Sylwia Kechiche | November 30, 2022

A Gigabit Society Requires a Data-Driven Regulatory Approach: Key Takeaways From Ookla's Southeastern Europe Regulatory Summit

Ookla®, in partnership with Ibis Solutions, hosted the inaugural Southeast Europe Regulatory Summit on November 4, 2022 in Belgrade, Serbia with participants from across Europe and a guest speaker from Saudi Arabia. The summit examined how crowdsourced data can support regulators and drive effective policymaking while reflecting on the regional telecommunication landscape, its challenges, opportunities, and how to ensure consumers have good quality of experience (QoE).

Key Takeaways

Spectrum is key when it comes to 5G. CST shared how data-driven, evidence-based policy decisions enabled a 5G rollout.
The European Commission’s goal of gigabit connectivity is one of the driving forces behind the rollout of fiber networks. So far, the progress is mixed across the region in terms of fiber network rollout and adoption.
Good quality data and sharing best practices is essential for effective policymaking. Crowdsourced data helps measure progress and assess real service performance experienced by end users.

A data-driven approach to 5G rollouts will bear fruit

The majority of countries across southeast Europe have launched 5G, including Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, and Slovenia. However, Serbia, Albania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are still yet to auction dedicated 5G spectrum.

Within Southeast Europe, 5G Availability (the proportion of users of 5G capable devices who spend the majority of their time on 5G networks) reached almost 50% in Cyprus. Yet, four out of seven countries had 5G Availability below 10% in Q3 2022. 5G performance depends heavily on the 5G spectrum holding. As a rule of thumb, the larger the share of the C-Band spectrum, the faster the 5G download speed, while access to low-band spectrum has an impact on 5G Availability.

Therefore, having a spectrum roadmap is key to ensuring effective spectrum assignment. Salem Askar, a Senior Specialist in the QoS Department at CST (Communication, Space and Technology Commission), shared how data-driven decision-making informed the development of its spectrum strategy. This resulted in Saudi Arabia improving its mobile performance, and its ranking in the Ookla’s Global Index – from 105th place in September 2017 to 10th place in October 2022.

CST committed to a new, evidence-based approach to spectrum assignment drawing from technology trials and consultations with network operators, device and chipset manufacturers, infrastructure providers, end users, and network data providers, including Ookla. Most notably, CST needed data to expand its analysis of spectrum usage, the performance of various bands, and existing network infrastructure to see where investments had been made within certain bands (e.g., extra capacity in specific bands in urban areas and coverage of rural areas using adequate bands). If you would like to find out more, read this case study. Looking ahead, CST properties revolve around the improvement of citizens’ lives by giving them access to minimum speeds of 100 Mbps, releasing more spectrum for 5G and beyond.

However, spectrum is just one part of the 5G puzzle. Konstantinos Masselos, President of Hellenic Telecommunications and Post Commission and BEREC Vice Chair 2022, shared that BEREC’s focus extends beyond 5G spectrum allocation. That includes following up on developments for a number of relevant issues covering the whole 5G ecosystem (i.e., end user, interoperability, new business models and value chains, privacy, Quality of Service (QoS), roaming, roll out, security, state aid) and identifying regulatory challenges. A key focus area is sustainability and how to make networks not only faster but also more energy efficient and environmentally friendly. BEREC’s work on 5G aims to contribute to the maximum benefit for end users in terms of availability, pricing, quality, security, and other choices.

Regulatory incentives propel the move to fiber

The demand for gigabit-capable broadband access increased over the past few years, mainly due to the increasing number of people working from home and the growth in service availability. According to Speedtest Intelligence®, Romania had the fastest 5G speeds in Q3 2022, with a median fixed download speed of 131.96 Mbps and 94.29 Mbps upload speed. These speeds are not a surprise given that Romania has one of the highest Fiber to the Home/ Building (FTTP/B) penetration rates across the region — nearly 54% of households — which is partially driven by government-backed fixed infrastructure projects such as RoNet, and the special attention given to rural and disadvantaged areas. Slovenia is also progressing well in terms of access to fiber, thanks to the Slovenian government’s introduction of a next-generation broadband network development plan, which is in line with the EU’s ‘gigabit society’ plan. It is aiming to provide internet access to all households in rural or urban areas with at least 100 Mbps that can be upgradable to gigabit speed. Serbia’s growth in FTTP/B connections is gaining pace as well, with Yettel’s entry into the fixed segment in November 2021 resulting in increased market competition. Pavle Mijuskovic, Deputy Executive Director, the Department for Electronic Communication Networks and Services (EKIP) of Montenegro shared that (FTTH/B) networks covered around 70% of households, while the real subscriptions are much lower — only about 45% of households. The need to close the gap in rural areas is something that Montenegro focuses on now. Mr. Mijuskovic also highlighted that widespread fiber rollout necessitated a change in the way infrastructure is deployed: putting cables underground at lower power grades and reusing the post or street lights to deliver fiber to households.

During the panel session, Mr. Masselos shared his view that “development of broadband to the home is a very important topic,” with regulatory actions in place to achieve a target of all homes across the EU to have ‘gigabit connectivity’ by 2030. He brought attention to the fact that in Greece there is a significant gap between fiber rollout and adoption. Despite improvements in Fiber to the Premise (FTTP) coverage, which stood at roughly 20% of households in 2021 (an increase from 7% in 2019) the actual take-up is in the low single-digit partially because of the higher cost of fiber subscription. Greece is also looking to promote open wholesale networks to increase coverage and prevent overbuilding of fiber networks. With regards to FTTH deployment and adoption, Mr. Masselos emphasized the need to formulate policies that will encourage investment and will also support the demand side so that fiber infrastructure is accessible and economically viable in the long term. In addition to being available, services over FTTH/FTTP must also be competitively priced.

The power of data in understanding a digital divide

The vast majority of operators in the region plan to retire copper networks and migrate their DSL users over to FTTH/P. As such, fiber investment will remain a priority for telcos and will often be supported by subsidies, EU funding, and co-investment. At the European level, the policy goal is for every European household to have access to high-speed internet coverage by 2025 and gigabit connectivity by 2030. Regulators, alongside BEREC and the European Commission, work to promote connectivity and enable access to high-speed networks. Therefore, it’s vital to understand the real service performance as experienced by end users. Bryan Darr, Vice President, Smart Communities at Ookla shared how crowdsourced data can be used by governments to help them measure progress.

Darr shared a snapshot of fixed network performance in Central Serbia by layering the speeds with the fastest speeds on top, providing evidence of where broadband speeds are being met and where they are not (see map above). Whereas fiber penetration is increasing across Serbia, there are still areas where users do not experience speeds beyond 25 Mbps (red dots on the map). What our data reveals is that good performance tends to be centered in urban and metropolitan areas. Similarly, the OECD report “Bridging Digital Divides in G20 Countries” found that in rural areas of the EU and G-20 countries, fixed broadband download speeds are close to 50% slower than speeds in cities and urban hubs.

Similarly, using Ookla Cell Analytics™ data we can identify poor coverage areas and assist with network planning to optimize mobile network connectivity and performance. It all starts with understanding service availability, including signal strength (RSRP), signal quality (RSRQ), and areas of high demand. Customer throughput depends on capacity; even though there might be a high signal strength and good network quality, the actual speed is determined by network capacity which depends on the number of devices within this location.

Good quality data and sharing best practices is the best tool in the regulator’s arsenal

Mr. Masselos shared that good quality data is a necessity for efficient policymaking and EETT has done work in this space already. For example, by looking at broadband prices versus performance and QoS across Greece and other countries, “we see these comparisons cannot be one dimensional, but two dimensional. I feel we need to do more of these types of analyses and develop relevant methodologies.” Mr. Askar of CST echoed this sentiment by saying that to achieve goals regulators ought to bring knowledge from different parts of the world. Pavle Mijušković of EKIP stressed that to overcome the digital divide there is a need to use a combination of all available technologies to provide services. Furthermore, he suggested the improvement of capacities and capabilities will help drive digital transformation and strengthen the digital awareness of society.

Ookla’s Co-Founder and CEO Doug Suttles summed up the event by saying that a hidden benefit Ookla can provide is to “figure out the best practices, as relationships with operators in 150 countries help a lot on that. Having regulators exchange knowledge on how to create better connectivity for cost-effectiveness, is vital to our industry.” Our event partner, Ibis Solutions, a software products vendor in the southeast Europe region, also underlined the potential of Ookla metrics for regulatory agencies such as public portals with new features. Vladimir Rakić, Software Development Director at Ibis Solutions summarized the summit by saying “attending regulatory agencies recognized how crowd metrics could help address massive outages or network performance issues that further result in a huge amount of user complaints.”

Ookla’s mission is to measure, understand, and help improve connected experiences. Events such as this regulatory summit help with the cross-pollination of ideas and best practices. Telecom regulators who attend Ookla’s future summits will also be able to facilitate discourse on related topics, challenges, ideas on elevating the subscriber experience in their respective regions, and how to improve their country’s rank on the Speedtest Global Index™. If you are a regulator looking to make more data-driven, evidence-based policy decisions, inquire here.

Ookla retains ownership of this article including all of the intellectual property rights, data, content graphs and analysis. This article may not be quoted, reproduced, distributed or published for any commercial purpose without prior consent. Members of the press and others using the findings in this article for non-commercial purposes are welcome to publicly share and link to report information with attribution to Ookla.

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Sylwia Kechiche

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Sylwia Kechiche | May 23, 2022

5G in Central and Eastern Europe: Poland Still Waits for True 5G While Bulgaria Sprints Ahead

Polski

Key takeaways

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for digital transformation, part of the EU-level funding will be available to drive digital transformation.
Spectrum auctions have been delayed across the region. While Slovenia and Croatia have already completed spectrum auctions across all of the 5G pioneer bands, Poland lacks clear timelines and risks being left behind.
Bulgaria leads in 5G median download speeds and 5G Availability. Its capital, Sofia, takes the top spot across the capital cities when it comes to median 5G speed and 5G Availability.
Poland doesn’t fare well compared to other CEE countries. Poland came last in the median 5G download speeds ranking and its 5G speeds were just over double that of 4G. More importantly, though, it also seems that Polish end users don’t see the additional benefits 5G can bring, which depresses demand.
Plus has the fastest median 5G speeds while Play wins 5G Availability. Łódź has the fastest 5G network among major Polish cities.

The EU funds set to stimulate digital transformation

An unprecedented amount of funding available to European Union member states has been approved to mitigate the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The NextGenerationEU recovery fund totals €750 billion. The vast majority, €672.5 billion, is allocated to the Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRP), distributed between loans (€360 billion) and grants (€312.5 billion). All funds must be spent by 2026.

While not all these funds will drive investment into telecoms, some will have indirect impact such as green technology — see our thoughts on the discussions around Net Zero at MWC 2022. There are six pillars, one of which is digital transformation, which has over 20% of the national RRPs funding allocated. Digital transition projects include investment in R&D, deployment of new digital technologies including expansion of ultrafast broadband and 5G connectivity, and the digital transformation of the economy. The money is there for the taking, it is up to the countries to take advantage of it and funnel it into technology such as 5G to underpin economic growth.

Mid-band is most assigned spectrum across Central and Eastern Europe

We have reflected on the progress across Europe in this article. Now, we turn our attention to Central Eastern European (CEE) countries. According to GSMA Intelligence data, the vast majority of operators across the eight CEE countries — 24 out of 31 — have already launched 5G services.

As per the EC 2016 5G Action Plan, countries across the EU were meant to make low-band spectrum available for use by June 30, 2020, and mid- and high-band spectrums by December 31, 2020. At the EU level, there are three 5G pioneer bands as follows:

Low-band: 700 MHz (703 – 733 MHz and 758 – 788 MHz)
Mid-band: 3.6 GHz (3,400 – 3,800 MHz)
High-band: 26 GHz (at least 1000 MHz within 24,250 – 27,500 MHz)

The delays related to spectrum assignment range from the impact of COVID-19 on schedules to cross-border coordination with non-EU countries to weak demand from the operators’ side. However, most countries included in this analysis have already assigned at least one band for 5G, with a notable exception of Poland.

Poland is yet to carry out a 5G spectrum auction — the planned sale of a C-band spectrum in Poland was postponed multiple times for various reasons. In March 2020, Poland announced the 3.6 GHz spectrum auction to be awarded by June 30, 2020. However, due to the pandemic, Polish authorities suspended all administrative proceedings, and the current holdup is due to legislative issues.

Furthermore, Poland is also exploring a controversial law to establish a state-owned 5G network, which would be operated by a state run operator — Exatel — in the 700 MHz band. The 700 MHz band is problematic because it requires coordination across the eastern borders (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine), which will delay spectrum assignment.

Slovenia and Croatia have forged ahead and become the only two countries that have already completed spectrum auctions across all of the 5G pioneer bands. In April 2021, Slovenia’s Agency for Communications Networks and Services (Akos) concluded the sale of frequencies in the 700 MHz, 1500 MHz, 2100 MHz, 2300 MHz, 3500 MHz and 26 GHz bands. In August 2021, the Croatian Regulatory Agency (Hakom) auctioned frequencies in the 700 MHz, 3600 MHz and 26 GHz bands. Furthermore, Miran Gosta, director of Hakom, recently announced that a new auction is being prepared for the frequencies that are already in use and will expire in 2024 such as 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz and 2600 MHz bands.

Bulgaria leads 5G speeds

The important question is whether delays in spectrum assignments and supporting multiple network generations have affected the operators’ ability to deliver on 5G’s promise of faster speeds. According to Speedtest Intelligence®, the 5G median download speeds across the eight countries range from 73-407 Mbps. Bulgaria is the fastest at 406.97 Mbps, followed by Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, and Slovakia. Czechia and Poland are trailing behind, at 112.53 Mbps and 73.12 Mbps, respectively.

Bulgarian operators took an active role in spearheading 5G development. In September 2020, Vivacom launched the first commercial 5G network via Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS) in 1,800 MHz and 2,100 MHz, followed by A1 in Sofia using 3,600 MHz, and Telenor in early June 2021 in the biggest cities in Bulgaria in the 3,600 MHz band.

In April 2021, Vivacom Bulgaria won 100 MHz in the 3.7-3.8 GHz band for BGN4.6 million (€2.35 million) but it had already launched the 5G network before with a temporary license in November 2020. András Pali, Vivacom CTO stated in an interview that the operator plans to invest €120 million in infrastructure in 2021. Vivacom utilizes DSS, combining frequencies in 1.8, 2.1 and 3.6 GHz bands for 5G, so there is no compromise between coverage and speed. A1 Bulgaria, on the other hand, uses a dedicated 100 MHz band. Between the commercial launch in April and October 2021, A1 Bulgaria has seen the number of active users rise by 448% and the traffic generated by them by 771%, in excess of 90 terabytes (TB) in October 2021.

Furthermore, Bulgaria’s recovery and resilience plan assigned 26% of the €6.3 billion budget to digital transition. The plan includes measures to stimulate digital transformation, including significant investments and reforms in digital connectivity to increase the coverage of very high capacity networks in rural and sparsely populated areas and to create a favorable environment for the deployment of 5G networks and digital infrastructure.

A few operators have rolled out 5G networks before having access to a dedicated 5G spectrum holding, instead using their existing spectrum holdings via DSS or temporarily allocated spectrum. Looking at the data for Poland, there is a link between lack of dedicated spectrum and median download speed. 5G speeds in Poland are just double the speeds of 4G, compared to Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Slovenia where 5G speeds are over five times faster than 4G. Since operators in Poland deployed 5G utilizing their existing spectral assets — in 2.6 GHz and 2.1 GHz — they are not able to take advantage of the benefits that mid-band spectrum brings to 5G deployments. We have reflected on how mid-band spectrum boosted 5G speeds and coverage in the U.S.

5G Availability skyrocketed in Bulgaria during 2021

Speedtest Intelligence data put Bulgaria first in terms of 5G Availability (the proportion of users of 5G-capable devices who spend a majority of their time on 5G networks) within its regional peers. During 2021, 5G Availability in Bulgaria increased ten-fold, from 3.0% in Q1 2021 to 30.5% as of Q1 2022. This is partially thanks to operators broadening their portfolio of 5G capable devices, e.g. in June 2021, 55% of Telenor’s (now Yettel) smartphones on offer were 5G capable and offering 5G tariffs at no additional cost.

Croatia performed relatively well when it comes to 5G Availability, which increased from 11% in Q1 2021 to 18.5% in Q1 2022.The Croatian operators’ 5G license comes with coverage obligations amounting to 90% of urban areas, 99% of highways and 95% of railways by 2025. Furthermore, the license obligations include 25% rural areas coverage by 2025 and 50% by 2027. According to Hakom, 5G coverage and availability is at 60-70%.

However, five countries still had 5G Availability below 10% in Q1 2022, down from seven in Q1 2021. In Hungary, there is a public initiative in support of 5G uptake in a tune of HUF 5 billion (€13.15 million) to help consumers migrate away from 3G devices to 4G/5G smartphones in face of the upcoming 3G network sunset. On May 9, 2022 the Hungarian telecom regulator — NMHH — began a second phase of its mobile phone subsidy: owners of 2G or 3G devices can claim HUF 20,000 (€52.26) towards a purchase of a new 4G or 5G smartphone.

It isn’t surprising to see that Hungary came first when it comes to 5G smartphone shipments across a number of CEE countries. According to Counterpoint Research, 5G smartphones accounted for 65.1% of total smartphone shipments in Hungary in Q4 2021. In Czechia, Slovakia and Bulgaria, 5G smartphones account for two in five smartphones shipped. In Poland, this is almost one in three. Romania comes last. Although, these figures do not directly translate into direct sales to customers as shipments refer to selling into retail channels and point to an increased appetite for 5G devices. A key driving factor behind this is a growing availability of lower price tiers 5G smartphones. For instance, realme is seeing success with affordable 5G smartphones in Europe.

Sofia comes first in 5G median download speed and 5G Availability

Given that Bulgaria had the fastest 5G and the best 5G Availability among its peers, it isn’t surprising its capital came first as well in the ranking of regional capitals, at 441.93 Mbps median download speed and 30% 5G Availability in Q1 2022. A1 Bulgaria started a test run already at the end of November 2020 in Sofia and Burgas, and they became the first 5G city in the country with an outdoor population coverage of over 90%.

Prague performed well when it comes to 5G Availability. In April 2022, the Prague metro area was fully covered by 5G networks thanks to a cooperation between Czech operators: T-Mobile, Vodafone, O2 and CETIN, and the Prague municipality. All of the Czech operators sunset 3G networks in 2021 to refarm the frequencies for 4G and 5G. The largest operator by number of connections, T-Mobile Czechia had more than 600 5G base stations covering 10.4% of the population in September 2021, and it planned to increase coverage to 25% by the end of the year. T-Mobile uses Ericsson and Huawei for its 5G network, which utilizes the 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz, and 700 MHz bands. The smallest operator, Vodafone Czechia, covered 70% of the population with a 5G network reaching 7 million Czechs in May 2022. Vodafone is committed to extending its network reach, at the moment it uses 3.5 GHz for 5G, but shortly it will start using the 700 MHz band as well as the refarmed 3G spectrum.

Poles need more education on the benefits of 5G

When it comes to 5G performance, Poland doesn’t fare well compared to other CEE countries. Poland came last in the median 5G download speeds ranking and its 5G speeds were just over double that of 4G. It is the only country that has not yet awarded 5G spectrum. More importantly, though, it also seems that Polish end users don’t see the additional benefits 5G can bring, which depresses demand.

According to the UKE’s enterprise survey, 78.2% of enterprises in Poland have heard of 5G. Good. However, the majority of enterprises claim that the current mobile parameters are enough to carry out their business activities across three measures: speed (88.6%), reliability (86.7%), and performance (85.9%). Given that the current 5G networks in Poland do not deliver on gigabit speed promises, this isn’t surprising.

From a Polish consumer point of view, 73.8% are familiar with the term 5G. This comes with a downside, though, just over half of respondents (57.4%) believe that 5G poses health risks.

Asked what are the key benefits of 5G networks, almost half of respondents (47.5%) state that 5G will be faster and more efficient than 4G. Less than a third (31%) see 5G networks making people’s lives easier. The third preferred option is 5G’s ability to strengthen and modernize the Polish economy. Still, 18% do not see any positive outlook for using a 5G network. This can partially explain why 5G Availability in Poland is sub-10%.

5G is not only about speeds. 5G is seen as an avenue to bring additional value to the economy and society. According to a study from Ericsson Poland, the Polish economy could gain over €17 billion from 5G implementation by 2040. Considering the lack of a clear timeline for the 5G auction, the risk that Poland will fall further behind its peers is real.

Plus led on 5G download speed in Poland

We compared 5G performance across Polish operators using Speedtest Intelligence. Plus was a clear winner, reaching median download speeds of 167.37 Mbps speeds in Q1 2022, ahead of Orange, T-Mobile, and Play. There isn’t a substantial difference in median upload speeds across the operators.

All of the Polish MNOs rolled out 5G networks tapping into their existing spectrum in a Non Standalone (NSA) mode, which relies on the underlying 4G/LTE technology. The 5G auction is now dependent on ongoing consultations about the National Cybersecurity Law Project, to be discussed by the Polish Parliament. The Law may impact network equipment decisions amongst the players, e.g. Play is using Huawei and Ericsson for base stations.

Polkomtel, trading under the Plus brand, launched the country’s first commercial 5G network in the 2.6 GHz band, utilizing 50 MHz of spectrum in May 2020. Apart from Plus, all other operators deployed 5G using DSS in the 2.1 GHz spectrum band, which can partially explain why they have lower speeds.

Orange Poland, like other countries within Orange Group, will roll out 5G Standalone (5G SA) in partnership with Ericsson. This will enable 5G network slicing and private networks development. In anticipation of the 5G auction, and to stimulate new 5G use cases, the operator launched Orange 5G Lab testing services such as AR, AI utilizing the spectrum allocated by the UKE for testing 5G in the 3.6 GHz band.

Play had the best 5G Availability in Poland

According to Counterpoint Research, smartphone shipments in Poland have almost tripled during 2021, driven by the challenger brands such as realme, OPPO and Xiaomi (including Redmi and POCO). Polish operators also continue to promote the sale of 5G-capable devices. 5G smartphones as a proportion of smartphone sales ranged between 36% for Orange, 40% for T-Mobile, and 45% for Play. Yet, Play has sprinted ahead the pack when it comes to 5G Availability, and T-Mobile is catching up leaving Orange and Plus behind.

This is surprising because the Play’s 5G network doesn’t necessarily have the widest reach. As of year-end 2021, Plus’ 5G network extended to 19 million people, followed by Play with over 13 million, T-Mobile (11 million) and Orange (6.3 million). Translating this into population coverage using 2021 census data (38.18 million people), this equates to 50%, 34%, 29%, and 17% population coverage.

Play, part of the Iliad Group, had the best 5G Availability, likely because of aggressive marketing and discounts combined with a large portfolio of 5G devices and the cheapest tariffs. Recently, Play had secured a PLN 500 million (€107 million) credit facility under the Operational Programme Digital Poland (POPC) from BGK, which will also use to roll out 5G services.

The mobile operators continue to invest in 5G network rollouts. For instance, T-Mobile extended its partnership with Nokia to include the modernization of RAN as well as rollout of 5G services. The operator plans to use 4G and 5G DSS on the lower band and. when available, the 3.5 GHz band for dense urban areas. T-Mobile targets to finish 2022 with 3,500 5G base stations and 30% population coverage. T-Mobile shut down its 3G network in the 2,100 MHz frequency band in October 2021. It has also embarked on the 3G network shutdown, aiming to realize the 900 MHz used for 3G and refarm it to LTE and 5G in 2023.

The spanner in the works to achieve wide 5G availability is the controversy around 5G auctions. In October 2019, the four leading mobile operators (Plus, Orange, Play and T-Mobile), the state-owned telecom operator Exatel and the Polish Development Fund (PFR) signed a memorandum of understanding to build a nationwide infrastructure. This will be owned by the state via a special-purpose entity called Polskie 5G. The Polish regulator has proposed to assign the entire 700 MHz band (2×30 MHz) to this new entity, with a view to first provide connectivity for public protection and disaster relief services, while making it available to all operators. Reserving spectrum for vertical use is not new, we have discussed this in our recent article; the novelty here is the band and amount. The 700 MHz band is key for providing wide coverage and in-building penetration. In our recent webinar, Eric Brands from KPN explained that KPN scores well in 5G Availability, partially because they have access to low band 5G spectrum (700 MHz).

Łódź has the fastest 5G network among major Polish cities

Łódź came top as the fastest city in Poland with 90.25 Mbps in Q1 2022, it is also a hotspot for operators’ innovation. Orange deployed a 5G campus network in the Lodz Special Economic Area where 40 start-ups working in the accelerator will be able to use the infrastructure. Ericsson has provided the infrastructure for the economic area: ten antennas working on the 3.6 GHz and 2,100 MHz bands, covering approx.1,000 square meters.

T-Mobile is testing 5G SA in Łódź to enable new services for both consumer and B2B customers, including VoNR (Voice over New Radio) services on the 5G network. The 5G SA network is utilizing the 2,600 MHz band.

The Polish capital, Warsaw, is just slightly ahead of the rest in terms of 5G Availability.

We’ll be watching 5G performance closely in Poland using Speedtest Intelligence. If you want to learn more about how Speedtest Intelligence can help you benchmark your 5G performance against competitors, please inquire here.

5G w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej: Polska wciąż czeka na prawdziwe 5G, podczas gdy Bułgaria pędzi do przodu

Kluczowe wnioski

Pandemia COVID-19 podkreśliła potrzebę transformacji cyfrowej, część funduszy unijnych zostanie przeznaczona na jej realizację.
Aukcje pasma zostały opóźnione w całym regionie. Podczas gdy Słowenia i Chorwacja zakończyły już aukcje pasma we wszystkich pionierskich pasmach 5G, Polsce brakuje jasnych harmonogramów i istnieje ryzyko pozostania w tyle.
Bułgaria jest liderem pod względem mediany szybkości pobierania i 5G Availability. Jej stolica, Sofia, zajmuje pierwsze miejsce wśród stolic pod względem mediany prędkości 5G i 5G Availability.
Polska nie wypada dobrze na tle innych krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej. Polska zajęła ostatnie miejsce w rankingu mediany prędkości pobierania 5G, a jej prędkości 5G były nieco ponad dwukrotnie wyższe niż 4G. Co jednak ważniejsze, wydaje się również, że polscy użytkownicy końcowi nie dostrzegają dodatkowych korzyści, jakie może przynieść 5G, co zmniejsza popyt.
Plus ma największą średnią prędkość 5G, a Play wygrywa pod względem 5G Availability. Łódź ma najszybszą sieć 5G wśród największych polskich miast

Fundusze unijne mają stymulować transformację cyfrową

W celu złagodzenia gospodarczych i społecznych skutków pandemii COVID-19 została zatwierdzona bezprecedensowa kwota środków dostępnych dla państw członkowskich Unii Europejskiej. Fundusz naprawczy The NextGenerationEU wynosi 750 mld euro. Zdecydowana większość środków, 672,5 mld euro, jest przeznaczona na Plany odbudowy i zwiększania odporności (ang. Recovery and Resilience Plans, RRP) i podzielona między pożyczki (360 mld euro) i dotacje (312,5 mld euro). Wszystkie środki muszą zostać wydane do 2026 r.

Chociaż nie wszystkie te fundusze będą napędzać inwestycje w telekomunikację, niektóre będą miały pośredni wpływ, np. zielone technologie — zobacz nasze przemyślenia na temat dyskusji na temat Net Zero na MWC 2022. Istnieje sześć filarów, z których jednym jest transformacja cyfrowa, która ma ponad 20% przydzielonego finansowania krajowych programów RRP. Projekty transformacji cyfrowej obejmują inwestycje w badania i rozwój, wdrażanie nowych technologii cyfrowych, w tym rozwój ultraszybkiej łączności szerokopasmowej i łączności 5G oraz cyfrową transformację gospodarki. Pieniądze są dostępne. To od krajów zależy, czy je wykorzystają i przekierują je do technologii, takich jak 5G, aby wesprzeć wzrost gospodarczy.

Średnie pasmo to najczęściej przydzielane pasmo w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej

W tym artykule zastanowiliśmy się nad postępami w Europie. Teraz zwracamy uwagę na kraje Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej (CEE). Według danych GSMA Intelligence zdecydowana większość operatorów w ośmiu krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej — 24 z 31 — uruchomiła już usługi 5G.

Zgodnie z planem działania KE na rzecz 5G z 2016 r., kraje w całej UE miały udostępnić do 30 czerwca 2020 r. pasmo niskich częstotliwości, a do 31 grudnia 2020 r. pasmo średnich i wysokich częstotliwości. Na poziomie UE istnieją trzy pionierskie pasma 5G, które przedstawiają się następująco:

– Dolne pasmo: 700 MHz (703 – 733 MHz i 758 – 788 MHz)

– Średnie pasmo: 3,6 GHz (3400 – 3800 MHz)

– Wysokie pasmo: 26 GHz (co najmniej 1000 MHz w zakresie 24 250 – 27 500 MHz)

Opóźnienia związane z przydziałem pasma wahają się od wpływu COVID-19 na harmonogramy, przez transgraniczną koordynację z krajami spoza UE, po słaby popyt ze strony operatorów. Jednak większość krajów uwzględnionych w tej analizie przypisała już co najmniej jedno pasmo dla 5G, z godnym uwagi wyjątkiem Polski.

Polska ma jeszcze przeprowadzić aukcję pasma 5G — planowana sprzedaż pasma C w Polsce była wielokrotnie przekładana z różnych powodów. W marcu 2020 r. Polska ogłosiła, że aukcja pasma 3,6 GHz zostanie rozstrzygnięta do 30 czerwca 2020 r. Jednak w związku z pandemią polskie władze zawiesiły wszelkie postępowania administracyjne, a obecne wstrzymanie spowodowane jest kwestiami legislacyjnymi.

Co więcej, Polska bada również kontrowersyjne prawo dotyczące utworzenia państwowej sieci 5G, która byłaby obsługiwana przez państwowego operatora — Exatel — w paśmie 700 MHz. Pasmo 700 MHz jest problematyczne, ponieważ wymaga koordynacji przez granice wschodnie (Białoruś, Rosja i Ukraina), co opóźni przydział pasma.

Słowenia i Chorwacja posunęły się naprzód i stały się jedynymi krajami, które zakończyły już aukcje pasma we wszystkich pionierskich pasmach 5G. W kwietniu 2021 r. słoweńska Agencja ds. Sieci i Usług Komunikacyjnych (AKOS) sfinalizowała sprzedaż częstotliwości w pasmach 700 MHz, 1500 MHz, 2100 MHz, 2300 MHz, 3500 MHz i 26 GHz. W sierpniu 2021 r. Chorwacki Urząd Regulacji Branży Sieciowej (HAKOM) sprzedał na aukcji częstotliwości z pasm 700 MHz, 3600 MHz i 26 GHz. Co więcej, Miran Gosta, dyrektor HAKOM-u, ogłosił niedawno, że przygotowywana jest nowa aukcja na częstotliwości, które są już w użyciu i wygasną w 2024 roku, takie jak pasma 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz i 2600 MHz.

Bułgaria liderem prędkości 5G

Ważnym pytaniem jest, czy opóźnienia w przydziałach częstotliwości i obsługa wielu generacji sieci wpłynęły na zdolność operatorów do spełnienia obietnicy 5G dotyczącej większych prędkości. Według Speedtest Intelligence®, mediana prędkości pobierania 5G w ośmiu krajach waha się w granicach 73-407 Mb/s. Bułgaria jest najszybsza z 406,97 Mb/s, za nią plasują się Chorwacja, Węgry, Rumunia, Słowenia i Słowacja. Czechy i Polska pozostają w tyle, z prędkością odpowiednio 112,53 Mb/s i 73,12 Mb/s.

Bułgarscy operatorzy brali aktywny udział w inicjowaniu rozwoju 5G. We wrześniu 2020 roku Vivacom uruchomił pierwszą komercyjną sieć 5G za pośrednictwem Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS) w 1800 MHz i 2100 MHz, następnie A1 w Sofii z wykorzystaniem 3600 MHz, a Telenor na początku czerwca 2021 w największych miastach Bułgarii w paśmie 3 600 MHz.

W kwietniu 2021 r. firma Vivacom Bulgaria zdobyła 100 MHz w paśmie 3,7-3,8 GHz za 4,6 mln BGN (2,35 mln euro), ale już wcześniej uruchomiła sieć 5G z tymczasową licencją w listopadzie 2020 r. András Pali, dyrektor ds. technicznych Vivacom w wywiadzie oznajmił, że operator planuje zainwestować 120 milionów euro w infrastrukturę w 2021 roku. Vivacom wykorzystuje DSS, łącząc częstotliwości w pasmach 1,8, 2,1 i 3,6 GHz dla 5G, więc nie ma kompromisu między zasięgiem a prędkością. Z kolei A1 Bulgaria korzysta z dedykowanego pasma 100 MHz. Między komercyjnym uruchomieniem w kwietniu a październikiem 2021 r. liczba aktywnych użytkowników A1 Bulgaria wzrosła o 448%, a generowany przez nich ruch o 771%, przekraczając 90 terabajtów (TB) w październiku 2021 r.

Ponadto w planie naprawy i zwiększenia odporności Bułgarii, 26% z budżetu wynoszącego 6,3 mld euro przeznaczono na transformację cyfrową. Plan obejmuje środki stymulujące transformację cyfrową, w tym znaczne inwestycje i reformy łączności cyfrowej w celu zwiększenia zasięgu sieci o bardzo dużej przepustowości na obszarach wiejskich i słabo zaludnionych oraz stworzenia sprzyjającego środowiska dla wdrażania sieci 5G i infrastruktury cyfrowej.

Kilku operatorów wdrożyło sieci 5G przed uzyskaniem dostępu do dedykowanego pakietu pasm 5G, zamiast tego wykorzystując swoje istniejące zasoby pasma za pośrednictwem DSS lub tymczasowo przydzielonego pasma. Patrząc na dane dla Polski, istnieje związek między brakiem dedykowanego pasma a medianą prędkości pobierania. Prędkości 5G w Polsce są dwukrotnie wyższe niż prędkości 4G w porównaniu z Rumunią, Słowacją, Węgrami i Słowenią, gdzie prędkości 5G są ponad pięć razy szybsze niż 4G. Ponieważ operatorzy w Polsce wdrożyli 5G, wykorzystując swoje istniejące zasoby pasmowe — w 2,6 GHz i 2,1 GHz — nie są w stanie wykorzystać korzyści, jakie dla wdrożeń 5G niesie ze sobą średnie pasmo. Zastanowiliśmy się, w jaki sposób pasmo średnie zwiększyło prędkości i zasięg 5G w USA.

5G Availability wzrosła w Bułgarii w 2021 r.

Dane Speedtest Intelligence stawiają Bułgarię na pierwszym miejscu pod względem 5G Availability (odsetek użytkowników urządzeń obsługujących 5G, którzy spędzają większość czasu w sieciach 5G) wśród swoich regionalnych partnerów. W 2021 r. 5G Availability w Bułgarii wzrosła dziesięciokrotnie, z 3% w I kwartale 2021 r. do 30,5% w I kwartale 2022 r. Jest to częściowo zasługą operatorów poszerzających portfolio urządzeń obsługujących 5G, m.in. w czerwcu 2021 r. 55% oferowanych przez Telenor (obecnie Yettel) smartfonów obsługiwało 5G i oferowało taryfy 5G bez dodatkowych kosztów.

Chorwacja radziła sobie stosunkowo dobrze, jeśli chodzi o 5G Availability, która wzrosła z 11% w I kwartale 2021 r. do 18,5% w I kwartale 2022 r. Licencja 5G chorwackich operatorów obejmuje zobowiązania dotyczące zasięgu wynoszące 90% obszarów miejskich, 99% autostrad i 95 % kolei do 2025 r. Ponadto obowiązki licencyjne obejmują 25% zasięgu obszarów wiejskich do 2025 r. i 50% do 2027 r. Według Hakom zasięg i 5G Availability wynosi 60-70%.

Jednak pięć krajów nadal miało 5G Availability poniżej 10% w I kwartale 2022 r., w porównaniu z siedmioma w I kwartale 2021 r. Na Węgrzech istnieje publiczna inicjatywa wsparcia upowszechnienia 5G na kwotę 5 mld HUF (13,15 mln EUR), konsumentom w migracji z urządzeń 3G na smartfony 4G/5G w obliczu zbliżającego się zaniku sieci 3G. 9 maja 2022 r. węgierski regulator telekomunikacyjny — NMHH — rozpoczął drugą fazę dotacji na telefony komórkowe: właściciele urządzeń 2G lub 3G mogą ubiegać się o 20 000 HUF (52,26 EUR) na zakup nowego smartfona 4G lub 5G.

Nie jest zaskoczeniem, że Węgry zajęły pierwsze miejsce, jeśli chodzi o dostawy smartfonów 5G w wielu krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej. Według Counterpoint Research smartfony 5G stanowiły 65,1% wszystkich dostaw smartfonów na Węgrzech w IV kwartale 2021 r. W Czechach, Słowacji i Bułgarii smartfony 5G stanowią dwa na pięć sprzedanych smartfonów. W Polsce to prawie co trzeci. Rumunia jest ostatnia. Chociaż liczby te nie przekładają się bezpośrednio na sprzedaż bezpośrednią do klientów, ponieważ dostawy odnoszą się do sprzedaży w kanałach detalicznych i wskazują na zwiększony apetyt na urządzenia 5G. Kluczowym czynnikiem jest rosnąca dostępność smartfonów 5G z niższej półki cenowej. Na przykład firma realme odnosi sukcesy dzięki przystępnym cenowo smartfonom 5G w Europie.

Sofia zajmuje pierwsze miejsce pod względem mediany prędkości pobierania i 5G Availability

Nie dziwi więc fakt, że stolica Bułgarii zajęła również pierwsze miejsce w rankingu stolic regionalnych, z medianą prędkości pobierania 441,93 Mb/s i 30% dostępnością 5G w I kwartale 2022 r. A1 Bulgaria rozpoczęła testy już pod koniec listopada 2020 r. w Sofii i Burgas, które stały się pierwszymi miastami 5G w kraju z zasięgiem ponad 90% populacji na zewnątrz.

Praga spisała się dobrze, jeśli chodzi o 5G Availability. W kwietniu 2022 r. obszar praskiego metra został w pełni pokryty sieciami 5G dzięki współpracy czeskich operatorów: T-Mobile, Vodafone, O2 i CETIN oraz władzami samorządowymi Pragi. Wszyscy czescy operatorzy zrezygnowali z sieci 3G w 2021 r., aby zmienić częstotliwości na 4G i 5G. Największy operator pod względem liczby połączeń, T-Mobile Czechy, miał we wrześniu 2021 r. ponad 600 stacji bazowych 5G obejmujących 10,4% populacji, a do końca roku planował zwiększyć zasięg do 25%. T-Mobile używa Ericssona i Huawei do swojej sieci 5G, która wykorzystuje pasma 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz i 700 MHz. Najmniejszy operator, Vodafone Czechia, objął 70% populacji siecią 5G docierającą do 7 milionów Czechów w maju 2022 roku. Vodafone jest zdeterminowany do poszerzenia zasięgu swojej sieci, w tej chwili używa 3,5 GHz dla 5G, ale wkrótce zacznie używać pasmo 700 MHz oraz refarmowane pasmo 3G.

Polacy potrzebują więcej edukacji na temat korzyści 5G

Jeśli chodzi o prędkość 5G, Polska nie wypada najlepiej na tle innych krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej. Polska zajęła ostatnie miejsce w rankingu mediany prędkości pobierania 5G, a jej prędkości 5G były nieco ponad dwukrotnie wyższe niż 4G. To jedyny kraj, który nie przyznał jeszcze pasma 5G. Co jednak ważniejsze, wydaje się również, że polscy użytkownicy końcowi nie widzą dodatkowych korzyści, jakie może przynieść 5G, co zmniejsza popyt.

Według badania przedsiębiorstw UKE, 78,2% przedsiębiorstw w Polsce słyszało o 5G. To dobry wynik. Jednak większość przedsiębiorstw twierdzi, że obecne parametry mobilne są wystarczające do prowadzenia działalności biznesowej w trzech miarach: szybkości (88,6%), niezawodności (86,7%) i wydajności (85,9%). Biorąc pod uwagę, że obecne sieci 5G w Polsce nie spełniają obietnic dotyczących szybkości gigabitowej, nie jest to zaskakujące.

Z punktu widzenia polskiego konsumenta termin 5G zna 73,8%. Ma to jednak wadę, ponieważ nieco ponad połowa respondentów (57,4%) uważa, że 5G stanowi zagrożenie dla zdrowia.

Na pytanie, jakie są kluczowe zalety sieci 5G, prawie połowa respondentów (47,5%) twierdzi, że 5G będzie szybsze i wydajniejsze niż 4G. Mniej niż jedna trzecia (31%) widzi, że sieci 5G ułatwiają ludziom życie. Trzecią preferowaną opcją jest zdolność 5G do wzmocnienia i modernizacji polskiej gospodarki. Jednak 18% nie widzi pozytywnych perspektyw korzystania z sieci 5G. To może częściowo tłumaczyć, dlaczego 5G Availability w Polsce wynosi poniżej 10%.

W 5G nie chodzi tylko o szybkość. 5G jest postrzegane jako sposób na wniesienie dodatkowej wartości do gospodarki i społeczeństwa. Według badania przeprowadzonego przez Ericsson Polska, polska gospodarka może zyskać ponad 17 miliardów euro na wdrożeniu 5G do 2040 roku. Biorąc pod uwagę brak jasnego harmonogramu aukcji 5G, ryzyko, że Polska będzie dalej odstawać od swoich konkurentów jest realne.

Plus prowadzi w prędkości pobierania 5G w Polsce

Porównaliśmy prędkość 5G u polskich operatorów za pomocą Speedtest Intelligence. Operator Plus był wyraźnym zwycięzcą, osiągając medianę prędkości pobierania 167,37 Mb/s w I kwartale 2022 r., wyprzedzając Orange, T-Mobile i Play. Nie odnotowano znaczącej różnicy w medianie prędkości wysyłania u operatorów.

Wszyscy polscy operatorzy sieci komórkowych uruchomili sieci 5G, wykorzystując istniejące częstotliwości w trybie Non Standalone (NSA), który opiera się na bazowej technologii 4G/LTE. Aukcja 5G jest obecnie uzależniona od trwających konsultacji dotyczących projektu ustawy o krajowym systemie cyberbezpieczeństwa, który ma być przedmiotem obrad polskiego parlamentu. Ustawa może wpłynąć na decyzje dotyczące sprzętu sieciowego wśród graczy, np. Play używa Huawei i Ericsson dla stacji bazowych.

Polkomtel, działający pod marką Plus, w maju 2020 roku uruchomił pierwszą w kraju komercyjną sieć 5G w paśmie 2,6 GHz, wykorzystującą pasmo 50 MHz. Oprócz Plusa, wszyscy pozostali operatorzy wdrożyli 5G z wykorzystaniem DSS w paśmie 2,1 GHz, co może częściowo wyjaśniać, dlaczego mają niższe prędkości.

Orange Polska, podobnie jak inne kraje Grupy Orange, wdroży 5G Standalone (5G SA) we współpracy z firmą Ericsson. Umożliwi to “krojenie sieci” (ang. network slicing) 5G i rozwój sieci prywatnych. W oczekiwaniu na aukcję 5G oraz w celu stymulowania nowych zastosowań 5G, operator uruchomił usługi testowe Orange 5G Lab, takie jak AR, AI wykorzystujące pasmo przydzielone przez UKE do testowania 5G w paśmie 3,6 GHz.

Play miał najlepszą 5G Availability w Polsce

Według Counterpoint Research, w 2021 r. dostawy smartfonów w Polsce prawie się potroiły, napędzane przez konkurencyjne marki, takie jak realme, OPPO i Xiaomi (w tym Redmi i POCO). Polscy operatorzy również w dalszym ciągu promują sprzedaż urządzeń obsługujących 5G. Smartfony 5G jako udział w sprzedaży smartfonów wahały się od 36% dla Orange, 40% dla T-Mobile oraz 45% dla Play. Jednak Play wyprzedził konkurencję, jeśli chodzi o 5G Availability, a T-Mobile nadrabia zaległości, pozostawiając w tyle Orange i Plus.

Jest to o tyle zaskakujące, że sieć 5G Play niekoniecznie ma największy zasięg. Na koniec 2021 r. sieć 5G Plusa powiększyła się do 19 mln osób, następny był Play z ponad 13 mln, T-Mobile (11 mln) i Orange (6,3 mln). Przekładając to na pokrycie populacji przy użyciu danych ze spisu powszechnego z 2021 r. (38,18 mln osób), oznacza to pokrycie populacji 50%, 34%, 29% i 17%.

Play, część Grupy Iliad, miał najlepszą 5G Availability, prawdopodobnie ze względu na agresywny marketing i rabaty w połączeniu z dużym portfolio urządzeń 5G i najtańszymi taryfami. Niedawno Play pozyskał z BGK kredyt w wysokości 500 mln zł (107 mln euro) w ramach Programu Operacyjnego Polska Cyfrowa (POPC), który posłuży również do uruchomienia usług 5G.

Operatorzy komórkowi nadal inwestują w rozwój sieci 5G. Na przykład T-Mobile rozszerzył swoją współpracę z Nokią o modernizację sieci RAN, a także wdrożenie usług 5G. Operator planuje wykorzystanie 4G i 5G DSS w dolnym paśmie oraz gdy będzie to możliwe, w paśmie 3,5 GHz na gęstych obszarach miejskich. T-Mobile planuje zakończyć 2022 rok z 3500 stacjami bazowymi 5G i 30% pokryciem populacji. T-Mobile wyłączył swoją sieć 3G w paśmie częstotliwości 2100 MHz w październiku 2021 roku. Rozpoczął również zamykanie sieci 3G, mając na celu wykorzystanie 900 MHz dla 3G i zmianę jej na LTE i 5G w 2023 roku.

Przeszkodą w osiągnięciu szerokiej dostępności 5G są kontrowersje wokół aukcji 5G. W październiku 2019 r. czterej czołowi operatorzy komórkowi (Plus, Orange, Play i T-Mobile), państwowy operator telekomunikacyjny Exatel oraz Polski Fundusz Rozwoju (PFR) podpisali porozumienie w sprawie budowy ogólnopolskiej infrastruktury. Będzie on własnością państwa za pośrednictwem jednostki specjalnego przeznaczenia – Polskie 5G. Polski regulator zaproponował przydzielenie temu nowemu podmiotowi całego pasma 700 MHz (2×30 MHz), z myślą o zapewnieniu w pierwszej kolejności łączności dla służb porządkowych i ratowniczych, a jednocześnie udostępnienie go wszystkim operatorom. Zarezerwowanie pasma do użytku pionowego nie jest niczym nowym, omówiliśmy to w naszym ostatnim artykule; nowością jest tu pasmo i ilość. Pasmo 700 MHz ma kluczowe znaczenie dla zapewnienia szerokiego zasięgu i penetracji wewnątrz budynków. W naszym ostatnim webinarze Eric Brands z KPN wyjaśnił, że KPN osiąga dobre wyniki w zakresie 5G Availability, częściowo dlatego, że ma dostęp do niskiego pasma 5G (700 MHz).

Łódź ma najszybszą sieć 5G wśród największych polskich miast

Łódź zajęła pierwsze miejsce jako najszybsze miasto w Polsce z prędkością 90,25 Mb/s w I kwartale 2022 r., jest także hotspotem dla innowacji operatorów. Orange wdrożył kampusową sieć 5G na terenie Łódzkiej Specjalnej Strefy Ekonomicznej, gdzie 40 start-upów pracujących w akceleratorze będzie mogło korzystać z infrastruktury. Ericsson dostarczył infrastrukturę dla obszaru gospodarczego: dziesięć anten pracujących w pasmach 3,6 GHz i 2100 MHz, obejmujących około 1000 m2.

T-Mobile testuje 5G SA w Łodzi, aby umożliwić nowe usługi zarówno klientom indywidualnym, jak i klientom B2B, w tym usługi VoNR (Voice over New Radio) w sieci 5G. Sieć 5G SA wykorzystuje pasmo 2600 MHz.

Stolica Polski, Warszawa, nieznacznie wyprzedza resztę pod względem 5G Availability.

Będziemy uważnie obserwować prędkość 5G w Polsce za pomocą Speedtest Intelligence. Jeśli chcesz dowiedzieć się więcej o tym, jak Speedtest Intelligence może pomóc Ci porównać prędkość 5G z konkurencją, zapytaj tutaj.

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Sylwia Kechiche

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Ookla Research™ Articles

Isla McKetta | February 20, 2019

An Expansive Analysis of European Mobile Roaming Speeds and Behaviors

Last year we took a look at how free roaming was working out for EU citizens in terms of speeds and latency. This year we’ve expanded our analysis to all European countries and included data on Wi-Fi roaming behavior. We’ve also added a little insight into how roaming might affect download speeds for visitors to Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona from February 25- 28, 2019.

Except where noted, this analysis is based on Speedtest data from Android devices on 4G LTE cellular connections during Q3-Q4 2018. We included data on any country with greater than 30 samples in all categories.

Most Europeans experience slower downloads while roaming

Roaming traffic is subject to deals struck between individual mobile operators on how that traffic will be prioritized, so roaming speeds can depend not only on the country of origin but also the country of destination and the plan a subscriber has selected.

Consider the following table where an Albanian experiences a mean download speed of 54.56 Mbps at home and then 38.47 Mbps while roaming elsewhere in Europe. This is expected as a roamer does not usually have a direct relationship with the mobile operator handling their data and calls abroad.

**Mean Mobile Download Speeds in Europe**
Speedtest Data | Q3-Q4 2018
Country	Local Speed (Mbps)	Roaming Speed (Mbps)	% Difference
Austria	38.23	35.78	-6.4%
Belarus	16.15	19.49	20.7%
Belgium	52.58	35.42	-32.6%
Bulgaria	47.28	32.35	-31.6%
Croatia	43.83	43.60	-0.5%
Cyprus	37.13	20.58	-44.6%
Czech Republic	44.91	13.43	-70.1%
Denmark	48.83	34.89	-28.6%
Estonia	36.43	38.98	7.0%
Finland	39.33	38.20	-2.9%
France	39.94	34.97	-12.5%
Germany	33.77	28.57	-15.4%
Greece	41.35	38.08	-7.9%
Hungary	49.57	28.19	-43.1%
Iceland	69.27	35.58	-48.6%
Ireland	28.23	31.49	11.6%
Italy	32.18	43.12	34.0%
Kazakhstan	22.93	13.80	-39.8%
Latvia	30.88	33.79	9.4%
Liechtenstein	56.48	36.66	-35.1%
Lithuania	41.49	33.43	-19.4%
Luxembourg	50.91	25.08	-50.7%
Malta	56.34	34.27	-39.2%
Montenegro	45.45	49.97	10.0%
Netherlands	56.06	33.86	-39.6%
Norway	68.49	38.69	-43.5%
Poland	28.74	29.71	3.4%
Portugal	32.06	36.95	15.3%
Romania	36.64	30.74	-16.1%
Russia	20.91	20.47	-2.1%
Serbia	43.41	21.64	-50.1%
Slovakia	33.47	31.80	-5.0%
Slovenia	35.51	36.41	2.5%
Spain	36.07	22.37	-38.0%
Sweden	44.87	34.59	-22.9%
Switzerland	47.59	30.36	-36.2%
Turkey	38.19	28.77	-24.7%
Ukraine	26.07	25.48	-2.3%
United Kingdom	30.84	38.76	25.7%

Residents of the Czech Republic will face massive speed disappointment when roaming through the rest of Europe. Other countries with much better speeds at home than abroad include Luxembourg, Serbia, Iceland and Cyprus.

In ten European countries, citizens experience faster mobile downloads while roaming than they do at home. These include: Italy, the United Kingdom, Belarus, Portugal, Ireland, Montenegro, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Slovenia. Most of these are among the slowest countries on this list, so it would make sense that their citizens would experience better speeds elsewhere in Europe than they do at home.

Europeans are connected to Wi-Fi most of the time

Customers sometimes try to get better speeds and avoid roaming fees (for those outside the E.U.) and data overages by connecting to Wi-Fi. The following table compares the percentage of time spent on Wi-Fi by a resident of a country with that of a visitor to the country.

**Percentage of Time Spent on Wi-Fi in Europe**
Speedtest Data | Q3-Q4 2018
Country	Local Customers	Visitors	% Difference
Albania	61.9%	59.8%	-3.4%
Andorra	73.6%	69.0%	-6.2%
Armenia	61.5%	68.1%	10.7%
Austria	65.6%	36.7%	-44.1%
Azerbaijan	67.0%	70.7%	5.5%
Belarus	63.9%	58.3%	-8.9%
Belgium	71.1%	32.9%	-53.7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	71.9%	66.0%	-8.2%
Bulgaria	65.2%	46.8%	-28.2%
Croatia	66.1%	41.0%	-38.0%
Cyprus	70.9%	58.4%	-17.7%
Czech Republic	75.1%	38.9%	-48.1%
Denmark	70.4%	52.9%	-24.9%
Estonia	61.2%	45.6%	-25.4%
Finland	56.6%	47.1%	-16.7%
France	60.2%	43.1%	-28.5%
Georgia	61.4%	62.2%	1.3%
Germany	72.2%	42.4%	-41.3%
Greece	73.5%	52.2%	-28.9%
Hungary	71.9%	35.0%	-51.3%
Iceland	65.7%	58.2%	-11.4%
Ireland	67.2%	52.4%	-22.0%
Italy	64.1%	48.9%	-23.7%
Kazakhstan	57.7%	64.7%	12.3%
Latvia	60.9%	43.8%	-28.1%
Liechtenstein	71.7%	58.2%	-18.9%
Lithuania	66.8%	43.3%	-35.1%
Luxembourg	63.6%	26.0%	-59.1%
Macedonia	65.3%	52.9%	-18.9%
Malta	74.3%	58.0%	-22.0%
Moldova	67.2%	67.3%	0.2%
Montenegro	63.6%	65.2%	2.5%
Netherlands	73.0%	42.5%	-41.7%
Norway	74.7%	59.7%	-20.1%
Poland	62.5%	48.1%	-23.1%
Portugal	69.1%	54.7%	-20.9%
Romania	62.4%	48.7%	-21.9%
Russia	58.8%	65.9%	12.2%
San Marino	66.8%	39.7%	-40.6%
Serbia	68.6%	61.2%	-10.7%
Slovakia	69.6%	35.1%	-49.6%
Slovenia	63.3%	26.4%	-58.3%
Spain	70.8%	53.0%	-25.2%
Sweden	71.8%	44.9%	-37.4%
Switzerland	62.4%	47.2%	-24.4%
Turkey	61.7%	73.0%	18.4%
Ukraine	61.5%	62.4%	1.5%
United Kingdom	71.3%	54.0%	-24.3%

Finland showed the lowest time spent on Wi-Fi by residents at 56.6%. Kazakhstan was second at 57.7% followed by Russia (58.8%), France (60.2%) and Latvia (60.9%). The Czech Republic showed the highest time spent on Wi-Fi by residents at 75.1%. Norway was second at 74.7% followed by Malta (74.3%), Andorra (73.6%) and Greece (73.5%).

When it comes to time spent on Wi-Fi by visitors, Luxembourg had the lowest percentage at 26.0%. Slovenia was second at 26.4% followed by Belgium (32.9%), Hungary (35.0%) and Slovakia (35.1%). Turkey showed the highest time spent on Wi-Fi by visitors at 73.0%. Azerbaijan was second at 70.7% followed by Andorra (69.0%), Armenia (68.1%) and Moldova (67.3%).

Luxembourg saw the largest difference in time spent on Wi-Fi between residents and visitors with visitors using Wi-Fi 59.1% less than residents. Slovenia was close behind at 58.3%, followed by Belgium (53.7%) and Hungary (51.3%). On the other end of the spectrum, visitors to Turkey were on Wi-Fi 18.4% longer than residents followed by Kazakhstan (12.3%) and Russia (12.2%).

Roaming dramatically increases latency in Europe

Because roaming signals are routed through a user’s home network, latency is always an issue in roaming. Speedtest data shows that latency while roaming is a much larger issue for residents of some countries than it is for others.

**Comparing European Latency In-Country and Abroad**
Speedtest Data | Q3-Q4 2018
Country	Local Latency (ms)	Roaming Latency (ms)	% Difference
Austria	24	83	245.8%
Belarus	32	75	134.4%
Belgium	24	81	237.5%
Bulgaria	24	126	425.0%
Croatia	32	86	168.8%
Cyprus	20	194	870.0%
Czech Republic	24	86	258.3%
Denmark	24	98	308.3%
Estonia	23	78	239.1%
Finland	26	104	300.0%
France	42	87	107.1%
Germany	33	87	163.6%
Greece	27	137	407.4%
Hungary	22	94	327.3%
Iceland	18	163	805.6%
Ireland	34	114	235.3%
Italy	52	116	123.1%
Kazakhstan	35	164	368.6%
Latvia	24	94	291.7%
Liechtenstein	40	90	125.0%
Lithuania	26	108	315.4%
Luxembourg	23	73	217.4%
Malta	18	141	683.3%
Montenegro	18	42	133.3%
Netherlands	26	81	211.5%
Norway	36	109	202.8%
Poland	33	104	215.2%
Portugal	27	102	277.8%
Romania	26	131	403.8%
Russia	42	161	283.3%
Serbia	22	76	245.5%
Slovakia	30	69	130.0%
Slovenia	21	69	228.6%
Spain	45	118	162.2%
Sweden	30	118	293.3%
Switzerland	26	75	188.5%
Turkey	26	115	342.3%
Ukraine	35	116	231.4%
United Kingdom	37	107	189.2%

Residents of Cyprus saw an average latency of 194 ms while roaming in Europe. The country with the second highest latency for residents roaming abroad was Kazakhstan at 164 ms, followed by Iceland (163 ms). Russia (161 ms) and Malta (141 ms). In contrast, Montenegro had a lower latency for residents roaming abroad than Italy did for residents using their mobile phones locally.

Roaming performance at MWC

MWC, the largest mobile conference in the world, has Barcelona teeming with visitors from across the globe all trying to connect to their home networks. During February 2018 we saw an average download speed of 34.31 Mbps while roaming in Barcelona and a mean latency of 201 ms. Visitors from the U.K. saw an average download speed of 49.00 Mbps and a mean latency of 111 ms, while those from Italy averaged a download of 32.88 Mbps and a latency of 128 ms.

What will the performance look like at this year’s conference? Schedule a meeting or come see us in Hall 2 at Booth 2i25 to learn more about our roaming data.

About the Author

Isla McKetta

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Mark Giles | November 30, 2021

5G in Europe: EU Targets Require a Rethink

Monitoring progress of the EU’s Digital Decade

We recently attended the European 5G Observatory’s workshop, “5G in the Digital Decade,” which provided an overview of progress towards the EU’s 5G Action Plan targets and also looked ahead to the new targets as set out in the EU Digital Decade. The European Commission presented its vision of the region’s Digital Decade in March 2021, providing targets (the Digital Compass) for the digital transformation of Member States by 2030. Progress towards these targets is measured through the existing Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), a key component of which focuses on connectivity. The relevant 2030 goals here are to provide Gigabit access to all EU households and 5G coverage in all populated areas.

The connectivity component of DESI is made up of a mix of demand and supply-side factors, including fixed and mobile broadband coverage and take-up, 5G spectrum availability and broadband pricing. The latest iteration was published in November using 2020 data, with Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain securing the top three spots for connectivity, and Greece and Bulgaria the bottom two.

ookla_desi_eu_markets_1121-01

As 5G evolves, so should the Commission’s 5G targets

The Commission’s DESI has evolved from its inception in 2014 to now track the Digital Compass’ targets. However, 5G is a rapidly evolving technology, and it was clear from the discussion during the Observatory’s workshop that there will be a need to review the actual targets and by implication the measurement criteria. The key concern lies in the “5G everywhere” target, both from a coverage and a performance perspective. As the end goal is the digital transformation of Member States, 5G coverage should be extended beyond the current target of all populated areas, to provide greater geographical coverage — in particular to support emerging vertical industry needs, for example in agriculture or logistics.

In terms of 5G performance, the ITU’s IMT-2020 requirements are for a user-experienced data rate of 100 Mbps download and 50 Mbps upload. However, not all 5G networks are created equally. The increasing use of dynamic spectrum sharing (DSS) means that operators can boost 5G coverage and capacity by using existing spectrum formerly dedicated to other generations of mobile technology. As a result, network performance will vary widely based on the bands used. There are also differences in 5G rollout, with initial 5G radio equipment tending to be deployed on existing tower infrastructure, and the coverage of higher capacity C-band spectrum will be limited relative to that of lower frequency bands as result.

ookla_median-download-speeds_europe_1121-01

Divergence between the DESI and end-user internet speed

What’s also interesting are the outliers and how their performance differs from their position within the DESI. Bulgaria (which came second to last in the connectivity portion of the DESI), does lag behind the European average on fixed broadband speeds, but is significantly faster on mobile speeds. Bulgaria’s median mobile download speed of 83.71 Mbps makes it the seventh fastest market globally. The reverse is true for Spain, which came third in the DESI, and where median fixed download speeds of 118.25 Mbps are well above the European average, putting it in 11th place globally, but where mobile speeds of 34.63 Mbps lag well behind the European average, and place it 51st globally. Other examples of divergence between the DESI and actual internet speeds on the ground include markets such as Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia and Lithuania.

To support Member States, the Commission has proposed a “Path to the Digital Decade”, a governance framework which in addition to the development of roadmaps at a Member State level and regular reporting on progress, will also include a framework to address progress shortfalls and support for multi-country projects. Member States have been encouraged to make use of the Recovery and Resilience Facility, an EU-wide fund of EUR 723.8 billion designed to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, from which they are required to devote at least 20% of their allocation to digital projects. As of October 2021, digital investment plans totalled 26% of the fund, of which 11% is dedicated to connectivity. With such significant public funds directed at improving connectivity, and the digital services that it underpins, the Commission must ensure that its targets and measurement methodology keep pace with the evolution of network technologies.

About the Author

Mark Giles

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Isla McKetta | December 10, 2020

Massive Expansions and Huge Improvements in Speed: The Worldwide Growth of 5G in 2020

The rapid expansion of 5G in countries across the globe was a bright spot in a year that needed one. But just how great is the news? We examined Speedtest Intelligence® data from over 60.5 million Speedtest® results during Q3 2020 to see how much speeds have improved, where download speeds are the fastest at the country and capital level, where 5G deployments have increased and what worldwide 5G coverage looks like now. We also looked at countries where 5G doesn’t yet reach to understand where good news might be on the horizon.

We have only included countries with commercially available 5G on these lists in order to provide a more accurate view of the performance consumers can reasonably expect. While our data shows results for many countries where 5G is not yet commercially available, these tests are likely results from engineers testing their own networks. In addition, we’re only providing analysis for countries with more than 200 samples during Q3 2020. The bars shown in our charts are 95% confidence intervals, which represent the range of values in which the true value is likely to be. Countries marked in tables with an asterisk first launched 5G commercially in 2020.

5G downloads were 954% faster than 4G at the global level

The worldwide median download speed over 5G was 954% faster than that over 4G during Q3 2020. Median upload speed over 5G was 311% faster than that over 4G. Consumers are eagerly adopting the new technology and many have wanted to measure the full throughput capacity of their network connection. In Q3 2020 alone, there were 4,324,788 Speedtest results over 5G.
Median-Speeds-Worldwide_1220-1

United Arab Emirates had the fastest 5G

United Arab Emirates topped the list of countries with the fastest top 10% 5G download speed in Q3 2020. Top 10% (or 90th percentile) measures the speeds seen by the fastest 10% of users and is a way to gauge what each country’s networks are capable of. Saudi Arabia was second for top 10% 5G download speed, Norway third, Spain fourth and Japan fifth.
Fastest-Countries-Top-5G-Download-Speed_1220-2

Another way to measure 5G performance is to look at median 5G download speed, which is a better predictor of the kind of performance most 5G customers can expect. Norway was the country with the fastest median download speed over 5G during Q3 2020. U.A.E. was second in this category, South Africa third, Saudi Arabia fourth and Spain fifth.
Fastest-Countries-Median-5G-Download-Speed_1220-2

It’s notable that Japan was on the list of 10 countries with the fastest top 10% 5G download speed but not on the list of 10 countries with the fastest median download speed over 5G. No matter how fast a country’s mobile infrastructure is, many other factors go into median 5G speeds, including device adoption and spectrum allocation.

Abu Dhabi tops list of 5G speeds in world capitals

Our examination of 5G performance for 18 world capital cities with 5G during Q3 2020 found that Abu Dhabi had the fastest median download speed over 5G at 546.81 Mbps. Riyadh was second, Madrid third, Seoul fourth and Kuwait City fifth. As we saw at the country level, median upload speed was much lower than download speed.
Median-5G-Performance-Capitals_1220-2

How 5G performance and time spent compare within regions

We looked more closely at 5G performance across several intergovernmental organizations and trade blocs to get a better sense of how countries are performing in comparison to their neighbors and trade partners. We also calculated Time Spent on 5G, the proportion of time that users with 5G-capable devices spent on 5G, for each country.

Italy had the fastest 5G among G7 countries, U.S. the slowest

Italy had the fastest median download speed over 5G of all the G7 countries. Japan was second, Canada third, the U.K. fourth and Germany fifth. The U.S. had the highest Time Spent on 5G, followed by Canada. For a deeper analysis of 5G in the U.K., read our previous coverage. Because France launched commercially available 5G only within the last couple of weeks, we have not included it on this table.
5G-Performance-G7-Countries_1220

South Africa was the only country in the African Union with sufficient 5G to rate

As we saw above, South Africa’s impressive median download speed over 5G ranked the country third in the world during Q3 2020. South Africa was only one of two countries in the African Union to have commercially available 5G during Q3 2020. The other, Madagascar, did not have sufficient samples to properly analyze. Time Spent on 5G in South Africa was very low, an indication that 5G is not yet widely available there.
5G-Performance-Africa_1220

South Korea had the fastest 5G in APEC countries, U.S. the slowest

A median download speed over 5G of 411.11 Mbps put South Korea comfortably at the top of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries with the fastest 5G during Q3 2020. Thailand was second, Australia third, China fourth and Taiwan fifth. 5G speeds represented the largest improvement over 4G in the Philippines where the median download speed over 4G during Q3 2020 (9.36 Mbps) was substantially lower than that of other countries on this list.

South Korea and the U.S. tied for highest Time Spent on 5G among APEC countries during Q3 2020, followed by Hong Kong and Taiwan.
5G-Performance-APEC_1220

Spain had the fastest 5G in the E.U., Poland the slowest

Spain showed the fastest median download speed over 5G among the 11 European Union (E.U.) countries with sufficient 5G samples to rank during Q3 2020. Hungary was second, Finland third, Romania fourth and Ireland fifth. Spain’s median download speed over 5G also represented the largest gain over 4G among all of these countries, partially because Spain had the second slowest median download speed over 4G. France is not included on this list because 5G did not become commercially available in the country until after Q3 2020.

The Netherlands had the highest Time Spent on 5G among E.U. countries during Q3 2020, indicating that customers with 5G phones are able to spend far more time on 5G there than in other E.U. countries. Denmark was second for Time Spent on 5G among EU countries in Q3 2020 and Finland third.
5G-Performance-EU_1220

U.A.E had the fastest 5G in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

With the second fastest median download speed over 5G in the world, U.A.E. was also the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) country with the fastest 5G during Q3 2020. Saudi Arabia was second and Qatar third. While Oman does have commercially available 5G, there were insufficient samples in the country during Q3 2020 to properly analyze performance.

5G represented the largest improvement over 4G in Kuwait and Bahrain, countries that had slower median download speeds over 4G than their neighbors.

Time Spent on 5G was relatively high in all the GCC countries on this list, except Bahrain, when compared to other countries in the world during Q3 2020. Qatar showed the highest Time Spent on 5G among GCC countries in Q3 2020 at 16.0%. U.A.E. was second and Saudi Arabia third.
5G-Performance-GCC_1220

Brazil was the only MERCOSUR country with sufficient 5G to rate

Brazil’s median download speed over 5G of 84.60 Mbps during Q3 2020 may not seem fast for 5G, but it still puts Brazil well ahead of other countries in the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), most of which do not yet have 5G at all. We did see 5G results in Colombia, but there were insufficient samples to properly compare.

Time Spent on 5G in Brazil during Q3 2020 was not quite one percent, indicating that customers do not have much access to 5G yet.
5G-Performance-MERCOSUR_1220

The U.S., Europe and Asia see widespread 5G coverage

Data from Cell Analytics™ shows a global view of 5G coverage in Q3 2020. This map, based on 5G connectivity data for opted-in Speedtest users, shows that 5G is spreading rapidly across the U.S., Europe, the Arabian Peninsula and Asia. In other regions, 5G is primarily available in larger cities, if at all.
Global-5G-Coverage_1220

99 countries worldwide had 5G, in 14,643 total cities

The number of countries with 5G deployments increased 62.3% between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020, with 99 countries having 5G deployments at the end of Q3 2020, according to the Ookla 5G Map™. There were 14,643 cities worldwide with 5G deployments at the end of Q3 2020, a 1,671% increase over Q3 2019. The total number of deployments worldwide was 17,046. The counts here and throughout this section include commercially available 5G as well as 5G networks with limited availability and those in pre-release.

Countries with the Most 5G Cities

Ookla 5G Map™ | Q3 2020

Country	Numbers of Cities with 5G
United States	7,583
Germany	2,312
Austria	1,104
Netherlands*	1,009
Switzerland	554
Thailand*	325
Ireland	214
Puerto Rico	187
United Kingdom	169
Kuwait	97

The U.S. had the most cities with 5G deployments at the end of Q3 2020 with 7,583. Germany was second, Austria third, the Netherlands fourth and Switzerland fifth. A deployment is when a provider has some level of 5G presence in a city. A city can have multiple deployments when more than one provider is present.

Countries with the Largest Growth in Number of Deployments

Ookla 5G Map™ | Q3 2020

Country	5G Deployments as of Q3 2020	% Change Q3 2020 vs Q3 2019
Netherlands*	1,071	50,350%
Thailand*	451	32,401%
United States	7,808	21,566%
Germany	2,417	11,460%
Canada*	93	7,600%
Austria	1,173	4,918%
Ireland	236	4,180%
Poland	81	3,150%
Japan*	75	2,050%
Oman	50	2,000%

The Netherlands showed the largest percentage change in the number of 5G deployments between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020 with a 50,350% jump from two deployments in Q3 2019 to 1,071 in Q3 2020. Thailand saw the second largest percentage increase, the U.S. third, Germany fourth and Canada fifth.

Most early trials and commercial deployments of 5G spectrum allocations around the world have been centered around fallow swaths of the mid-band (3.3 GHz – 4.2 GHz) spectrum. With the recent commercialization of Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS) across all major 5G infrastructure vendors, there is now increasing demand for 5G support on many existing 4G frequencies, ranging from 600 MHz to 2.5 GHz. In unique 5G markets like Japan, there is an additional need for the 4.5 GHz band as well as the millimeter wave (FR2).

In the United States, early deployments leveraged millimeter wave frequency bands in the 28 GHz and the 39 GHz, which delivered impressive speeds in a very constrained footprint. The rapid 5G deployment in the 600 MHz band has added a substantial nationwide 5G footprint — and with that, much wider 5G availability for many more Americans. With the recent merger between T-Mobile and Sprint, the deployment of 2.5 GHz spectrum has been significantly accelerated, which should improve both network efficiency and user experience on T-Mobile’s network. Additionally, next year’s availability of 5G Carrier Aggregation will allow T-Mobile to combine 600 MHz with 2.5 GHz to deliver improved 5G speeds on top of the existing nationwide footprint. In addition, DSS has recently been deployed by AT&T and Verizon, which allows operators to choose from existing low-band spectrum assets (850 MHz) and deliver both LTE and 5G at the same time. This feature alone doesn’t add a significant boost in perceived user experience, but will certainly improve the 5G footprint.

China showed the highest percentage of 5G test samples

Another way to measure 5G adoption is to look at the proportion of samples taken over 5G relative to the total number of samples on all technologies. Speedtest Intelligence is uniquely positioned to measure global growth in 5G because of the worldwide adoption of Speedtest apps. China had the highest percentage of 5G Speedtest results compared to other mobile technology types in Q3 2020 at 18.9%. South Korea was second, Hong Kong third, Puerto Rico fourth and Qatar fifth.

Countries with the Most 5G

Speedtest Intelligence^® | Q3 2020

Country	5G Samples as a % of Total
China	18.9%
South Korea	15.8%
Hong Kong (S.A.R.)*	7.9%
Puerto Rico	6.7%
Qatar	5.7%
United States	5.5%
Netherlands*	4.9%
United Arab Emirates	4.6%
Kuwait	4.6%
Australia	4.2%

What 5G will look like in 2021

With recently announced device chipset advancements expected in 2021, including 5G Carrier Aggregation, operators will be able to combine two 5G frequency bands in the sub-6GHz (FR1) range, allowing not only faster speeds, but also greater coverage. More importantly, the ability to combine Frequency Division Duplexing (FDD) and Time Division Duplexing (TDD) FR1 channels will enable operators to leverage low-band frequencies (sub-1GHz) for uplink transmissions (user device to cell site), while combining the low-band with the mid-band (2.5 GHz, 3.5 GHz) on the downlink. This should significantly expand the availability of fast 5G download speeds across larger geographies.

Similarly, DSS — which is a stepping stone to standalone 5G and allows for the simultaneous delivery of 4G and 5G technology on the same spectrum slice — will enable operators to combine already-deployed FDD spectrum with dedicated mid-band spectrum for an enhanced standalone 5G experience. This will unlock the full potential of 5G networks, such as ultra low latency and network slicing, while delivering an improved mobile experience to users.

Where 5G fails to reach

During Q3 2020 Speedtest Intelligence showed 55 countries in the world (with more than 200 samples) where more than 20% of samples were from 2G and 3G connections (combined). These are countries where, in many cases, 5G is still aspirational. As excited as we are about the expansion of 5G, we do not want to see these countries left behind.

Countries That Still Rely Heavily on 2G and 3G Connections

Speedtest Intelligence^® | Q3 2020

Country	2G & 3G Samples	4G Samples
Turkmenistan	74.9%	25.1%
Rwanda	52.3%	47.7%
Iraq	49.4%	50.6%
Belarus	46.5%	53.5%
Afghanistan	46.0%	54.0%
Antigua and Barbuda	40.2%	59.8%
Tajikistan	40.2%	59.8%
Suriname	39.7%	60.3%
Haiti	37.7%	62.3%
Syria	37.5%	62.5%
Ghana	36.0%	64.0%
Ethiopia	35.0%	65.0%
Mozambique	34.7%	65.3%
Benin	34.3%	65.7%
Angola	34.1%	65.9%
El Salvador	32.5%	67.5%
Moldova	31.8%	68.2%
Venezuela	30.3%	69.7%
Tanzania	30.0%	70.0%
Papua New Guinea	29.5%	70.5%
Jamaica	29.4%	70.6%
Sudan	29.2%	70.8%
Algeria	29.0%	71.0%
Namibia	28.5%	71.5%
Zimbabwe	28.5%	71.5%
Somalia	28.4%	71.6%
Nicaragua	28.1%	71.9%
Armenia	28.1%	71.9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	28.1%	71.9%
Uzbekistan	27.8%	72.2%
Cameroon	27.5%	72.5%
Zambia	27.4%	72.6%
Uganda	26.6%	73.4%
Trinidad and Tobago	26.6%	73.4%
Honduras	26.5%	73.5%
Bangladesh	26.3%	73.7%
Burkina Faso	26.0%	74.0%
Ukraine	25.8%	74.2%
Nigeria	25.7%	74.3%
DR Congo	24.6%	75.4%
Costa Rica	24.3%	75.7%
Botswana	24.1%	75.9%
Libya	22.9%	77.1%
Azerbaijan	22.9%	77.1%
Ecuador	22.8%	77.2%
Mali	22.4%	77.6%
Mongolia	21.8%	78.2%
Maldives	21.6%	78.4%
Mauritius	21.3%	78.7%
Tunisia	21.0%	79.0%
Belize	20.7%	79.3%
Laos	20.5%	79.5%
Kenya	20.3%	79.7%
Paraguay	20.1%	79.9%
Côte d’Ivoire	20.0%	80.0%

In markets where 4G layers haven’t been deployed or substantially covered, end users fall back to the circuit-switched network (2G, 3G). These decades-old network technologies should be sufficient for basic voice and texting, social media, and navigation apps, but cannot deliver rich media experiences or video calling. Unfortunately, many countries on this list are places where consumers rely primarily on mobile phones for their internet connectivity.

5G is radically changing the speeds and capabilities of mobile networks around the world. If the current growth rate continues, it won’t be long before most nations have access to 5G. But there are nations and subsets of subscribers who may not see the benefits of 5G for years to come. We will continue reporting on 5G achievements across the globe and watching speeds in general on the Speedtest Global Index™.

About the Author

Isla McKetta

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Isla McKetta | October 8, 2018

Just How Much Does Roaming Affect Mobile Performance in Southeast Europe?

This week the Wholesale Agreements and Solutions Group (WAS) will be meeting in Rovinj, Croatia as part of a GSMA working group to discuss the big deals that will affect worldwide roaming speeds over the next year. That made us curious — what kinds of roaming speeds might these telecom execs experience while they’re deciding our roaming fate?

We looked into Speedtest Intelligence® data from over 2.7 million consumer-initiated tests in Southeast Europe during Q1-Q2 2018 on devices using LTE networks to see how median speeds and latency were affected as mobile users roamed around the region. Roaming speeds include Android results only.

Though we expected to see a general decline in speeds and increase in latency (the time it takes for data to travel from your phone to the nearest server and back) while roaming, we were surprised by how much a person’s home country affected their mobile roaming experience.

Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Montenegro are excluded from this analysis due to insufficient sample size during the examined time period. Data for Serbia includes the disputed region of Kosovo.

There’s no correlation between local download speed and decrease in roaming speed

**Median Local vs. Roaming Download Speeds**
Southeast Europe
Q1-Q2 2018 | 4G LTE
Country	Local Download (Mbps)	Roaming Download (Mbps)	% Difference
Bulgaria	37.97	18.21	-52.0%
Croatia	34.50	31.67	-8.2%
Greece	33.61	27.87	-17.1%
Romania	28.47	20.89	-26.6%
Serbia	34.19	30.32	-11.3%
Slovenia	26.26	28.26	7.6%
Turkey	29.93	21.75	-27.3%

Slovenians are the only Southeast Europeans who see better mobile speeds while traveling than they do at home. Considering Slovenia’s local mobile download speed is the lowest on this list, we can presume that residents are encountering better infrastructure abroad and seeing better speeds as a result.

That does not that mean that countries with the fastest local download speeds see the largest declines in speed when roaming. For example, Bulgaria shows the fastest median mobile download speed in Southeast Europe and sees the largest declines in download speed when roaming. But Croatia, which has the second fastest mobile download speed in Southeast Europe, shows the second smallest decline in download speed when roaming.

On the other hand, Romania, which ranks sixth on our list for median local download speed shows the third largest decline when roaming. While Turkey, which ranks fifth in the region for local download speed, shows the second largest decline when roaming.

In fact, roaming speed is affected by in-country infrastructure and also by how operators prioritize out of country traffic. These decisions are made between each individual operator in each individual country, often at meetings like those in Rovinj this week where operators negotiate who has access to what networks and how much that access should cost them. This is why some operators offer extensive roaming packages and why those often come at a cost.

Roaming dramatically increases latency

Latency is measured in milliseconds, and a mobile user usually won’t notice a lag between taking an action on their phone and seeing an expected result when latency is low. Even in Croatia, the country with the highest local latency on our list, latency is very close to what the rest of the countries experience.

**Median Local vs. Roaming Latency**
Southeast Europe
Q1-Q2 2018 | 4G LTE
Country	Local Latency (ms)	Roaming Latency (ms)	% Difference
Bulgaria	23	135	487.0%
Croatia	26	84	223.1%
Greece	23	144	526.1%
Romania	24	118	391.7%
Serbia	19	31	63.2%
Slovenia	19	67	252.6%
Turkey	24	130	441.7%

However, latency can skyrocket when roaming as some operators route a user’s traffic back through their home country, which leads to a much different user experience. This is definitely what we found in our analysis of Southeast Europe. As we saw with download speed, the percentage change between local and roaming latency was not correlated to local latency.

For example, Slovenia and Serbia show the same median local latencies (19 ms), but Slovenia shows a large increase in latency while Serbia’s increase is the smallest on our list.

This is because latency, like roaming speed, is a lot more complex than simply what infrastructure consumers are on. There’s also the matter of network agreements… the very deals that telecom execs are hammering out right now in Rovinj.

Are you at WAS? Stop by booth 23. We’d love to share a sneak peek of our roaming data with you. We have the insights and data for use in decisioning, sales, negotiation and quality steering related to wholesale and roaming solutions.

About the Author

Isla McKetta

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