности 4G. Kcell сообщает, что доля смартфонов 4G/5G в общем количестве абонентов составила 72,8 % вовтором квартале 2022 г. (на 3,6 % больше, чем годом ранее), в то время как на трафик LTE пришлось 78,7 %. Kcell активно работает над расширением покрытия LTE — оно увеличилось с 65,1 % в 2020 году до 67,5 % по состоянию на 1 полугодие 2022 года. По состоянию на конец 2022 года дочерними компаниями-близнецами «Казтелекома», Kcell и Tele2-Altel, эксплуатировалось 14 000 базовых станций сотовой связи. С другой стороны, оператор Beeline Казахстан, входящий в группу VEON, сообщил, что в течение 2022 года он установил более 4000 базовых станций, в результате чего их общее количество составило более 25 000. Оператор также заявил, что обеспечивает 97 % покрытия LTE в каждой области, где развернуты базовые станции 4G.
Beeline Узбекистан превзошел других узбекских операторов по доступности 4G. Оператор заявил, что в 2022 году он охватил сетью LTE 79 % населения, что на 16 % больше, чем в прошлом году. В третьем квартале 2022 года оператор сообщил об увеличении выручки от передачи данных на 40 % по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года за счет активного использования мобильных данных (+42,2 % в годовом исчислении). Количество пользователей 4G выросло почти на 35 % в течение третьего квартала 2022 года до 5,2 млн благодаря расширению сети и портфеля цифровых продуктов. Отсутствие крупных брендов, таких как Spotify, означает, что Beeline может продвигать локальный контент. Beeline Узбекистан следует стратегии материнской компании по предложению цифровых продуктов и пакетов, что помогает сократить отток клиентов и повысить лояльность потребителей — 33 % его клиентов используют многопользовательские продукты. My Beeline, местное приложение для самообслуживания, насчитывало 2,6 миллиона активных пользователей в месяц (АПМ) — почти на треть больше, чем год назад. Местные развлекательные платформы, такие как Beeline TV и Beeline Music, насчитывали 1,2 млн АПМ. В Beeline создали собственную компанию по разработке программного обеспечения под названием BeeLab, которая недавно получила лицензию Центрального банка Узбекистана на предоставление платежных услуг. Абоненты Beeline в Узбекистане могут оплатить в общей сложности 500 услуг с помощью мобильного приложения Beepul. Г-н Малиновский признал необходимость создания экосистемы вокруг мобильных платежей, чтобы вовлечь в экономику треть населения Узбекистана, которое в настоящее время не имеет доступа к банковским услугам, и сделать общество безналичным.
Megafon Таджикистан опередил других таджикских операторов в 4 квартале 2022 года; это могут частично объяснить его сетевые инвестиции — оператор объявил, что количество базовых станций 4G увеличилось почти на 40 % в течение 2022 года, а к ноябрю 2022 года было добавлено около 300 базовых станций 4G.
Международная финансовая корпорация (IFC), входящая в состав Всемирного банка, предоставила крупнейшему оператору мобильной связи в Таджикистане, компании Tcell,кредит в размере 30 миллионов долларов для расширения сети и улучшения связи по всей стране, особенно в отдаленных, менее густонаселенных районах страны.
Город Алматы в Казахстане занял первое место по скорости мобильной загрузки
интернета среди соседних стран, неудивительно, что Алматы, крупнейший город Казахстана, бывшая столица страны и финансовый и культурный центр Центральной Азии, занял первое место в четвертом квартале 2022 года. Средняя скорость загрузки составила 25,78 Мбит/с, а передачи — 11,06 Мбит/с. Средняя скорость загрузки у Tele2 составила 30,10 Мбит/с, что чуть больше, чем у Beeline с его 29,27 Мбит/с, но вдвое больше, чем у Kcell (скорость загрузки — 12,39 Мбит/с).
Несмотря на то, что Кыргызстан имеет лучшую доступность 4G среди соседних стран, в столицах ситуация противоположная — здесь доступность 4G в казахстанских городах Алматы и Астана, а также столице Кыргызстана Бишкеке превысила 84%.
4G для всех или 5G для избранных?
Во всех странах, где работает Beeline, его стратегия заключается в том, чтобы в первую очередь развертывать сети 4G, а не фокусироваться на 5G. Это также очевидно ввиду того факта, что Beeline не участвовал в последнем казахстанском аукционе частот 5G. В декабре 2022 года консорциум операторов сотовой связи Mobile Telecom Services (бренды Tele2 и Altel) и Kcell (бренды Kcell и Active), оба подконтрольные «Казахтелеком», выиграл две полосы по 100 МГц в диапазоне частот 3,6–3,7 ГГц и 3,7–3,8 ГГц. Вдекабре 2022 года министр цифрового развития объявил, что 75 % Астаны, Алматы и Шымкента и 60 % областных центров будут покрыты сетями 5G к 2027 году. Государственный оператор «Казахтелеком» уже изложил свои планы по запуску услуг 5G: первые 486 базовых станций планируется запустить в Астане, Алматы и Шымкенте в 2023 году, а позже, к концу 2025 года, — еще более 7000 сотовых вышек 5G в сетях Kcell и Tele2-Altel.
Операторы по всей остальной Центральной Азии, кроме Туркменистана, последовали их примеру. Операторы мобильной связи начали развертывать и тестировать сети 5G, хотя и с ограниченным географическим охватом.
Как ни странно, Таджикистан был одной из первых стран Центральной Азии, запустивших 5G. Первым в Таджикистане в феврале 2020 года «МегаФон Таджикистан» активировал базовую станцию 5G в Душанбе, следом в августе 2020 года Tcell и ZET Mobile. Операторы в Кыргызстане также тестируют 5G. В сентябре 2022 года MegaCom в партнерстве с Huawei и Министерством цифрового развития запустили демонстрационную зону 5G в Бишкеке. «НУР Телеком» (О!) открыл вторую демонстрационную зону в октябре 2022 года в городе Ош, в дополнение к бишкекской.
Страны Центральной Азии осознают преимущества, которые приносит цифровая трансформация, а некоторые, такие как Узбекистан и Казахстан, выдвигают инициативы по внедрению мобильных технологий и цифровой трансформации страны. Другим странам необходимо пересмотреть нормативную и конкурентную среду, чтобы стимулировать развитие рынка телекоммуникаций.
Операторы продолжают модернизировать свои сети, и мы внимательно следим за тем, как продвигается их развертывание и как оценивают их производительность конечные пользователи. Если вы хотите сравнить свои показатели или узнать больше о скорости и производительности интернета на других рынках по всему миру,посетите Speedtest Global Index.
Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.
5G has been in place in India for over four months and already it’s having a tremendous impact on the state of mobile in the country compared to last October when we commented on initial 5G speeds just after 5G networks launched.
Key takeaways
India’s mobile speeds increased by 115%. India has climbed 49 places on the Speedtest Global Index™since launching 5G, from 118th in September 2022 to 69th in January 2023. Ookla® data shows improvement in LTE speeds for both Jio and Airtel since the launch of 5G services, as all their investments into network modernization are paying off.
Median 5G download speeds are 25 times faster than 4G. 5G performance has increased across early 5G adopters in most of the telecom circles, Kolkata achieved the fastest median 5G download speeds in January 2023 at above 500 Mbps. Jio experienced a top median 5G download speed of 506.25 Mbps in Kolkata, while Airtel of 268.89 Mbps in Delhi.
5G Availability increased 55-fold. Airtel and Jio have ambitious targets in terms of 5G network rollout. From 5G networks’ inception, 5G Availability across 5G-capable devices has steadily increased, reaching 8.0% for Airtel and 5.1% for Jio.
5G is further impacting the competitive landscape. We can see Speedtest® users migrating away from Vi, which has been further stimulated by the operator’s inability to launch 5G.
5G will benefit Digital India
Speedtest Intelligence® data shows that median download speeds across India increased by 115% since before the 5G launch, from a 13.87 Mbps median download speed in September 2022 to 29.85 Mbps in January 2023. As a result, India’s position on the Speedtest Global Index improved by 49 places from 118th in September 2022 to 69th in January 2023. This puts India ahead of some of the G20 countries, such as Mexico, Russia, and Argentina, and its neighbors: Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. India is also catching up with the likes of Turkey (a 30.98 Mbps median download speed/65th place on the Speedtest Global Index), South Africa (34.71 Mbps/58th place), and Brazil (35.85 Mbps/57th place).
There are over half a billion internet users in India, making it the second-largest online market worldwide, just behind China. India has already made significant progress in terms of mobile broadband growth. One of the key reasons behind the acceleration in adoption was the launch of the Digital India initiative in 2015, which made government services digitally available to citizens. Digital India’s goal is to transform India into a digital society and economy. Since its launch, almost 270 million Indians have been connected to the internet via mobile internet. This was enabled by expanding mobile broadband networks, particularly using 4G technology. Now, 5G is stepping in to play a role in enabling digital transformation across multiple sectors of the Indian economy. GSMA Intelligence forecasts that 5G could contribute $455 billion to GDP by 2040.
Median 5G download speed is 25 times that of 4G
When 5G was first launched in October 2022, there was a wide disparity in the early 5G network performance users were experiencing on 5G-capable devices; median 5G download speeds oscillated between 512.57 Mbps (Gujarat) and 19.23 Mbps (Uttar Pradesh West) as the 5G networks build out started. In fact, in nine telecom circles: Andhra Pradesh, Kolkata, North East, Haryana, Rajasthan, Bihar, Punjab, Kerala, and Uttar Pradesh West, the median 5G download speed was below 100 Mbps because networks were very much at the testing stage. Four months on, in January 2023, 5G median download speeds had greatly increased across all of the telecom circles — exceeding 200 Mbps everywhere except Jammu and Kashmir, with Kolkata clocking speeds over 500 Mbps.
5G investment has also propelled an increase in 4G LTE speeds thanks to the modernization of the underlying infrastructure. When we compare 5G and 4G performance in January 2023:
median 5G download speed is 25 times that of 4G LTE (338.12 Mbps vs. 13.30 Mbps), and
median 5G upload speed is 4.5 times 4G LTE (19.65 Mbps vs 3.55 Mbps)
We see improvements in LTE speeds (both for Airtel & Jio) in multiple cities as they are offloading 4G traffic onto their 5G network, therefore reducing 4G network congestion. This has to be caveated by the fact that these are still early days for 5G in India, and 5G performance will most likely decrease once those networks are commercially available.
Jio and Airtel are expanding their 5G networks
Jio’s $25 bn investment seems to be paying off. In January 2023 Jio achieved median 5G download speeds above 400 Mbps across ten telecom circles. Jio’s True 5G network is based on a 5G Standalone (5G SA), which doesn’t rely on a 4G LTE network. While Jio’s initial 5G speeds fluctuated massively – from low single-digit to speeds well above 800 Mbps, which pointed to the operator recalibrating its networks, Jio’s 5G performance has stabilized over the past four months. In January 2023, Jio’s 5G early adopters experienced speeds ranging from 246.49 Mbps median download speed in Himachal Pradesh to 506.25 Mbps in Kolkata.
Airtel looks to 5G to offload capacity from 4G to 5G. Gopal Vittal, MD & CEO of Bharti Airtel Limited, mentioned during the latest quarterly results call that “between 25% to 35% of traffic is already getting offloaded on 5G from 4G.” Airtel deployed 5G in a Non-Standalone mode (5G NSA) – the operator stated that commercial trials using NSA give a 30% higher coverage than SA. In January 2023, Airtel’s 5G early adopters experienced speeds ranging from a 78.13 Mbps median download speed in Kolkata to 268.89 Mbps in Delhi.
Operators have already committed a significant amount of capex towards 5G. One of the key challenges Indian telcos face is low ARPU levels, which came in below Rs 200 ($2.41) in Q3 FY 2023 results: Airtel led the pack at Rs 193 ($2.33), Jio followed at Rs 178.2 ($2.15), Vi at Rs 135 ($1.63). Recently, Airtel has removed its based Rs 99 ($1.20) plan across 17 circles, with the new base plan priced at Rs 155 ($1.87). The other two operators have not followed the lead yet. While this could lead to churn, it could help solidify ARPU as Airtel plans to use 5G to migrate customers to higher-value postpaid plans.
Median 5G performance allows us to understand the midpoint of user experience on 5G networks, but it doesn’t paint the full picture. Using Speedtest data we can see that operators have achieved maximum download speeds exceeding 1.6 Gbps – close to speeds that operators in the United States achieved using mmWave spectrum.
Spectrum is not the only factor affecting 5G performance
Operators’ spectrum holding affects their speeds; we have recently commented on the relationship between low- and C-band spectrum and 5G performance. A similar holds true in India. Using Speedtest Intelligence data, we can see that Jio’s 5G performance differs depending on the spectrum band it uses. Jio’s 5G network using the C-band (n=78) results in a 462.60 Mbps median download speed. When Jio’s 5G network uses the lower – 700 MHz frequency band (n=28), the so-called coverage band, the median download speed was 75.70 Mbps. This, however, doesn’t necessarily explain the difference in performance between Jio and Airtel, which also uses the C-band spectrum. Airtel deployed 5G utilizing only its C-band spectrum holding in an NSA (Non-Standalone Mode), and it clocks a median 5G download speed of 277.30 Mbps.
There is another factor at play that can explain the difference in performance between the operators – the type of backhaul network they are using. Indian operators heavily rely on terrestrial wireless backhaul solutions. While fiber penetration in backhaul networks is increasing, according to the DoT, only a third of mobile towers are connected with fiber – versus the National Broadband Mission’s goal of 70% being connected by 2024. The reason why this presents a challenge in the face of 5G rollout is that the capacity per tower site has to increase substantially to accommodate 5G traffic requirements, which in turn requires fiberized backhaul. E-band spectrum, which operators received last year, helps but isn’t enough to support a 5G rollout.
There are various challenges related to laying fiber, including right-of-way (RoW) access and availability of stable power that operators have to overcome. Airtel looks to AI to understand where most of its traffic is located and plans its network roll-out strategy accordingly.
5G Availability in India increased 55 times
Speedtest Intelligence data shows that 5G Availability – the proportion of users with 5G-capable devices that use 5G network – had increased 55 times between September 2022, when 5G Availability stood at 0.1%, and January 2023, when it reached 5.5%. Operators already have an existing base of consumers owning 5G-capable devices. During the latest quarterly call, Airtel shared that about 11% of their smartphones are 5G ready. Airtel users with 5G smartphones can access Airtel 5G Plus services at no additional cost using their existing 4G SIM cards. Airtel is busy carrying out a 5G network rollout, planning to go live in about 300 cities by March 2023 and to cover all urban areas by March 2024.
Jio also has ambitious targets for 5G network deployment, it recently stated that it is on track to complete the pan-India 5G rollout by December 2023, having already deployed over 25,000 sites across 700MHz and 3.5 GHz bands.Jio’s customers can connect to 5G at no additional cost upon receiving the 5G Welcome offer, which is extended to users with 5G-enabled smartphones who subscribe to a plan or Rs239 or higher. The existing 4G SIM will also connect to the 5G network. There is a need to do a software upgrade for older models of smartphones to be able to connect to Jio’s 5G SA network.
During the early days of 5G – in October 2022 – we could see 5G device testing in just over a dozen of cities. Only three cities had a 5G Availability exceeding 2% – namely, the capital, New Delhi, Hyderabad, and Siliguri. Fast forward to January 2023, and 5G Availability exceeded 2% across 39 cities where both Jio and Airtel had rolled out their networks. 5G Availability across three cities was above 13%, namely in Cuttack, Chennai, and Noida.
5G will further change the competitive landscape in India
Based on our data, we can infer churn pattern of Speedtest users from January to December 2022, we can see that Vi India has been losing users throughout 2022, following the 5G launch, the disconnections increased significantly. On the other hand, Jio has been adding new users. This has been validated by the latest data released by TRAI, which shows a similar trend: Vodafone Idea had negative 2.5m net additions in December 2022, compared to Reliance Jio (1.7 million net adds) and Bharti Airtel (1.5 million net adds).
We can also gain insights into where consumers move when changing their network providers. Most of Vi’s customers have moved away to Jio (1.88%) and Airtel (1.32%). Jio gained around 1.3% of customers from Airtel & Vi India. In comparison, Airtel has lost 0.53% to Jio but gained 0.63% from Vi over the same period of time.
We will continue to monitor 5G performance in India, see how operators scale networks, and assess the real-world performance as more consumers will get online with 5G devices. If you want to learn more, subscribe to Ookla Research™ to be the first to read our analyses.
Methodology note:
Speedtest® is designed to fully saturate a user’s connection, which uniquely allows us to accurately measure the maximum speeds available. This is especially important for 5G connections, which can be capable of tremendous speeds. Speedtest simultaneously measures download speeds from multiple servers in order to ensure that a connection is being fully utilized.
Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.
The European Union’s Digital Decade target is rather ambitious. It wants gigabit connectivity for everyone and ubiquitous 5G coverage by the end of 2030 to assist with digital transformation. When we reflected on 5G progress last year, we concluded that Europe had fallen behind its international peers. In this article, we will assess 5G progress across Europe.
Europe trails others’ performance. Although more spectrum has been awarded over the past year, European 5G performance trailed the likes of the UAE and South Korea.
5G Availability is on the up. Whilst still behind its international peers, 5G adoption has increased during 2022. This, combined with the greater availability of 5G smartphones and the rollout of 5G networks using low-band spectrum, resulted in higher 5G Availability across most European countries.
A tale of two Europes. In the Nordics and some Eastern European markets (Bulgaria and Cyprus) 5G outperformed the big 5 European economies (U.K., Germany, France, Spain, and Italy). Operators call for more consolidation and regulatory intervention to facilitate 5G investment.
A hotbed for private networks. European governments and regulators are keen supporters of enterprise digitization efforts, and 5G is heralded as a key enabler to assist with that. Over 40% of all private networks worldwide are in Europe, a growing proportion of which are utilizing 5G.
Mid-band is most assigned spectrum across Europe
As per the European Commission’s 2016 5G Action Plan, EU countries are meant to make low-band (700 MHz) spectrum available for use by June 30, 2020, and mid- (3.6 GHz) and high-band/mmWave (26 GHz) spectrum by December 31, 2020. At the EU level, there are the so-called 5G pioneer bands. These are the changes compared to when we last reviewed 5G spectrum assignments across Europe:
Four countries still needed to assign spectrum last year. Now, Poland is the only one without dedicated 5G spectrum.
Over the course of last year, three more countries awarded spectrum across all of the 5G pioneer bands, making a grand total of eight countries.
Four more countries awarded spectrum across both low- and mid-band spectrum, tallying up the count to 17.
Mid-band spectrum is the most popular spectrum band, with 28 countries already awarded mid-band spectrum — an additional five to when we last took stock. The remaining countries, Poland and Netherlands, will finally auction the 3.5 GHz spectrum in the summer of 2023.
26 countries auctioned spectrum in the 700 MHz bands, compared to 21 a year ago.
Eight countries have awarded mmWave spectrum thus far. Spain is the only addition in 2022, raising €36 million.
Legacy networks give way to 4G LTE and 5G
5G pioneer bands are not the only frequencies that operators use to deploy 5G. As operators shut down legacy networks, they can refarm sub-3GHz frequencies for 4G LTE or 5G. European operators tend to support 2G in the short term, phasing out 3G networks instead. MNOs also look to optimize their network operations, and the upkeep of legacy networks comes with additional cost and complexity.
The rate of network shutdowns is increasing. So far, across Europe, 21 operators across 11 countries have retired 3G networks compared to only two 2G network shutdowns. 2G is still needed to support M2M/IoT use cases, e.g. ongoing long-term enterprise contracts with utility providers. In contrast, operators see less traffic carried over 3G networks hence the desire to retire them. For example, Magyar Telekom noted 2.3% and 0.84% of total voice and data traffic on the 3G network. Proximus stated that 2% of its data traffic uses 3G, while Telenet/Base shared that 3G devices account for just 1% of its network. Looking ahead, 43 operators across 26 countries announced their plans to switch off 2G networks, and 37 operators in 21 countries will pull the plug on 3G.
5G adoption lags, 5G performance doesn’t impress either
Most European countries have commercial 5G networks in place. However, 5G adoption across Europe lags behind its global peers. According to GSMA Intelligence, in Q4 2022, 5G uptake in Europe accounted for 7.4 % of total mobile connections, a substantial increase over the Q4 2021 level of 2.5%. Across European countries, 5G adoption is at most 21% (Switzerland), compared to 43.1% in the United States, 42.4% in South Korea, China (36.3%), Australia (30.1%), and Japan (28.5%).
Our recent article identified four broad clusters of 5G performance based on Speedtest Intelligence® data. Most European countries achieved median 5G download speeds under 200 Mbps, placing them within the 5G Improvers category. Bulgaria was the only country that made it into the 5G Leaders category, which includes the likes of the UAE, South Korea, Singapore, and Qatar, with a median 5G download speed of 342.71 Mbps, a slight decrease compared to last year (374.90 Mbps in Q4 2021). Five countries made it into the High Performers cluster, achieving a median 5G download speed exceeding 200 Mbps: Sweden, Cyprus, Finland, Denmark, and Norway. Interestingly enough, the big five European economies (U.K., Germany, France, Spain, and Italy) were outperformed by the Nordics and two Southern Eastern European markets (Bulgaria and Cyprus). The Nordics have always played a leading role in European telecoms, but the 5G performance gap between them and the big five points to challenges in those markets.
Across most of Europe, median 5G speeds have actually decreased. This isn’t surprising, as increased adoption leads to higher network congestion, but other factors are at play. Operators feel the pressure of the economic crisis, higher energy costs, and reduced consumers’ spending power. Europe also suffers from fragmentation, low ARPU levels brought about by intense competition, and Capex levels that are half that of the U.S. and Canada. A report by the European Court of Auditors estimates the deployment cost of 5G across all EU member states at around €400 billion. Operators are yet to see additional revenue coming from 5G that can support that level of investment. The optimal market structure and role of governments in supporting the rollout of 5G remains a heavily debated topic as operators’ M&A activities heat up.
Operators’ performance tells an interesting story as there are vast differences between countries and even within a country. The Nordics operators’ 5G performance tends to rank highly compared to other European countries thanks to having access to dedicated 5G spectrum and supportive regulatory environment. Denmark and Sweden have a greater level of network sharing as two operators share Multi-Operator Core Networks (MOCNs) and spectrum. In some countries, operators have to adhere to conditions stipulated by the 5G license, either in terms of network coverage or the number of 5G sites. For example, in France, each operator had to deploy 3,000 5G sites by the end of 2022. Challenger mobile operators often outperform incumbents — strong results from Three in the chart above are proof of that.
5G Availability shows improvement
Given the growth in 5G adoption, not surprisingly, 5G Availability (the percentage of users on 5G-capable devices that spend most of the time with access to 5G networks) has been on the rise too. 5G Availability is a function of 5G network coverage, and 5G tariff and 5G-capable device adoption. At 56%, the U.S. continues to have the highest level of 5G Availability, having started 5G deployment in the 600 MHz (low band) range and with a large pool of customers owning 5G capable devices. The 600 MHz frequency band has further reach compared to 700 MHz and even the LTE mid-band. Within Europe, 5G Availability exceeds 40% in three countries: Cyprus, Switzerland, and Denmark, but the range is broad across those countries. Cyta Cyprus has reached 67.1% 5G Availability in Q4 2022, thanks to extending 5G coverage to 100% of Cypriots. Swisscom ranks highly too, with 61% Availability in Q4 2022. Its 2022 Annual Report notes that the operator covers 99% of the Swiss population with a basic version of 5G (using Dynamic Spectrum Sharing, which borrows capacity from its LTE spectrum)and 74% with 5G + (delivered using mid-band spectrum).
One critical component driving 5G Availability is the affordability and availability of 5G-capable smartphones. According to Counterpoint Research, in Q4 2022, 5G smartphone sales across Europe totaled 26.8 million, equivalent to 67% of total smartphone sales, compared to 84% in North America and 87% across China, Japan, and South Korea. Europe still needs to catch up to other advanced markets in smartphone adoption. Within Europe, there is also wide variation, with Germany at 90%, Sweden at 88%, the UK at 86%, and Eastern European markets at 49%. Over time, smartphone sales will translate into a more extensive installed base of 5G devices and share of overall subscriptions.
A glimmer of hope for 5G investments
As per the EU Commission’s 5G Action plan, operators should extend 5G networks to all urban areas and major roads and railways by 2025 and populated areas by 2030. For Europe to catch up with its peers and to achieve its digital ambitions, it needs more investment. Operators frequently call for a more supportive policy and regulatory ecosystem to stimulate Capex. During Ookla’s Southeast Europe Regulatory Summit, Professor Konstantinos Masselos, President of Hellenic Telecommunications and Post Commission and BEREC Chair 2023, recognized that Europe is still behind the rest of the world, there is a need to fill the gap for investments, and Europe needs to solve demand issues and cost-effectiveness while not forgetting sustainability.
According to Assembly Research, an issue that came to the fore during 2022 was ‘fair share’ – i.e. the idea that tech companies should contribute to telecoms network costs. Many large telcos believe that deploying Europe’s digital infrastructure should be more evenly distributed among those generating traffic (and costs). However, some smaller operators and access seekers, such as MVNOs, are concerned by the possible implications of fair share, arguing that it could create a competitive distortion that puts them at a disadvantage. In addition, an October 2022 report by BEREC found little evidence that large content and application providers should contribute towards the cost of building telecom networks, considering that this model could risk harming Europe’s internet ecosystem.
Nevertheless, the European Commission is considering potential changes to how networks are funded. Commissioner Thierry Breton is poised to launch the EC’s fair share consultation at MWC23, which will reportedly outline proposals on Big Tech’s contribution towards telecoms network costs. Whether the European telcos’ lobbying campaign will bear fruit, only time will tell. But this will also depend on how well telcos outline what ‘fair share’ should look like. In Assembly’s view, the next step is to develop a practical means of implementing fair share, one which telcos have yet to set out in detail. In response to the EC’s forthcoming consultation, the onus is on operators to present compelling, justifiable policy actions, including how contributions to network costs should be calculated and applied.
European regulators support enterprise digitization efforts
Digitization of different sectors of the economy is key to supporting sustainable development and climate goals. However, enterprise requirements differ. Some prefer to retain control over their networks, isolating them from the public network. Private mobile networks play an important role in broader digital transformation and addressing Industry 4.0 objectives. According to GSA, there were 954 private networks globally, of which almost half were in Europe (405). In terms of the number of private networks, the U.S. ranked first internationally, Germany was second, and the U.K. came fourth, followed by Japan, Finland, France, and Sweden. All of these countries embarked on digitization strategies to strengthen their position as manufacturing hubs, and it is no coincidence that these are also the markets where enterprises can purchase dedicated spectrum.
Historically, Wi-Fi has been the connectivity choice for private networks. However, mobile technologies such as 4G LTE and 5G are better suited to Operational Technologies’ network requirements of high volume, high reliability, mobility, and always-on operations. In Europe, almost half of the private networks run on 4G LTE (44%), 21% use a mix of 4G and 5G, with 5G accounting for close to 30% of deployments. As we have noted before, the introduction of industrial chipsets, based on Release 16, scheduled to come to market in 2023, will stimulate the private 5G networks market too.
Furthermore, regulators are creating an encouraging environment for enterprises to deploy their own networks to support their digital transformation targets. A dedicated spectrum for private mobile networks has already been allocated to industry players in France, the U.S., Germany, Japan, and the U.K., among others. Recently, Norwegian regulator Nkom opened up a 3.8 – 4.2 GHz band for interested parties to apply for a license to offer private 5G networks. Germany spearheads the Industry 4.0 movement, with some of the country’s biggest industrial players awarded their own 5G spectrum and experimenting with private 5G networks to address their particular needs. Other countries that look to support their national manufacturers standing in the global marketplace look to follow, as we have discussed the case for private networks in India.
Ookla will be at MWC Barcelona 2023 — visit us at our Stand 2i28 in Hall 2 to talk with us about telco trends and to learn about Ekahau’s private 5G offering. If you are interested in what are the new and exciting use cases as we enter the 5G Advance era, join us at the 5G Futures Summit. In the meantime, please contact us if you’re interested in discovering more about Ookla Speedtest Intelligence and its wealth of fixed and mobile consumer-initiated data and insights.
Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.
Based on Speedtest Intelligence® data, we can see a significant variance between countries in median 5G speed, with four broad clusters of 5G performance emerging: 5G Leaders, High Performers, Improvers, and 5G Outliers.
5G performance depends heavily on the operator’s 5G spectrum holding.
The larger the allocation of the C-band spectrum, the faster the 5G download speed, with the contiguous spectrum enhancing performance further.
Operators with access to 100 MHz of contiguous spectrum, e.g., in the U.A.E. and South Korea, led the 5G global ranking in Q4 2022 with a median download speed of 516.15 Mbps and 511.70 Mbps, respectively.
Access to low-band spectrum is just one factor that impacts 5G Availability.
Four tiers of 5G performance
Looking at market-level Speedtest Intelligence data, we can see significant variance in median 5G download speeds between the 52 countries we analyzed. We identified four broad clusters of 5G performance as measured by median 5G download speed.
5G Leaders: > 300 Mbps
These markets are the 5G pioneers, being among the first to launch 5G services, and are continually pushing the boundaries of 5G performance with median download speeds typically greater than 300 Mbps. High-performant 5G markets have allocated substantial amounts of spectrum for 5G use, particularly with wide allocations in the coveted C-band, and have assigned and, in some cases, begun limited use of mmWave spectrum. In some cases, we see a trade-off between 5G performance and 5G Availability (the proportion of time users with 5G capable devices spend connected to 5G networks).
5G High Performers: 200 – 300 Mbps
These markets share many of the characteristics of 5G leaders, having made an adequate spectrum allocation for 5G use and fostered competition between operators, which has helped spur network investment. However, they lag behind 5G Leaders based on their level of network densification. They typically use Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS), which allows operators to share spectrum between network generations, but it can weigh on performance. Median 5G download performance in these markets typically ranges from 200 Mbps to 300 Mbps. We don’t generally see as much of a trade-off between performance and 5G Availability in these markets.
5G Improvers: < 200 Mbps
These markets typically have limited C-band availability or a regulatory environment promoting strong price competition, with operator investment constrained. As a result, median 5G download speeds are between 100- 200 Mbps in these markets. In some cases — for example, in the U.S. and U.K., we see 5G spectrum allocations (based on spectrum currently in use) giving a significant advantage to one player in the market, which has then sought to capitalize on this through aggressive 5G network deployment. Furthermore, with the exception of the U.S., which had a 5G Availability of 56.0% in Q4 2022, 5G Improvers all have 5G Availability in the low double digits, ranging from 13.5% in Japan to 19.2% in Germany.
5G Outliers
Only in a few markets did 5G performance drop below 100 Mbps. Polish performance can be explained by the lack of a dedicated 5G spectrum; Polkomtel trading under the Plus brand, utilizing 50 MHz of spectrum in the 2.6 GHz band, and all other operators deploying 5G using DSS in the 2.1 GHz spectrum band. Spain, on the other hand, has assigned spectrum across all three bands, with C-band blocks ranging from 80MHz (MasMovil) to 110 MHz (Orange), and most recently, awarded mmWave too. However, operators focus on meeting coverage obligations that rely heavily on the 700 MHz band. For example, Movistar’s 5G network reached a total of 1,719 municipalities at the end of 2022, equivalent to 83% of the population.
Fast 5G and good 5G Availability don’t always go hand in hand
Using Speedtest Intelligence data, we examined a relationship between the country’s 5G median download speed and 5G Availability. And for the most part, there isn’t one. Fast networks don’t immediately come with high 5G Availability. For example, the U.A.E. and South Korea have topped our ranking in terms of the fastest median download speed over 5G at 549.70 Mbps and 496.63 Mbps, respectively, during Q4 2022. Yet, when it comes to 5G Availability, the U.S. came first in the ranking at 56.0% in Q4 2022, South Korea’s 5G Availability stood at 35.1%, while the U.A.E recorded a 5G Availability of 7.7% in Q4 2022.
All eyes on spectrum
The key to understanding 5G is understanding operators’ 5G spectrum holding. There are two key considerations to keep in mind when discussing the spectrum for 5G: speed performance and geographical coverage. Regulators assign 5G spectrum across three spectrum ranges: low, mid (lower mid-band and upper/C-band), and high (mmWave).
Low-band (sub-1GHz) spectrum can travel farther, cover a greater geographical region, and provide deeper penetration within buildings, given its good propagation characteristics. But, the low band spectrum cannot deliver “true” 5G speeds, peaking at 100 Mbps median download speed. Another challenge is that these frequency bands are in high demand and in low supply, and in some countries, still used for analog television.
Mid-band spectrum (1-6 GHz spectrum) is the so-called “sweet spot” for 5G, especially the upper mid-band (C-band), which offers the best of both worlds in terms of coverage and capacity.
Existing networks such as 2G, 3G, and 4G already use the lower mid-band. This spectrum band has been the 4G data traffic capacity layer, often used in Frequency Division Duplex (FDD) mode. FDD is a technique that uses separatefrequency bands at the transmitter and receiver sides. For example, the U.S. and China used the 2.6 GHz spectrum band in Time Division Duplex (TDD) mode to drive their 5G deployment. Most counties will use TDD for 5G network rollout. This means that the 5G base station and end-user device use the same channel to transmit simultaneously, potentially creating interference issues while allowing more flexibility. Furthermore, this spectrum band will grow in importance as legacy networks are retired and spectrum refarmed.
The upper mid-band, especially 3.3 GHz to 3.8 GHz (otherwise known as C-band), offers a good combination of propagation and capacity. 3GPP standards currently support a 100 MHz wide channel and a maximum bandwidth of 400 MHz in carrier aggregation mode.
The high band, also called the millimeter wave (mmWave), spectrum can deliver super-fast speeds (thinking gigabits) but has limited range. Recently we published an article looking at the mmWave performance and recent developments.
Using Speedtest Intelligence background data, we can gain insights into which spectrum bands operators use for 5G.
High band (mmWave) accounted for less than 1% of the scans in four countries: Japan, U.S., Qatar, and Australia.
Most countries used the mid-band spectrum.
C-band spectrum is used by all countries that have allocated it (21 out of 23 countries), with a notable exception of the Netherlands and Poland, which will finally auction the 3.5 GHz spectrum, set to take place in the summer of 2023.
All countries we have analyzed, bar South Korea, use lower mid-band partially due to operators switching off their legacy networks (2G/3G) and refarming their existing spectrum holdings to support 5G networks rollout.
Low band was used by 78% of analyzed countries (18 out of 23) across our sample.
Addressing spectral challenges via DSS and CA comes at a cost
The ITU minimum technical requirements to meet 5G performance requirements identify at least 100 MHz channel per operator and up to 1 GHz per operator in mmWave bands. This, however, is only sometimes the case. We can see imbalances in terms of operators’ performance within a country, which can be partially explained by having larger spectral resources. For example, Three UK benefited from having the largest, dedicated 5G spectrum — 140 MHz of frequency across several 5G spectrum bands, including a 100 MHz block of continuous spectrum in the 3.3-3.8 GHz band, which positions it well in terms of median download speeds compared to other U.K. operators.
In the absence of a dedicated 5G spectrum or to supplement the existing spectrum, operators can use two technologies to aid their 5G deployment: Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS) and Carrier Aggregation (CA). DSS enables operators to allocate spectrum flexibly across low-, mid-, and high-bands and switch between LTE and 5G New Radio depending on network demand. However, there is a downside to that in terms of 5G performance. For example, in Poland, apart from Plus, all other operators deployed 5G using DSS in the 2.1 GHz spectrum band, which can partially explain why they have lower speeds.
Conversely, CA enables operators to use two or more bands together, integrating them as one big block to deploy 5G. This allows for the aggregation of non-contiguous spectrum blocks, but it impacts performance by introducing latency and signaling overhead.
Access to low-band spectrum has a positive impact on 5G Availability, but it is not the only factor at play
Ookla® data indicates that 5G coverage, which is often enabled by having access to a dedicated low-band spectrum (600 – 900 MHz), is just one part of the puzzle when it comes to 5G Availability. Low-band (700 MHz) spectrum, initially used for LTE, is now allocated to 5G because it allows extended coverage. According to the GSA, the 700 MHz spectrum band is particularly precious. GSA’s data shows that spectrum at 700 MHz has generated an average of $0.309/MHz/pop in assignments and auctions since 2015, significantly above the average price for C-band. For example, India’s highly anticipated 5G spectrum auction garnered $0.380MH/pop for 700 MHz compared to $0.031/MHz/pop for C-band.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and the U.A.E. don’t have any 5G devices using low-band spectrum simply because there has been no spectrum assigned in this band to 5G services. During the initial 5G auction in 2016, South Korea’s 700 MHz spectrum remained unsold.
Other essential aspects driving 5G Availability are the affordability and availability of 5G-capable smartphones, 5G tariffs, and end-user demand. Case in point, despite the lack of low-band spectrum, South Korea reached a 5G Availability of 35.1% in Q4 2022, driven by customer adoption and 5G network densification. According to the Ministry of Science and ICT, in November 2022, there were 27.5 million 5G subscriptions in South Korea, equivalent to 36% of all mobile subscriptions. According to its Communication Agency, there are 215,000 5G base stations, which translates into 319 people per 5G base station, nearly seven times more than the EU and 13 times more than the U.S.
A country’s geography impacts 5G coverage too. For example, in addition to having access to low band spectrum, the Netherlands benefits from being flatter and more densely populated, resulting in a greater ability to expand 5G coverage.
Another factor at play is the spectrum license conditions that stipulate coverage requirements, for instance, as part of the 700MHz licenses in the Netherlands, there is a minimum speed of 8 Mbps in 98% of the cases in each municipality of the country in 2022.
While the relationship between low-band spectrum and 5G Availability is not a direct one, we wanted to investigate whether there is a link between the median 5G download speed and the C-band spectrum.
Larger the share of the C-Band spectrum, the faster the 5G download speed
Our analysis found that access to C-band spectrum typically translates into a faster median 5G download speed. Unsurprisingly, operators are keen to deploy 5G services using C-band spectrum. According to GSA, since the end of 2015, 54 countries have auctioned, assigned, or renewed licenses for C-band spectrum.
All eyes on 5G Leaders
Countries where operators solely rely on the mid-band spectrum for 5G, and where 5G services have been available for more than 13 quarters have achieved over 300 Mbps median download speed in Q4 2022. Bulgaria is an exception, having launched services just over two years ago. We can also conclude that operators’ overall spectrum holding and whether they have access to a contiguous spectrum matters, too. Contiguous spectrum helps achieve faster speeds, lower latency, and improved spectral efficiency.
U.A.E.: Emirati operators – Etisalat and Du – use two carrier spectrum in the 3.5 GHz and 2.5 GHz frequency range, each carrier at 100 MHz, to establish a 5G network. This results in speeds exceeding 500 Mbps. The U.A.E. had a median 5G download speed of 511.70 Mbps in Q4 2022.
South Korea: KT and SKT bought a 100 MHz channel each in 2018. In July 2022, LG+ secured an additional 20 MHz C-band spectrum, bringing its total spectrum holding to 100 MHz. Alongside the 5G spectrum auction, the government outlined the rollout milestones for the operators’ 3.5 GHz rollout: 22,500 base stations by the end of 2021, 45,000 by the end of 2023, and 150,000 at completion. Thanks to that, South Korea has the most base stations per population. South Korea is one of the early adopters of 5G, having commercialized 5G in 2019 and over a third of all mobile subscriptions on 5G. One of the reasons behind South Korea’s fast-paced 5G adoption is the support from the government, which adopted the 2021 action plan for the “Digital New Deal” to support 5G development and a wider digital transformation.
Qatar: Qatar, clocking a median 5G download speed of 462.15 Mbps and 5G Availability of 50.7% in Q4 2022, delivers the best of the worlds — good speeds and 5G Availability. In November 2022, Qatar’s Communications Regulatory Authority (CRA) amended the mobile licenses held by Vodafone Qatar and Ooredoo Qatar in early 2019, authorizing each operator to utilize 100 MHz of C-band spectrum and committing them to roll out commercial 5G networks before the end of 2020 in all densely populated areas. Operators’ heavy investment into their network to achieve near-universal service coverage and incentives to migrate users to 5G networks has paid off. We have closely monitored 5G performance during the recent World Cup. Not only did Qatari 5G networks manage to withstand the additional network load that World Cap brought, but it has also improved in performance, with the median 5G download performance hitting 472.13 Mbps in November 2022.
Saudi Arabia: Operators in the KSA have access to more than 1000 MHz of licensed spectrum for IMT use in the low- and mid-band ranges. Saudi regulator – CST (Communication, Space and Technology Commission) – championed data-driven, evidence-based policy decisions to enable a 5G rollout by conducting analysis of spectrum usage, the performance of various bands, and existing network infrastructure to see where investments had been made within certain bands (e.g., extra capacity in specific bands in urban areas and coverage of rural areas using adequate bands). If you would like to find out more, read this case study.
Bulgaria: In April 2021, Vivacom Bulgaria won 100 MHz in the 3.7-3.8 GHz band for BGN4.6 million (€2.35 million). Vivacom utilizes DSS, combining frequencies in 1.8, 2.1, and 3.6 GHz bands for 5G. A1 Bulgaria, on the other hand, uses a dedicated 100 MHz band.
We will continue to monitor 5G performance across the world and investigate the factors that impact 5G performance. If you want to learn more about 5G performance, head to Ookla ResearchTM and subscribe to our newsletter to stay up to date with our latest analyses.
Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.
In this article, we will look at the real-life performance of mmWave in the United States, reflect on its progress so far across the globe, and discuss what the future holds.
Key takeaways
mmWave received additional spectrum as part of Release 17, in addition to the spectrum already allocated by Rel-15 and WRC-19. 5G connectivity using mmWave substantially improves 5G performance (increasing theoretical speeds to up to 5 Gbps). At the same time, it comes with a challenge because of its limited range, which can be easily blocked or obscured, necessitating a high degree of network densification, which comes with additional Capex.
After initial enthusiasm, operators’ appetite for the mmWave band spectrum has been lackluster, with only two auctions taking place in 2022. However, we see a renewed interest, which could lead to more spectrum allocations and network launches.
Due to the limited rollout of mmWave 5G networks, the device ecosystem has lagged behind other 5G spectrum bands. While support for mmWave spectrum bands across smartphones is skewed heavily towards the U.S., an increase in spectrum launches and networks combined with a declining ASP should lead to a growing adoption worldwide.
Ookla® Q4 2022 data from the U.S. shows mmWave is achieving mind blowing speeds — almost 1.6 Gbps median 5G download speed — 26 times faster than the median 5G speed on low-band, almost seven times faster than the C-band, and four times than mid-band.
RootMetrics® tested mmWave performance simulating congested network environments and concluded that even in such conditions, mmWave spectrum could achieve four times faster throughput than mid- and low-band spectrum.
mmWave spectrum allocation and commercialization
Oftentimes, consumers complain about 5G speeds, sold on the promise of ultra-fast mobile networks. Such speeds can only be delivered utilizing the mmWave spectrum band. Up until and including 4G LTE, operators have been deploying networks in the sub-6 GHz spectrum. It was only with Release 15 that the telecom standards body 3GPP extended the spectrum ranges available for mobile networks. Frequency bands for 5G New Radio (NR) are separated into two frequency ranges:
Frequency Range 1 (FR1) refers to sub-6 GHz frequency bands, traditionally used by previous network generations, which have been further extended to cover potential new spectrum offerings from 410 MHz to 7125 MHz.
Frequency Range 2 (FR2) refers to frequencies above 24 GHz.
Furthermore, in November 2019, delegates of the World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-19) identified additional radio frequency bands for IMT-2020 (the name ITU uses for 5G standards). These frequency bands are 24.25-27.5 GHz, 37-43.5 GHz, 45.5-47 GHz, 47.2-48.2, and 66-71 GHz. 3GPP’s recently completed Release 17 has further expanded the mmWave spectrum frequency range from 24.25-52.6 GHz up to 71 GHz, including support for the global 60 GHz unlicensed band.
So far, mmWave spectrum allocation has been lackluster across Europe, following initial enthusiasm in the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. According to Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA), 26 countries have licensed mmWave worldwide. In 2022, only two auctions took place in India and Spain in the 26 GHz frequency band. The Indian auction itself was a subject of intense debate and lobbying against its allocation in the 28 GHz band by the satellite providers. The regulator auctioned the 26 GHz band to minimize overlaps and interference issues.
However, the momentum for mmWave spectrum allocations is growing, especially in Europe. While 14 countries in Europe have licensed mmWave so far, more are planning to do so e.g., Hungary, Austria, and the United Kingdom, which should lead to more deployments and create economies of scale that the mmWave device ecosystem currently lacks.
Beyond consumers, mmWave can address the needs of enterprise applications that require higher bandwidth and lower latency, such as factory robots or AGVs. For example, Italian manufacturer Exor International partnered with Intel, TIM, and JMA Wireless to build an end-to-end smart factory in Verona to showcase the benefits that Industry 4.0 brings to manufacturing utilizing sub-6 GHz and 26 GHz spectrum. It is worth noting that several regulators have created an encouraging environment for enterprises to deploy their own dedicated networks by allocating spectrum for vertical use across mid- and high-frequency bands. So far, ten countries have set aside mmWave spectrum for enterprises, including Australia, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Japan, Hong Kong, Finland, Sweden, South Korea, and the U.K. Japanese Fujitsu deployed a private 5G network combining 4.7 GHz SA and 28 GHz.
The growing pains of the mmWave device ecosystem
The South Korean example offers a cautionary tale regarding 5G mmWave readiness.
In 2018, three operators — SK, KT, and LG U+ — spent 620 billion Won ($435 million) on a five-year license for the 28 GHz spectrum. As part of the license conditions, operators had to deploy 15,000 base stations by the end of 2021. Following an audit by the Ministry of Science and IT (MSIT), KT and LGU+ had their licenses revoked, and SK Telecom was reduced by six months. One key challenge operators pointed to was the need for a mature mmWave devices ecosystem in the market.
Looking at the latest GSA data, this is indeed the case. Across the commercially available 5G devices that GSA has identified spectrum support information, most devices (85.7%) support the sub-6GHz band and only 8.9% mmWave spectrum.
However, mmWave device availability differs depending on the geography with smartphone availability heavily skewed to the U.S. For instance, all iPhone 12-14 models in the U.S. support both mmWave and sub–6 GHz 5G connectivity; this was not the case in South Korea. Across Android-based smartphones, the story is similar. The Pixel 6 Pro includes mmWave 5G support only in the U.S., Australia, and Japan. There is also a price difference across devices that offer support for mmWave. For example, Google Pixel 6 is available in two versions in the U.S. — an unlocked version with sub-6 GHz 5G for $599 and another with mmWave 5G for $699. The latter is offered via operators such as Verizon and AT&T. The price difference is likely due to the mmWave requirement for specialized radio hardware and antennas. Yet, on average, the price delta between sub-6 GHz and mmWave smartphones is narrowing down to $10- $20, Counterpoint Research shows.
Furthermore, Counterpoint sees consumer awareness and adoption growing in the U.S. According to its U.S. smartphone users survey, 60% of users checked before purchasing whether a 5G Smartphone has 5G mmWave capability, while 43% of users in the future plan to subscribe to 5G mmWave services and smartphones. Beyond the U.S., Counterpoint sees one billion cumulative 5G mmWave smartphone shipments between 2019 and 2026, with mmWave smartphone penetration reaching 26% by 2026, compared to 13% in 2022.
mmWave supports FWA
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is often considered one of the most successful 5G use cases as we recently pointed out. Some operators leverage mmWave to offer FWA services, for example, in April 2022, US Cellular launched 5G Home Internet using mmWave spectrum (28 GHz and 39 GHz) in partnership with Qualcomm and Inseego across ten cities. In Italy, Fastweb collaborated with Qualcomm to commercialize 5G SA mmWave services in March 2022, following a partnership to deliver 5G FWA to 400 cities. Vendors are vying to address this opportunity too. Recently, Mavenir launched an FWA solution that supports massive MIMO and 5G mmWave for 4G, 5G NSA, and 5G SA deployments. This FWA platform has been deployed by several customers, such as 360 Communications, RINA Wireless, Triangle Communications in the U.S., and Quickline in the U.K.
mmWave delivers on the promise of gigabit speeds
The U.S. is a global leader in using mmWave spectrum, with AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon using mmWave to offer mobile service, while US Cellular deploys it for FWA. Speedtest Intelligence® data shows that 5G connectivity using mmWave can reach staggering speeds of up to 1.6 Gbps. Comparing 5G performance across spectrum bands across mobile operators in the U.S. used for 5G services — low-, mid-, C-band, and high-band (mmWave) — it is clear that mmWave delivers superior performance. Our data shows that users on 5G mmWave achieved speeds that are 4.29 times faster than mid-band, 6.86 times faster than C-band, and a staggering 26.1 times faster than a low band.
Due to its high throughput, mmWave is particularly useful for streaming and gaming. For example, at CES 2023, Razer unveiled its new Razer Edge, the first Android handheld gaming tablet on the market. The device can play games locally on the device or stream them remotely via 5G. The Razer Edge 5G became available from Verizon on January 26.
Mmwave also offers the advantage of lower latency — anything over 20 ms will give gamers a headache, according to Qualcomm.
mmWave helps with network congestion too
Speaking at the Citi 2023 Communications, Media & Entertainment conference, Kyle Malady — Verizon’s Executive VP, President of Global Networks & Technology, noted that the operator has deployed over 40,000 mmWave nodes, which support its 5G services in dense, urban environments. He also stated, “And now that millimeter wave technology turns into a tool for RF engineers to use in hotspots that they have and C-Band.”
A RootMetrics study supports this, based on several tests conducted in December 2021 to simulate the performance of the 5G spectrum in a congested environment. While, unsurprisingly, the results showed speeds in congested environments were slower on all bands than when congestion wasn’t present, there was a difference when it came to bands in use: mmWave 5G delivered a median download speed of 231.40 Mbps, which was over four times faster than the speeds recorded on either mid-band or low-band 5G, both of which were below 50 Mbps (44.80 Mbps on mid-band and 49.50 Mbps on low-band). To put mmWave’s capacity boost in a different perspective, its speed of 231.40 Mbps with congestion was nearly as fast as the 256.80 Mbps recorded on mid-band 5G without congestion. RootMetrics’ study showed that mmWave provides speeds 4-5 times faster than those of mid- and low-band in congested circumstances, delivering on its promise of providing greater capacity and faster speeds under heavy network load.
Millimeter wave also lends additional capacity in dense areas such as stadiums. Poor performance during events such as concerts stems from the networks needing to deal with extra demand and becoming congested. Constraints on the spectrum allocated to 5G today can impact performance more in places like stadiums than in other areas because many users are concentrated in a small space and share the same limited spectrum. To illustrate how mmWave enables better network performance, we can look to Ookla Wind® walk testing data, which can show the benefits of mmWave in terms of 5G bandwidth. Since each carrier is 100 MHz wide, a test showed that a stadium used four carriers aggregated 80% of the time, which resulted in 400 MHz of 5G bandwidth. In turn, this helped to achieve higher 5G capacity and lower latency.
Another benefit of mmWave that the Wind test showed is that with the mmWave 5G NSA network, most of the user data traffic is carried by mmWave spectrum only (contrary to other 5G bands in NSA). This reduces the load on the LTE network. This, in turn, allows legacy users with non-5G capable devices to use an LTE network that is less congested because it doesn’t have to support 5G devices as well.
We will examine the relationship between spectrum and 5G performance in future articles. Subscribe to Ookla Research™to stay up to date on our analyses.
Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.
2023 is shaping up to be a challenging year. The ongoing war, energy crisis, rising interest rates, and rampant inflation have created a perfect storm for the telco industry. That said, there are plenty of exciting developments and changes on the horizon. As we approach 2023, we took stock of what happened during 2022 to predict what might be in store for next year.
5G roll outs continue but speed gives way to QoE
According to theOokla® 5G Map™, there were 127,509 5G deployments in 128 countries as of November 30, 2022, compared to 85,602 in 112 countries the year prior. 5G download speeds stabilized as more consumers adopted 5G, with a median global 5G download speed of 168.27 Mbps in Q3 2022 compared to 166.13 Mbps in Q3 2021. However,some operators believe they may have over-invested in their early emphasis on speed; they now need to monetize their investments through differentiation. One of our clients has famously said: “We are aiming for 1st world speeds and using 3rd world ARPU.” Indeed, in 2023 we will see a big focus on the Quality of Experience (QoE) and initiatives to increase ARPU (average revenue per user) and consumer stickiness by adding entertainment services such as television and music streaming or cloud gaming platforms.
FWA will continue to be a poster child for 5G
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) solutions received renewed interest in 2022 as a key use case for 5G networks and as a way to connect rural and underserved areas. In fact, one-third of service providers are offering 5G FWA, according to Ericsson Mobility Report. Fixed Wireless Service solutions have been a success story in the U.S., where T-Mobile has added 1.6 million new subscribers so far this year. T-Mobile now has 2.1 million total FWA customers, with Verizon totaling 620,000 consumer FWA clients and 440,000 business customers. Moreover, emerging markets such as Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, and the Philippines are seeing an uptick in FWA adoption, and there is a growing interest in India too. Jio announced that it will launch Jio AirFibre, a plug-and-play device connected to Jio’s 5G network that will act as a hotspot. While the exact launch date is still unknown, the operator revealed that it targets 100 million households with its 5G FWA offering. With the demand for fast networks growing, FWA offers an excellent opportunity to cover areas that are too costly to lay fiber and is an alternative to fixed networks. We expect further adoption of FWA on the back of CPE devices getting cheaper, as well as more schemes aimed at connecting the unconnected.
Satellite coming to your home and phone
Globally, satellite already plays an important role in providing network backhaul for 2G, 3G, and 4G technologies in rural and remote areas while also connecting a range of enterprise verticals such as logistics. Thanks to the emergence of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite technology can provide access to areas outside 5G coverage. As our recent analysis shows, LEO satellites benefit from lower latency than Medium Earth Orbit (MEO). Therefore, they will be well-suited to offer backhaul and provide direct connectivity. As the 5G standard is adopted, new markets will open up for satellite operators, including IoT, private 5G, and cellular backhaul for densification to enable more cell sites and edge devices. At the same time, start-ups such as Lynk were the first to demonstrate the power of the direct-to-satellite communication market. The recent Starlink/T-Mobile and Globalstar/Apple partnerships point to this market seeing further growth. We will see more players entering the market in 2023 as providers attempt to bring connectivity to all.
The quest for Net Zero becomes more urgent
Focus on energy efficiency isn’t new; we have already seen this as a major trend for 2022. Across the broader tech industry, vendors look at the option of dialing down performance to help save energy costs – Microsoft’s survey of X-Box users asks how they feel about features that would reduce frame rates and resolution, thus reducing power consumption and saving money. Unsurprisingly, cost-cutting and optimizing operations are top-of-mind for telcos in 2023 as energy prices and broader inflation remains high. We are already seeing operators look to sustainable solutions, such as wind and solar farmers, to supply sites with green energy instead of commercial electricity, partially to reduce costs. Network planning and optimization teams also play a critical role. Using the right site locations, configuration, and optimum coverage/quality service for consumers reduces interference, resulting in less waste of power resources and fewer emissions. Some other ways telcos will reduce energy usage will be through hybrid power implementations instead of relying on petrol/diesel for off-grid sites. They will also implement the latest software features that include smart sleep mode at times of no/low traffic demand. Energy efficiency will be a key focus area in 2023, with vendors lending a hand to telcos to help them reduce energy consumption.
Convergence helps to capture shrinking consumers’ wallets
Raising interest rates, inflation, and the contraction of disposable income will force many consumers to re-evaluate their telecom spending. Operators will be forced to reprice tariffs further, and consumers will shop around for better deals, which in turn will lead to churn. We have already seen an increase in the adoption of fixed-mobile bundles across Europe during the economic downturn in 2008 when several European operators introduced convergent bundles, offering discounts on the discrete underlying services. History could repeat itself in 2023. In the U.S. we already see moves by operators to offer converged services as we have stipulated in our recent article but also elsewhere as consumers look for discounts across fixed and mobile.
Metaverse work will continue behind the scenes
Metaverse will not become mainstream next year, but investments will continue despite continued financial woes for the tech industry. The year ahead will primarily focus on standardization. Ookla plays an active role in defining the network requirements as part of the Metaverse Standards Forum (MSF). We expect new devices to launch in 2023 and beyond at a lower cost than Meta’s Quest Pro, priced at $1,499. Apple is not participating in the MSF as it follows its usual walled-garden approach. There is talk of an Apple device that will give the metaverse device ecosystem a boost too. But for the metaverse to become real, it will have to be more than just about devices. Metaverse is about creating a virtual world, with Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia all working on creating them. 2023 will see more telco players jumping on the metaverse bandwagon and including it as part of their strategic roadmap.
Operators’ M&A activities will heat up
In Asia and Europe, companies facing challenging economic times will try to merge, with regulators having the last word on whether they can. M&A activity heated up across the Asia Pacific region recently, with deals on the table across several countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Indonesia but potentially also in Japan and Hong Kong. Mergers and acquisitions should continue in Europe as well, as we discussed in our recent article, with recent examples including the agreed joint venture between MasMovil and Orange in Spain, Iliad’s recent bid for Vodafone Italy, and Vodafone and Three UK talks to merge. In Asia, Telenor and Axiata were allowed to merge their Malaysian operations, while Thailand still awaits regulatory approval. European operators will closely follow whether Orange and MasMovil will consolidate in Spain. If they succeed, others in Europe will follow in 2023.
5G SA will power enterprises
The majority of 5G networks thus far are 5G Non-Standalone (NSA), which still uses 4G core to support enhanced mobile broadband and FWA use cases, while also providing significant capacity increases. Evolving to 5G Standalone (SA) brings additional service differentiation possibilities such as URLLC, network slicing, and edge computing. In the future, 5G SA will also deliver time-sensitive networking for high-precision devices. When RootMetrics® measured the performance of T-Mobile’s 5G SA vs NSA in Las Vegas, it found that T-Mobile’s 5G SA network delivered speeds over twice as fast as its speed on NSA 5G. According to GSMA Intelligence as of Q3 2022, 31 operators had launched 5G SA networks, with a further 11 expected by the end of 2022. In total, 123 operators from 55 countries have launched or demonstrated intent to launch 5G SA networks. Recently, Singapore covered 95% of the country with 5G SA, with operators focusing on developing innovative services for enterprises supported by encouraging regulation from the government and the regulator.
Private networks growth will continue
Private mobile networks play an important role in broader digital transformation and will only continue to gain traction. As enterprise digitization continues to gain momentum, countries are looking to private networks to address Industry 4.0 objectives. Dedicated spectrum for private mobile networks has already been allocated to industry players in France, the U.S., Germany, Japan, and the UK. We have commented on how the private networks landscape is developing in Europe and made a case for private networks in India. According to GSA, at the end of June 2022, 889 customers were deploying private mobile networks across 70 countries. Increasingly, these networks are using 5G and 5G SA. However, the 5G device ecosystem has yet to mature, so most of these networks are still 4.9G. The availability of industrial-grade devices depends on the standardization of 3GPP Releases. The industrial chipsets, based on Release 16, are scheduled to come to market in 2023. As a result, mainstream adoption of 5G solutions will likely happen later in the year.
Furthermore, once available, Release 16 5G industrial features (reliability, low latency, etc.) will need to be tested in partnership with industrial OEMs to help to convince them of the enhanced scope of capabilities of 5G for industrial use cases. As such, it will be some time beyond 2023 when 5G private networks will start to scale.
Ookla will be at MWC Barcelona 2023 – visit us at our Stand 2I28 in Hall 2, to talk with us about telco trends. In the meantime, if you’re interested to find out more about Ookla Speedtest Intelligence and its wealth of fixed and mobile consumer-initiated data and insights, please get in touch.
Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.
Ookla®, in partnership with Ibis Solutions, hosted the inaugural Southeast Europe Regulatory Summit on November 4, 2022 in Belgrade, Serbia with participants from across Europe and a guest speaker from Saudi Arabia. The summit examined how crowdsourced data can support regulators and drive effective policymaking while reflecting on the regional telecommunication landscape, its challenges, opportunities, and how to ensure consumers have good quality of experience (QoE).
Key Takeaways
Spectrum is key when it comes to 5G. CST shared how data-driven, evidence-based policy decisions enabled a 5G rollout.
The European Commission’s goal of gigabit connectivity is one of the driving forces behind the rollout of fiber networks. So far, the progress is mixed across the region in terms of fiber network rollout and adoption.
Good quality data and sharing best practices is essential for effective policymaking. Crowdsourced data helps measure progress and assess real service performance experienced by end users.
A data-driven approach to 5G rollouts will bear fruit
The majority of countries across southeast Europe have launched 5G, including Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, and Slovenia. However, Serbia, Albania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are still yet to auction dedicated 5G spectrum.
Within Southeast Europe, 5G Availability (the proportion of users of 5G capable devices who spend the majority of their time on 5G networks) reached almost 50% in Cyprus. Yet, four out of seven countries had 5G Availability below 10% in Q3 2022. 5G performance depends heavily on the 5G spectrum holding. As a rule of thumb, the larger the share of the C-Band spectrum, the faster the 5G download speed, while access to low-band spectrum has an impact on 5G Availability.
Therefore, having a spectrum roadmap is key to ensuring effective spectrum assignment. Salem Askar, a Senior Specialist in the QoS Department at CST (Communication, Space and Technology Commission), shared how data-driven decision-making informed the development of its spectrum strategy. This resulted in Saudi Arabia improving its mobile performance, and its ranking in the Ookla’s Global Index – from 105th place in September 2017 to 10th place in October 2022.
CST committed to a new, evidence-based approach to spectrum assignment drawing from technology trials and consultations with network operators, device and chipset manufacturers, infrastructure providers, end users, and network data providers, including Ookla. Most notably, CST needed data to expand its analysis of spectrum usage, the performance of various bands, and existing network infrastructure to see where investments had been made within certain bands (e.g., extra capacity in specific bands in urban areas and coverage of rural areas using adequate bands). If you would like to find out more, read this case study. Looking ahead, CST properties revolve around the improvement of citizens’ lives by giving them access to minimum speeds of 100 Mbps, releasing more spectrum for 5G and beyond.
However, spectrum is just one part of the 5G puzzle. Konstantinos Masselos, President of Hellenic Telecommunications and Post Commission and BEREC Vice Chair 2022, shared that BEREC’s focus extends beyond 5G spectrum allocation. That includes following up on developments for a number of relevant issues covering the whole 5G ecosystem (i.e., end user, interoperability, new business models and value chains, privacy, Quality of Service (QoS), roaming, roll out, security, state aid) and identifying regulatory challenges. A key focus area is sustainability and how to make networks not only faster but also more energy efficient and environmentally friendly. BEREC’s work on 5G aims to contribute to the maximum benefit for end users in terms of availability, pricing, quality, security, and other choices.
Regulatory incentives propel the move to fiber
The demand for gigabit-capable broadband access increased over the past few years, mainly due to the increasing number of people working from home and the growth in service availability. According to Speedtest Intelligence®, Romania had the fastest 5G speeds in Q3 2022, with a median fixed download speed of 131.96 Mbps and 94.29 Mbps upload speed. These speeds are not a surprise given that Romania has one of the highest Fiber to the Home/ Building (FTTP/B) penetration rates across the region — nearly 54% of households — which is partially driven by government-backed fixed infrastructure projects such as RoNet, and the special attention given to rural and disadvantaged areas. Slovenia is also progressing well in terms of access to fiber, thanks to the Slovenian government’s introduction of a next-generation broadband network development plan, which is in line with the EU’s ‘gigabit society’ plan. It is aiming to provide internet access to all households in rural or urban areas with at least 100 Mbps that can be upgradable to gigabit speed. Serbia’s growth in FTTP/B connections is gaining pace as well, with Yettel’s entry into the fixed segment in November 2021 resulting in increased market competition. Pavle Mijuskovic, Deputy Executive Director, the Department for Electronic Communication Networks and Services (EKIP) of Montenegro shared that (FTTH/B) networks covered around 70% of households, while the real subscriptions are much lower — only about 45% of households. The need to close the gap in rural areas is something that Montenegro focuses on now. Mr. Mijuskovic also highlighted that widespread fiber rollout necessitated a change in the way infrastructure is deployed: putting cables underground at lower power grades and reusing the post or street lights to deliver fiber to households.
During the panel session, Mr. Masselos shared his view that “development of broadband to the home is a very important topic,” with regulatory actions in place to achieve a target of all homes across the EU to have ‘gigabit connectivity’ by 2030. He brought attention to the fact that in Greece there is a significant gap between fiber rollout and adoption. Despite improvements in Fiber to the Premise (FTTP) coverage, which stood at roughly 20% of households in 2021 (an increase from 7% in 2019) the actual take-up is in the low single-digit partially because of the higher cost of fiber subscription. Greece is also looking to promote open wholesale networks to increase coverage and prevent overbuilding of fiber networks. With regards to FTTH deployment and adoption, Mr. Masselos emphasized the need to formulate policies that will encourage investment and will also support the demand side so that fiber infrastructure is accessible and economically viable in the long term. In addition to being available, services over FTTH/FTTP must also be competitively priced.
The power of data in understanding a digital divide
The vast majority of operators in the region plan to retire copper networks and migrate their DSL users over to FTTH/P. As such, fiber investment will remain a priority for telcos and will often be supported by subsidies, EU funding, and co-investment. At the European level, the policy goal is for every European household to have access to high-speed internet coverage by 2025 and gigabit connectivity by 2030. Regulators, alongside BEREC and the European Commission, work to promote connectivity and enable access to high-speed networks. Therefore, it’s vital to understand the real service performance as experienced by end users. Bryan Darr, Vice President, Smart Communities at Ookla shared how crowdsourced data can be used by governments to help them measure progress.
Darr shared a snapshot of fixed network performance in Central Serbia by layering the speeds with the fastest speeds on top, providing evidence of where broadband speeds are being met and where they are not (see map above). Whereas fiber penetration is increasing across Serbia, there are still areas where users do not experience speeds beyond 25 Mbps (red dots on the map). What our data reveals is that good performance tends to be centered in urban and metropolitan areas. Similarly, the OECD report “Bridging Digital Divides in G20 Countries” found that in rural areas of the EU and G-20 countries, fixed broadband download speeds are close to 50% slower than speeds in cities and urban hubs.
Similarly, using Ookla Cell Analytics™ data we can identify poor coverage areas and assist with network planning to optimize mobile network connectivity and performance. It all starts with understanding service availability, including signal strength (RSRP), signal quality (RSRQ), and areas of high demand. Customer throughput depends on capacity; even though there might be a high signal strength and good network quality, the actual speed is determined by network capacity which depends on the number of devices within this location.
Good quality data and sharing best practices is the best tool in the regulator’s arsenal
Mr. Masselos shared that good quality data is a necessity for efficient policymaking and EETT has done work in this space already. For example, by looking at broadband prices versus performance and QoS across Greece and other countries, “we see these comparisons cannot be one dimensional, but two dimensional. I feel we need to do more of these types of analyses and develop relevant methodologies.” Mr. Askar of CST echoed this sentiment by saying that to achieve goals regulators ought to bring knowledge from different parts of the world. Pavle Mijušković of EKIP stressed that to overcome the digital divide there is a need to use a combination of all available technologies to provide services. Furthermore, he suggested the improvement of capacities and capabilities will help drive digital transformation and strengthen the digital awareness of society.
Ookla’s Co-Founder and CEO Doug Suttles summed up the event by saying that a hidden benefit Ookla can provide is to “figure out the best practices, as relationships with operators in 150 countries help a lot on that. Having regulators exchange knowledge on how to create better connectivity for cost-effectiveness, is vital to our industry.” Our event partner, Ibis Solutions, a software products vendor in the southeast Europe region, also underlined the potential of Ookla metrics for regulatory agencies such as public portals with new features. Vladimir Rakić, Software Development Director at Ibis Solutions summarized the summit by saying “attending regulatory agencies recognized how crowd metrics could help address massive outages or network performance issues that further result in a huge amount of user complaints.”
Ookla’s mission is to measure, understand, and help improve connected experiences. Events such as this regulatory summit help with the cross-pollination of ideas and best practices. Telecom regulators who attend Ookla’s future summits will also be able to facilitate discourse on related topics, challenges, ideas on elevating the subscriber experience in their respective regions, and how to improve their country’s rank on the Speedtest Global Index™. If you are a regulator looking to make more data-driven, evidence-based policy decisions, inquire here.
Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.
Ookla® recently commented on the outcome of the 5G spectrum auction and how Indian consumers are ready to upgrade to 5G networks. We now have data from Speedtest Intelligence® to show early 5G performance across select cities as well as an indication of the growth of the number of 5G-capable devices.
Key messages:
5G download speeds reach 500 Mbps on 5G test networks
Almost 600 Mbps median download speed on Jio’s 5G network in Delhi
Consumers are 5G ready
iPhone users have most 5G-capable phones
Airtel and Jio turned 5G on
Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched 5G services in select Indian cities on Saturday, October 1 during India Mobile Congress 2022 in New Delhi. Operators took the opportunity to discuss their 5G plans at the event as well. Bharti Airtel’s chairman Sunil Bharti Mittal said 5G services would be available in eight cities: Delhi, Mumbai, Varanasi, Hyderabad, Siliguri, Chennai, Nagpur, and Bengaluru from the launch and will expand across India by March 2024.
Reliance Jio, which shook up the Indian telecom industry when it launched 4G, also has ambitious 5G plans. Jio’s 5G beta trial “Jio True 5G for All” launched during Dussehra on October 5 in four Indian cities, including Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Varanasi. Jio has rolled out a 5G Standalone (5G SA) network, which doesn’t rely on its existing LTE network and which Jio justifies for using the “true 5G” name. Jio’s “welcome offer” is available to those that receive an invitation. Users can get unlimited 5G data with up to 1 Gbps speeds. Jio plans to gradually expand its 5G footprint to deliver the Jio 5G service across the entire country by December 2023. Jio also is looking to make the services “very affordable,” according to Reliance Jio chairman Akash Ambani during the IMC event. “it should be affordable for every Indian – right from devices to service.”
Despite financial woes, Vodafone India has also reiterated its commitment to the 5G roll-out but it has not yet provided specific timelines.
5G download speeds reach 500 Mbps on 5G test networks
Speedtest Intelligence shows that operators have been testing their networks before the October 1 launch. We’ve already seen a wide range of 5G download speeds: from low double-digit (16.27 Mbps) to a mindblowing 809.94 Mbps, which points to the fact that the operators are still recalibrating their networks. We expect these speeds to be more stable moving forward as these networks will enter the commercial stage.
Jio’s 5G network showed almost 600 Mbps median download speed in Delhi
We used Speedtest® data to compare median 5G download speeds across four cities both Jio and Airtel built their networks. In the capital city, Delhi, Airtel reached nearly 200 Mbps median download speed at 197.98 Mbps while Jio almost broke 600 Mbps (598.58 Mbps) since June 2022.
In Kolkata, operators’ median download speeds varied the most since June 2022: Airtel’s median download speed was 33.83 Mbps while Jio had a much faster median download speed at 482.02 Mbps.
In Mumbai, one of the most densely populated cities in India, Airtel fell behind Jio once again, reaching 271.07 Mbps median download speed compared to Jio’s 515.38 Mbps median download since June 2022.
In Varanasi, which is considered the Hindu spiritual capital of India, Jio and Airtel achieved closer parity, with Airtel achieving a 5G median download speed at 516.57 Mbps to Jio’s 485.22 Mbps median download speed since June 2022.
The future of mobile internet in India will be much faster than what 4G LTE is achieving
According to the Speedtest Global Index™, India ranked 117th in the world for mobile download speed at 13.52 Mbps in August 2022. These new 5G results show that 5G speeds are far superior than India’s existing network.
While we need to approach these early results with caution, 5G devices are already showing they can achieve much faster speeds, at least under artificial controlled testing circumstances e.g., no network congestion and ideal network coverage.
When we cross reference operators’ 5G speeds versus the frequency band they are using, we see a cautionary tale. During the recent spectrum auction, Jio acquired the most spectrum, especially in the highly sought-after C-band spectrum, and Jio was the only operator that acquired the 700 MHz band. This gives Reliance Jio an advantage compared to providers who have acquired only C-band, especially since the low-band spectrum allows for better indoor signal penetration in urban areas and also better coverage in rural areas.
Using Speedtest Intelligence data we can see that Jio’s 5G performance differs depending on the spectrum band it uses. Jio’s 5G network using the C-band (n=78) results in performance ranging between 606.53 Mbps and 875.26 Mbps median download speed. While 5G networks using the lower – 700 MHz frequency band (n=28) so-called coverage band, gives speeds lower than100 Mbps median download speed, ranging between 78.69 Mbps and 95.13 Mbps. Airtel, on the other hand, achieved speeds from 365.48 Mbps to 716.85 Mbps deploying 5G utilizing only its C-band spectrum holding.
Consumers are 5G ready
Earlier this year, we surveyed Indian consumers and found 89% of Indian smartphone users are ready to upgrade to 5G. Operators have an existing addressable base of devices that they can target from the start, and over the past year the number of 5G-capable devices has been on the rise. Among Speedtest users, Jio saw the largest increase in 5G-capable devices (67.4%), followed by Airtel (61.6%), and Vi India (56%).
Using Speedtest Intelligence data we compared 5G-capable devices across different cities. Hyderabad was the one city where all operators have seen significant growth in terms of 5G-capable devices, with Jio even tripling its install base.
iPhone users have most 5G-capable phones
In our survey, 51% of survey respondents already had smartphones supporting 5G. The top smartphone vendors in the market are Samsung (31%), followed by Xiaomi (23%), Realme, and Vivo. While only one in ten survey respondents had an iPhone, Apple smartphones tend to be more 5G capable. In fact, according to Speedtest Intelligence data, the iPhone 12 5G is the most popular 5G-capable device in the Indian market. Jio will launch an Android-based 5G phone in partnership with Google in 2023, repeating the go-to-market strategy it used when entering the 4G market. In the meantime, Jio is working with smartphone vendors to ensure that consumers can access its 5G SA network.
These are still early days for 5G in India, with most of Jio’s and Airtel’s respective networks still in beta testing. We will continue to monitor 5G performance in India, see how operators scale networks, and assess the real-world performance as more consumers will get online with 5G devices. If you want to learn more, subscribe to Ookla Research™ to be the first to read our analyses.
Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.
Fixed broadband internet reached 86% of households at the end of 2021 in the U.K., and most customers have access to speeds of at least 30 Mbps. While seven large internet service providers (ISPs) dominate the United Kingdom fixed broadband market, the competitive landscape is vibrant, hosting dozens of alternative providers (AltNets). The U.K. fibre market also attracts new funding, which allows alternative providers to expand their fibre footprint. In fact, Ookla Speedtest Intelligence® data reveals smaller providers are sometimes the fastest across a few cities and counties.
Key Takeaways:
Speedtest Intelligence® data shows that across the United Kingdom in the first half of 2022, the median broadband download speed was 61.69 Mbps, with a median upload speed of 17.63 Mbps. Northern Ireland ranked first for median download speed at 65.21 Mbps, followed by England (62.40 Mbps), Scotland (57.13 Mbps), and Wales (49.71 Mbps).
Virgin Media O2 was the U.K.’s fastest fixed broadband provider, achieving a median download speed of 116.44 Mbps and an upload speed of 20.86 Mbps during Q1-Q2 2022. Across the 146 British counties we looked at, Speedtest Intelligence data showed that in Q1-Q2 2022 Virgin Media O2 was the clear speed leader, clocking the top download speeds in a whopping 71% of those counties. Virgin Media O2, having already upgraded its network to DOCSIS 3.1 plans to migrate to fibre to the premises (FTTP) over the next few years. The company is also planning to challenge Openreach in the wholesale market thanks to a new joint venture.
AltNets had the top speeds in London, Glasgow, Liverpool, and Manchester, as well as across a number of counties. Public funding has helped facilitate the emergence of fibre ISPs in rural areas where fibre deployment is not commercially viable. Other AltNets like Hyperoptic are already well established, deploying and operating an FTTP network in areas with high density, which connects existing and new multi-dwelling buildings.
On the road to Gigabit connectivity
We looked at GDP and PPP in 2021 across 160 markets to see if there’s a correlation between wealth and internet speeds. While the correlation between fixed broadband speed and wealth was weak, many factors can determine a country’s internet performance like consumer demand, market competition, and regulatory stimulus. There are, however, some market exceptions like Chile, China, and Thailand, which outperform their economic peers. We discussed how Thailand’s supportive regulatory environment resulted in an increased fibre adoption in this article from 2021.
On the other hand, we would have expected some markets to transition to fibre more swiftly and provide users with faster median download speeds — but haven’t yet done so. The U.K. is one of those markets; according to Speedtest Global Index™ in August 2022, it ranked 55th, with a median fixed broadband download speed of 66.22 Mbps and 18.25 Mbps upload.
Northern Ireland was the speediest across the U.K.
Speedtest Intelligence® data shows the median fixed broadband download speed across the U.K. was 61.69 Mbps and the median upload speed was 17.63 Mbps in the first half of 2022. Looking at fixed speeds across the four British nations, Northern Ireland ranked first for fastest median download speed at 65.21 Mbps, followed by England (62.40 Mbps), Scotland (57.13 Mbps), and Wales (49.71 Mbps).
The number of homes that are gigabit-capable fixed broadband reached 19.3 million (66% of all U.K. homes) in January 2022, up from 13.7 million (47%) in September 2021. Most homes in the U.K. (97%) have access to “superfast broadband connection,” defined as download speeds of at least 30 Mbps. Yet, only a third can order a fibre-to-the-premise (FTTP) service. However, much faster speeds are on the horizon with the government targeting 85% gigabit-capable coverage by 2025, and nationwide fixed broadband speeds of 1 Gbps or better by 2030.
To help realise this, the British government created the U.K. Gigabit Programme, investing a total of £5 billion, of which at least £1.2 billion will be available by 2025 to provide connectivity for areas currently difficult to reach. This in turn has made the fibre market attractive for investors to provide funding for smaller network providers that want to take advantage of this market opportunity. There are about 100 smaller, alternative providers (AltNets) offer FTTP broadband across the U.K. These AltNets come in various sizes, stages of maturity, and have different business models. With the upcoming changes to regulation, which will allow pension funds to invest into venture capital to back high-growth tech startups, even more funding could be poured into the sector.
Virgin Media O2 leads for fastest download speed at 116.44 Mbps
The U.K. market landscape is dynamic, with around 300 ISPs serving the market, but only a few offering nationwide coverage. The median fixed broadband speed in the U.K. is heavily influenced by the network technology provided by leading providers, which predominantly rely on copper-based network infrastructure supplied by Openreach. BT, Sky, Talk Talk, EE, Plusnet, and Vodafone all use Openreach, which itself is a wholly owned subsidiary of the BT Group but legally separated. Openreach has allocated £12 billion to upgrade its copper network to fibre. In August 2022, Openreach reported that its FTTP network passed over 8 million premises and is on target to provide fibre service to 25 million premises by the end of 2026.
The U.K.’s fastest broadband provider, Virgin Media O2, announced in December 2021 that it had completed its upgrade of its Hybrid Fibre Coax (HFC) network to a gigabit-capable DOCSIS 3.1 technology. Not to be outdone in the fibre race, the operator is upgrading that network to XGS-PON technology, which it aims to complete by 2028. In its Q2 2022 earning release, Virgin Media O2 stated that Project Lightning, a £3 billion network expansion programme, has been accelerating and “the cumulative Lightning footprint is now 2.9 million, [and] the company is on-track to add over 500,000 Lightning premises in 2022.”
Virgin Media O2’s shareholders, Liberty Global and Telefónica, alongside investment firm, InfraVia Capital Partners, announced a new fibre joint venture with a war chest of £4.5 billion. The initial goal is to roll out fibre to new greenfield areas, expanding to 5 million homes outside of Virgin Media O2’s network by 2026, with the opportunity to expand to an additional 2 million homes by 2027. Virgin Media O2 will be the anchor tenant of the network, but the network will be available to other ISPs on a wholesale basis.
Alternative players making headway in the wholesale market
Although Openreach and Virgin Media O2 dominate the fibre landscape in terms of homes passed, roll-out plans, and scale of investment, CityFibre has emerged as the largest alternative wholesale fibre network provider. CityFiber recently secured a £4.9 billion debt package that will fund a network covering a third of the U.K. market (8 million homes) by 2025. CityFibre is backed by Goldman Sachs, Antin Infrastructure Partners, Mubadala Investment Company, and Interogo Holding.
The reason the provider attracts such large-scale capital investment is because its fibre expansion plans are based on a long-term purchasing commitment from multiple wholesale customers, including TalkTalk, Vodafone, Zen, and 30 other ISPs. Thanks to this business model, CityFibre, established in 2011, scaled from a small start up aimed at rescuing failed fibre projects in small U.K. cities, to becoming a network that has just passed 2 million premises.
Another wholesale fibre provider, Netomnia, was founded in 2019 by the former CEO of Community Fibre and has ambitious plans to reach 1 million premises by 2023. To date, Netomnia has already passed 210,000 premises and it expects to extend across 48 towns and cities by the end of this year. Along with ISP YouFibre, Netomnia has secured £418 million in funding since 2020: £123 million in funding in November 2021, followed by £295 new funding led by DigitalBridge Investment Management in April 2022. The provider is a registered supplier in the Scottish Broadband Voucher Scheme (SBVS), which subsidises the cost of connecting a rural premise to a fibre network up to £1,500 per household and up to £3,500 for businesses.
AltNets had the top speeds in London, Glasgow, Liverpool, and Manchester
Using Speedtest Intelligence data, we looked at the median fixed broadband speeds across key British cities during Q1-Q2 2022. Virgin Media O2 led for speed in eight of the 12 cities we looked at.
However, in three cities – Glasgow, Liverpool, and Manchester – Hyperoptic had the fastest fixed broadband speeds, achieving download and upload speeds in excess of 150 Mbps during Q1-Q2 2022.
Hyperoptic, which is backed by private equity house KKR, currently reaches 1 million homes and is planning to exceed 2 million by the end of the year. The ISP committed to invest £200 million in 2022 to expand its network by laying more than 1,500 kilometres of fibre to connect an additional 400,000 homes and businesses. Hyperopitc’s strategy is to deploy and operate an FTTP network in buildings and areas with high customer acquisition potential, targeting areas with high density and connecting existing homes and new multi-dwelling buildings. Hyperoptic has a particularly strong position in social housing and works with social housing providers and councils to provide some residents with free or reduced priced fibre broadband. Hyperoptic also targets new building developments as these properties will soon have to be connected per proposed changes in the Building Regulation 2010. Hyperoptic also has partnerships with over 250 developers across the country, providing them an opportunity to deliver service to new homes as they’re built. The provider also has working relationships with 16 of the 20 largest building development companies, including Barratt Developments.
AltNets and their various business models
Across the 146 British counties we looked at, Speedtest Intelligence data shows that Virgin Media O2 had the fastest median download speeds in a whopping 71% of those counties.BT ranked a distant second, posting the top speeds in about 10% of counties, while Vodafone led in five counties. Fibrus and Gigaclear registered the top speeds in four counties each, with TrueSpeed leading in two counties. Various other providers led in one county.
Vodafone is CityFibre’s anchor customer nationwide, and the two providers have a strategic partnership. In November 2021, Vodafone expanded on the partnership, increasing its long-term volume commitment from 12 to 285 cities, towns, and villages across 8 million homes CityFibre is targeting. Vodafone initially signed a partnership with CityFibre in November 2017, which allowed it to offer fibre to Vodafone’s customers starting in Milton Keynes. In fact, Vodafone was the fastest provider in Milton Keynes, offering a median download speed of 159.64 Mbps, along with a median upload speed of 125.24 Mbps.
Fibrus had the fastest median download speed in four counties in Northern Ireland. Fibrus was selected to deliver Project Stratum, under which Fibrus will receive £165 million to bring full fibre connectivity to 76,000 premises across Northern Ireland. An additional £32 million was awarded to bring another 8,500 harder to reach premises into the project’s scope. By the end of 2021, Fibrus passed over 100,000 premises with Project Stratum accounting for 20% of these connections. The rapid growth, network expansion, and customer acquisition resulted in an operating loss of £15.5 million for Fibrus, and £92 million invested into network build. Fibrus secured £220 million from a consortium of banks consisting of NatWest, ABN Amro, ING, Sabadell, LBBW, and the U.K. Infrastructure Bank to fund its roll out.
The vast amount of public funding facilitated the emergence of fibre ISPs focusing on rural areas where fibre deployment is not commercially viable. For instance, Fibrus was chosen to deliver fibre in Northern Ireland, where Project Stratum funds fibre broadband deployments in rural communities.
Gigaclear had the fastest download speed in four counties: Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, Oxfordshire, and Rutland. Gigaclear passed 300,000 premises across 22 English counties in May, 60% of its target of 500,000 premises by the end of 2023. The provider secured £525 million worth of debt financing in 2020 with Lloyds, NatWest, Santander, and ABN AMRO, and in 2021, received a £190 million investment boost partially co-financed by the new U.K. Infrastructure bank. It has been reported that Gigaclear is working with Rothschild bankers to raise £200-300 million of additional capital to fund its network deployment. In some communities, the provider holds contracts with local authorities to build fibre networks through the Building Digital U.K. (BDUK) programme. In these communities, Gigaclear invested £9 of its capital for every £1 of subsidy it received.
Giganet, which was the fastest in Portsmouth, was the single-fastest provider at the county-level at 305 Mbps, about three times faster than England’s national average. The provider focuses on underserved rural areas, including some connected premises that are part of the BDUK programme.
WightFibre operates only in the Isle of Wight, and it aims to create the U.K.’s first “Gigabit Island.” The company has completed the migration of legacy cable network customers to a new full fibre network in 2021, and it switched off its copper network in August 2022. WightFibre’s fibre network is available to over 40,000 premises, with a target of 60,000 premises by end of 2022; 75,000 by 2024; and ultimately covering 96% of the island’s premises (80,000).
Broadband for the Rural North (B4RN) is a registered Community Benefits society. It is building a fibre network in isolated or socially deprived rural communities and also helping similar community-driven network deployments in other areas. The community is directly involved in bringing the network to residents and those in surrounding premises, installing it and passing on the skills to the next community. The fibre network was initially deployed in the rural northwest of England and has gradually expanded from there. Any profits were reinvested, with 5% of profits being paid to members. BR4N was the fastest provider in Cumbria with a median download speed of 113.74 Mbps and 127.98 Mbps upload.
Although Voneus does not have the fastest download speed in any county, its business model is worth noting. Voneus begins by rolling out its Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) solution, which has relatively low Capex and Opex, bringing communities quickly online, and then deploys FTTP. This allows the company to mitigate the risk associated with higher costs of fibre delivery in three ways:
Thanks to FWA Voneus already has an established base of customers that recognise the benefits of faster broadband.
Voneus takes advantage of the rural gigabit voucher scheme, securing a cost contribution toward every home connected.
This reduces cost and build time. Voneus has code power and PIA accreditation that allows it to utilise existing pole and duct infrastructure.
Over £30 billion investment into fibre
According to the Independent Networks Cooperative Association (INCA) report, alternative providers connected over 1 million FTTP premises, having passed 5.5 million premises with fibre at the end of 2021. Virgin Media O2 passed 16.8 million households with its gigabit-capable (but not yet FTTP) network, while Openreach reported 8 million premises within reach of its fibre network. Looking ahead, the report predicts that alternative providers will pass 30 million premises by 2025. It also notes that Virgin Media O2 plans to extend its network to 22 million premises, and Openreach has a target of 26 million by 2026. All of these ambitious plans exceed 31 million premises in the U.K. This means there will be some level of overbuild, especially in more densely populated areas. To deploy fibre networks, AltNets will spend £12 billion on fibre networks, in addition to £12 billion announced by BT Group, £2 billion planned by Virgin Media O2, and £5 billion coming from the government.
Challenges are few, labour force shortage is the most pressing
Translating the fibre investment into ROI will remain a challenge, particularly for some smaller, regional players, while increasing interest rates will put pressure on others. Industry consolidation is already in place with CityFiber buying Fiber Nation, Swish Fiber acquiring People’s Fiber, and Community Fiber buying Box Broadband. There is even more on the horizon, as fibre roll out requires significant capital investment and most players, apart from Hyperoptic, aren’t turning a profit.
Another challenge is the consumer take-up, meaning the proportion of subscriptions and homes passed. This is most efficiently done in areas that are greenfield, but where customer acquisition can be tricky. Hyperoptic recently introduced its Switch Now campaign, offering free broadband for up to nine months if a customer switches providers to Hyperoptic.
BT reported it has 26% take-up equivalent to 1.3 million FTTP customers, while CityFibre reported that in Milton Keynes, fibre take-up of 25% with other locations growing on a similar trajectory.
Access to sufficient physical and human resources to upgrade to full fibre is another challenge. To alleviate these hurdles, the U.K. government proposed that it could fast-track entry for thousands of foreign workers to help with the roll-out of gigabit broadband. We will continue to follow the fibre race in the U.K. and we will monitor what impact it will have on fixed broadband speeds. If you’d like to learn more about internet speeds and performance in other markets around the world, visit the Speedtest Global Index.
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